FREEDOM (while hoping my friends stay safe)
This deserves to become one of the iconic images of human history, alongside the Tank Man of Tiananmen Square and so forth.
Here’s Sharifi Zarchi, a computer engineering professor at Sharif University in Tehran, posting on Twitter/X: “Ali Khamenei is not my leader.”
Do you understand the balls of steel this takes? If Professor Zarchi can do this—if hundreds of thousands of young Iranians can take to the streets even while the IRGC and the Basij fire live rounds at them—then I can certainly handle people yelling me on this blog!
I’m in awe of the Iranian people’s courage, and hope I’d have similar courage in their shoes.
I was also enraged this week at the failure of much of the rest of the world to help, to express solidarity, or even to pay much attention to the Iranian’s people plight (though maybe that’s finally changing this weekend).
I’ve actually been working on a CS project with a student in Tehran. Because of the Internet blackout, I haven’t heard from him in days. I pray that he’s safe. I pray that all my friends and colleagues in Iran, and their family members, stay safe and stay strong.
If any Iranian Shtetl-Optimized reader manages to get onto the Internet, and would like to share an update—anonymously if desired, of course—we’d all be obliged.
May the Iranian people be free from tyranny soon.
Update: I’m sick with fear for my many colleagues and friends in Iran and their families. I hope they’re still alive; because of the communications blackout, I have no idea. Perhaps 12,000 have already been machine-gunned in the streets while the unjust world, the hypocrites and cowards who marched against a tiny democracy for defending itself—they invent excuses or explicitly defend the murderous regime in Tehran. WTF is the US waiting for? Trump’s “red line” was crossed days ago. May we give the Ayatollah the martyrdom he preaches, and liberate his millions of captives.
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Comment #1 January 11th, 2026 at 6:07 pm
Thank you! A regime that thinks that a total and complete shutdown of all communications is essential for its survival is one whose days are numbered. Apparently, Sharifi Zarchi is currently stuck in China after traveling for an IOI event and being threatened with arrest upon return. He is one of the brightest Iranian minds in computer science, and one concrete step to take would be for the academic community to offer support to him (including an academic “shelter”, if he ends up needing one).
Comment #2 January 11th, 2026 at 6:22 pm
( Fun fact is Sharifi Zarchi’s performance at the 2000 IOI, well above accomplished CS theorists such as Mihai Pătrașcu, Krzysztof Onak, Huy Nguyen
https://stats.ioinformatics.org/results/2000 )
Comment #3 January 11th, 2026 at 6:58 pm
Here here!! May the Persian people take back their freedom to become an expression of their great historical civilation once again.
Comment #4 January 11th, 2026 at 11:20 pm
Absolutely iconic. One of the most beautiful and badass things I’ve ever seen.
Comment #5 January 12th, 2026 at 3:05 am
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/oKREpvVZAWQ
Comment #6 January 12th, 2026 at 5:36 am
https://x.com/afalkhatib/status/2010416034185187609
Comment #7 January 12th, 2026 at 6:07 am
https://www.facebook.com/afshine.emrani/videos/an-iranian-tells-you-why-the-anti-brain-free-palestine-mob-is-not-calling-to-fre/1814482422590107/
Comment #8 January 12th, 2026 at 6:37 am
The crackdown seems to be much more severe this time. The news reports say there are thousands of deaths so far.
The Internet shutdown is also very severe out seems. In the past Iranian colleagues were able to work around our at least get online from time to time. This time it has been a total shutdown of internet for over 4 days now and from what I hear the telephone communication with outside world is also completely cut.
Some seem to have Starlink satellite Internet but from what I have read the IRGC is jamming them.
I don’t know what we can do to help those inside Iran. The government seems to have perfected the art of cutting the communication between people.
I cannot think of any way we can help them get online to report what is going on and organize.
Comment #9 January 12th, 2026 at 7:04 am
Everyone has a smart phone with Wi-Fi and Bluetooth these days. There should be a way to use them to create a distributed network independent of the government controlled Internet and cell phone infrastructure.
there should be a way to get call phone Internet coverage to the regions at the border without other countries like Iraq and Turkey and Azerbaijan and …
There should be a way to terminate the Iranian governments effort to jam satellite Internet and communication.
Comment #10 January 12th, 2026 at 7:07 am
Good stuff Scott. I know some Iranians. They’re good people. I wish them well. It’s awful what’s been happening in their country. I hope they can throw of the yoke and achieve the freedom they deserve. Sadly here in the UK there are no street protests about the murder of hundreds of Iranian citizens. There was however a genocidal antisemitic protest outside a Jewish restaurant in Notting Hill in London. The police stood by and did nothing.
Comment #11 January 12th, 2026 at 7:12 am
The US government and its allies should enforce the sanctions against government of Iran and its oil experts more forcefully and cut it from any remaining sources of oil revenue it has. That would be the biggest pressure lever to influence some regime insiders to change sides.
The US should also more forcefully go after the Iranian money laundering network in the UAE and Qatar and Turkey. There is a lot of money moving in and out of Iran through money laundering schemas in these countries.
And as a last resort, Israel should consider military action to shutdown the Iranian governments communication and coordination networks and public propaganda infrastructure.
Comment #12 January 12th, 2026 at 8:03 am
Both Venezuela and Iran raise the question: When should America (or any country really) intervene in another countries internal politics?
I understand the impulse to do SOMETHING. Perhaps install Maria Corina Machodo as president of Venezuela ? Perhaps hold free and fair elections (but what if they vote for somebody who is bad for them? bad for us? And how can we tell?)
But invading a country and installing someone, or even holding free and fair elections, can backfire and might not be good in the end. It has to be done carefully and while its easy to say the current American admin is not capable of that, its always been hard. The only time I know of where an external regime change worked well is Germany and Japan after WW II. And that took a lot of effort, the Marshall plan, and international cooperation. And I suspect some comment will tell me why it didn’t work after all and may have a point.
For Iran- giving statement of support for the protesters would be nice but I ask non-rhetorically if that actually does anything. (Similarly- did the No-Kings protest do anything?)
Even with good intentions international politics is hard!
Comment #13 January 12th, 2026 at 8:28 am
Talking about having balls and being enraged, it’s too bad we don’t get a word about the protests here in the US over our own citizens getting executed in the streets by the regime’s paramilitary henchmen, with total immunity… but everyone has their own priorities I guess.
Comment #14 January 12th, 2026 at 9:29 am
@ty-ty #13
My assumption is that Scott, as a rational human being, is already extremely disgusted by the blatant murder by ICE in Minnesota, but can assume that we all know what his feelings would be.
Expressions of solidarity for those in foreign countries likely is better for their morale than another of the commentariat telling Trump’s goons that they committed murder, because it’s blatantly obvious. Also, “Whataboutism” really seems irrelevant here.
As for Iran and the Iranian people, I also hope that the mass atrocities being carried out end sooner rather than later, and that Iran can join in the brotherhood of democratic countries sooner rather than later. I don’t support the Shah–constitutional monarchies are still passable but I’d prefer not to have the ability to fall into autocratic monarchy when the will decides.
I don’t know if foreign intervention will help or hinder, so I am hesitant to push for any specific actions.
Comment #15 January 12th, 2026 at 9:57 am
May the Iranian people finally be free of the regime that Jimmy Carter and Cyrus (think of the parallel) Vance helped birth and that immediately became an Oops.
Comment #16 January 12th, 2026 at 10:53 am
I hope the Iranian people will “rather sooner than later” have enough water to drink (and use) and enough food to eat. More important than whether “the Iranian people will finally be free of the regime”. Of course, one may argue that “the regime” is unable to achieve this, and I guess one reason why the Iranians are currently protesting is that they share that assessment.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Water_scarcity_in_Iran#Water_balance_in_Iran
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_economic_crisis
Comment #17 January 12th, 2026 at 12:27 pm
I too hope Iranians will be free of tyranny. But I fear what will come in its place.
Regime change doesn’t always bring what you want. Iran has experience with that in their previous revolution: a step back, followed by a devastating war and everlasting sanctions.
Other countries were also unfortunate in their revolutions. Civil war, invasions, prolonged periods of conflict and suffering.
I am not at all confident that the loudest mouths (USA and Israel) shouting for change, care so much about what happens in the aftermath. Will they take in Iranian refugees?
No. Most likely it will again be Europe that takes on the responsibility.
Will the west help rebuild, support the Iranians? Let them choose their own leader (or force the son of Shah on them?). Or will there be a crony and lucrative oil deals?
I wish I could trust honest intentions here, but I’m very skeptical.
Maybe change from within the system is better than throwing out the whole system. But even if the transfer is peaceful the transition won’t solve inflation, water shortage and sanctions quickly.
Let’s indeed pray for the safety of all Iranians.
Comment #18 January 12th, 2026 at 12:31 pm
gentzen #16
I looked at some information about the Iranian water crisis and was astounded by the surreal level of mismanagement by the current regime. The Revolutionary Guard was given responsibility for construction of water management projects and an organization formed known in Iran as the water mafia. Rafsanjani apparently wanted a photo atop an impressive dam similar to Nasser atop Aswan. This is the result after an enormous salt outcrop was identified at the reservoir location-
“ After a few experts disclosed the problem, work was delayed. But Saeed Mohammad came to rescue and with the help of Mahab Ghodss claimed to have found a solution: “covering the salt bulge with a blanket of clay.” The project was completed and officials cheered. However, within just a few days of the dam’s opening ceremonies, the clay blanket had been washed away and millions of tons of salt dissolved. The lower part of the lake became so salty that the government would have to spend hundreds of millions of dollars to get rid of the salty brine. Even now, 10 years later, it still has not been able to find a solution.”
It’s estimated that 30% of potable water is lost through infrastructure leaks. Agriculture uses 80% of the water including rice patties in the desert because the regime wants self sufficiency for food.
I don’t know any details about the desalinization projects but it appears to me that the usual mismanagement and inept planning plagued these as well.
The Iranian people will have a very good opportunity to solve their water and food problems if the regime is overthrown but little chance with the status quo governance. The elimination of funding of international terrorism and the normalization of hydrocarbon export sales will provide sufficient capital to address the issues assuming reasonable planning and management. No doubt they will receive sound assistance from the US and Israel.
If the Revolutionary Guard and militias are allowed to bear arms against a new regime then cut my optimism by 90% or so.
Comment #19 January 12th, 2026 at 1:17 pm
>Do you understand the balls of steel this takes?
+2
Another kind of courage is acknowledging that we shouldn’t expect most of the heroes we see today in Iran to firmly believe that the IDF did everything possible to spare Palestinian lives, as you so strongly want to believe.
Wishing you and your family happy new year, and good luck addressing your own domestic issues. You do realize you have domestic issues right?
Comment #20 January 12th, 2026 at 1:25 pm
This feels like THE uprising, the one that will either overthrow the regime or, if crushed, will be the final one. Trump promised to intervene if people die; a big question is whether he’ll keep the promise. If he won’t, if the regime prevails, Iranians would lose all hope for any help in the future. This is THE chance to act decisively.
Comment #21 January 12th, 2026 at 2:06 pm
Zombie #42,
“… as you so strongly want to believe.”
Trolls are so tiring. I have never seen Scott claim the IDF is perfect. All I’ve seen him do is defend it from blood libel and from standards that no other nation or national army at war is held to. You can find examples of atrocities and war crimes being committed by individuals in the armies of every liberal democracy on earth involved now or in the past with large scale war. The U.S., the Ukraine, every Allied army in WWII, all of them. In war, individuals commit war crimes. War is awful. War is horrible. Those who commit war crimes should face justice. But the IDF does not as an army have a policy of atrocity. Hamas does. The Iranian regime does.
Comment #22 January 12th, 2026 at 11:28 pm
It seems that Apple iPhone 14+ support satellite messaging bridging wifi and cell connection.
But it currently only works only in North America. If someone at Apple is reading this, I wonder if they can check to see if it can be enabled for Iran as well.
That would allow a communication path for people in Iran with outside world as many Iranians do have iPhone devices.
Comment #23 January 13th, 2026 at 5:39 am
Matthijs #17
“ I am not at all confident that the loudest mouths (USA and Israel) shouting for change,”
And I thought the loudest mouths shouting for change were the Iranian people. The US does have the largest Iranian emigre population outside Iran. Did you count their voices in the US total?
Comment #24 January 13th, 2026 at 6:10 am
OhMyGoodness #18:
I didn’t know that, and have now checked it for myself:
https://mei.edu/publication/irgc-and-irans-water-mafia/
Looks like that failure happened around 2011. So the Iranian water crisis is partly caused by “the dream of Iranian self-sufficiency espoused by its leaders”. And part of the solution “must be” to bury that dream. But I guess it will be a huge challenge, no matter who tries to solve it.
However, my impression is that the Iranian regime is way more competent and “solution oriented” than for example Baschar al-Assad. Of course, if some institutional structures exist for sufficiently long time, corruption and mismanagement can grow, especially if no efficient checks are in place.
I am just not sure whether overthrowing existing institutional structures is always the best solution. Initially you celebrate, and hope for the best. But more often than not, you will learn that there were systematic underlying problems that are not so easy to solve. But of course, avoiding waste of money for funding terrorism in the region and other unnecessary military projects might be extremely helpful, even if a full solution is likely much more challenging.
Comment #25 January 13th, 2026 at 7:57 am
For those who are too young to remember,
it was the USA (the CIA) that put the Shah in power in the 50s:
“the U.S. (along with the UK) played a crucial role in putting the Shah, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, back in power in 1953 through a coup (Operation Ajax) that overthrew the democratically elected Prime Minister Mohammad Mosaddegh, who threatened Western oil interests. The CIA helped orchestrate this overthrow, funding protests and supporting military elements, which allowed the Shah, who had briefly fled, to return and consolidate his authoritarian rule as a key U.S. ally”
Then the brave people of Iran were so fed up with that horrible despot that they revolted and put Khomeini in power.
Khomeini was actually seen in the West as a wise scholar and a great replacement!
After all, the guy lived in exile in Paris and landed back in Iran on an Air France plane:
https://c.files.bbci.co.uk/1B13/production/_105413960_gettyimages-515411182-1.jpg
Comment #26 January 13th, 2026 at 8:22 am
Ty-ty #25:
Khomeini was actually seen in the West as a wise scholar and a great replacement!
Slight amendment: he was seen by idiots as a wise scholar and a great replacement 😀
Comment #27 January 13th, 2026 at 8:27 am
Ty-ty #13:
Talking about having balls and being enraged, it’s too bad we don’t get a word about the protests here in the US over our own citizens getting executed in the streets by the regime’s paramilitary henchmen, with total immunity… but everyone has their own priorities I guess.
Very well. I’m horrified by the killing of Renee Good, who would still be alive given any sane law enforcement response to the situation that she was in. And I’m terrified, as at least half of Americans are, about what this portends about the US’s future.
I found the following passage extremely moving, coming as it does from an admitted former white nationalist, Richard Hanania:
“[T]he path the nativists have chosen requires a continuous war against American communities that do not want their masked agents there. A movement aiming for social cohesion in this way can produce nothing but a constant struggle, one with the regular threat of violence, between the federal government and its people whenever a Republican is in the White House.
But they will continue, since America as it exists is not what the nativists care about. They are motivated instead by a vision of demographic transformation, and if they can’t ever have a white America again – as it’s already too late for that – they’ll settle for the thrills that come with seeking and exercising power and inflicting pain on those they hate. It is up to us who believe in the real-life version of our country, its traditions, and the ideals that have kept people like them on the fringes to ultimately defeat this movement. May the memory of Renee Good provide inspiration as we fight to make sure she did not die in vain.”
Comment #28 January 13th, 2026 at 8:31 am
Roaming zombie #19:
good luck addressing your own domestic issues. You do realize you have domestic issues right?
Wait, we do?!? Is there some place on social media where I could read about these domestic issues and get appropriately depressed and terrified about them … say, for 3-4 hours per day every day?
Comment #29 January 13th, 2026 at 8:55 am
Scott #26
“Slight amendment: he was seen by idiots as a wise scholar and a great replacement”
Hah, I thought it would be obvious, but thanks for the correction!
The Shah, Khomeini, … yet another cautionary tale about foreign intervention.
Comment #30 January 13th, 2026 at 9:21 am
ohMyGoodness #23
> And I thought the loudest mouths shouting for change were the Iranian people. The US does have the largest Iranian emigre population outside Iran. Did you count their voices in the US total?
I was completely unclear (I rewrote and deleted stuff). Thanks for challenging me.
Yes: the loudest voices for change are the Iranians.
And those are the voices that should be heard and those are the voices that should decide – together with the voices inside Iran we currently do not hear because they are not on the street. And they alone.
But those are no the only voices we hear in the media. Actually a lot of coverage is “what will trump do”, “what will Netanyahu do”, “Pahlavi”, “the Iranians in the USA”, “European leaders”, etc and that’s what I meant with “the loudest voices”. The voices outside Iran that are pushing for regime change. Those I do not (all) see as having the best interests at heart (the definition of succes is getting rid of current, instead of dealing with the consequences of abrupt change).
Yes, outside Iran we should support the Iranians. But we should do this with respect, and also accept responsibility of the fallout from doing so.
Comment #31 January 13th, 2026 at 11:41 am
Whenever someone claims “we’re going to focus on our own hemisphere”, it’s important to realize that there are many ways to cut a sphere in half…
Comment #32 January 13th, 2026 at 12:05 pm
If POTUS does bomb Iran again in the next few days, isn’t it likely that we see a repeat of what happened June 2025?
But even more open ended because this time the objective and definition/assessment of success would be way more vague?
Btw – if I had relatives in Tel-Aviv, I’d tell them to get out asap.
Comment #33 January 13th, 2026 at 1:19 pm
Ty-ty #32:
Btw – if I had relatives in Tel-Aviv, I’d tell them to get out asap.
I do have relatives in Tel Aviv. Of course they’re watching the situation. But you might be underestimating the degree to which “neighbors threatening to destroy them” has just been a regular part of their life since … well, birth. Recall that during this summer’s mini-war with Iran, Israelis stranded abroad were struggling to get back home.
Based on Iran’s performance in that last war, maybe we’ve all been grossly overestimating Iran’s capabilities. Or maybe they have something else up their sleeve, I don’t know. But Israel now has frickin’ lasers that can shoot down drones, the world’s first that are being used operationally.
I pray that good people in both countries stay safe and that the end result is Iran’s liberation.
Comment #34 January 13th, 2026 at 3:45 pm
(KHAMENEI’S LAST NIGHT: Iran Faces EVACUATION, “ZERO DAY” as Water Crisis Hits 10 Million People)
To be honest, I wonder whether the regime has any chance to “solve” its serious troubles with its current partners:
(Russia Rejects Iran’s Deal as Iranian Regime Goes Bankrupt)
I hope that should Iran get new partners, they will be more helpful, perhaps by providing assistance to enable the burrying of “the dream of Iranian self-sufficiency”.
Comment #35 January 13th, 2026 at 4:35 pm
I really don’t like this rhetoric about Israel being dangerous. Even 10/7 and the wars since killed as many Israelis as five or six years of car accidents. Israel is doing so well now. The TA-35 is up, the shekel is up, and so on. Israel is a country where people are happy and optimistic about the future, and having lots of kids. Haredi integration is starting. Israel has a very bright future and it’s super safe.
Comment #36 January 13th, 2026 at 4:44 pm
This is the interview that started the Maduro/Sonic Weapon story. I have no idea if it is true but hope that it is and the same type of operation could be used against the head of the viper in Iran. It sounds kind of sensationalized but hopefully it isn’t.
https://x.com/nettermike/status/2009843044028428714?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E2009843044028428714%7Ctwgr%5E5cbb0845f15586864a5ed573487bf9ffa1d0700e%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.twz.com%2Fnews-features%2Fdid-a-mysterious-sonic-weapon-really-aid-delta-force-in-capturing-maduro
Comment #37 January 14th, 2026 at 1:21 am
Scott #27: The reason nativism is on the rise is because people are looking for for a coherent idea of what it means to be an American (and not for theoretical reasons, but because of observed practical problems). Some people claim it’s about believing in a certain set of ideals, but we can’t agree on what they are, and even if we could, we can’t strip anyone’s citizenship for not believing in them, because one of the core principles of the US is the First Amendment, which allows us to criticize said ideals. If we can’t agree on or enforce those ideals, there’s no way to restrict immigration based on whether or not people believe in them, so we at the very least have to limit the rate if we want to preserve what makes the US special. But it seems like a lot of people don’t even agree on this? The current situation is extremely unstable.
Scott #28: I don’t think it’s an issue of getting “appropriately depressed and terrified about” domestic issues. The problem is basically that Iran is asking the US for help doing their homework (“how should we govern ourselves?”) but a lot of people feel that we ourselves do not know how to solve the problem either.
Comment #38 January 14th, 2026 at 7:53 am
gentzen #24
I fully agree with you that in situations such as this it requires more than just eliminating the uppermost leadership. In my view, at a minimum, it also requires ruthlessly eliminating those elements of society that pose significant risk of ongoing armed opposition to the new political structures. If you are unwilling to do that then the risk of failure increases significantly. In this case that would apply to the Revolutionary Guards and various armed militias. Their intent at a minimum will be to sow chaos while maintaining allegiance to the old order and jihad in Iran is still jihad. The turmoil then will also provide fertile ground for corruption albeit old government structures or new.
If faced with a certain unimaginably bleak future with the status quo then a rational decision (as Caesar noted) would be-Let the dice fly high. In this case though probability of good results for the citizenry as a whole can be improved by ruthlessly eliminating those opposed to the change and will bear arms to support their position.
Comment #39 January 14th, 2026 at 8:09 am
Ryan Landay #37, the best thing you can say about current situation in US is that the last election – by all accounts – was an example of legitimate democracy in action. Our citizens – as a collective – have chosen this federal government. We did this to ourselves.
The irony is that we’ve elected a federal government that is in no way committed to continuing that legitimate democracy and indeed is doing everything in its power to end it.
Comment #40 January 14th, 2026 at 8:59 am
Scott #33
“ But Israel now has frickin’ lasers that can shoot down drones‘“
Shooting down cheap drones with expensive ammunition was a dream come true for global ammunition suppliers and now Rafael spoils the party with this. Short ammunition suppliers!
I can’t wait until more information becomes available, the adaptive optics must have similarities to dynamic mirror control at deep space observatories. It looks like burn-through takes about a second so the energy delivered on target must have increased.
Comment #41 January 14th, 2026 at 9:37 am
This protest movement is about liberation.
A big part of it is Iranian women (and men) wanting sexual liberation and freedom from the morality police.
But you’ve said you oppose the sexual revolution. You think the sexual revolution was a mistake, arranged marriages are a more sensible way of organizing things, etc.
So, what gives?
Comment #42 January 14th, 2026 at 10:25 am
The Israeli press is reporting that Israel and Arab nations have requested that the US not proceed with military action in Iran at this time.
Comment #43 January 14th, 2026 at 3:46 pm
Scott #27 (sorry but one more post)
“ I found the following passage extremely moving, coming as it does from an admitted former white nationalist, Richard Hanania:”
Initially I thought why would being an ex Nazi (under pseudonym) make him a sympathetic and cogent commentator on this topic now. Is it like an ex alcoholic stumping the evils of the devil’s own elixir?
I bear no ill will to Hispanics and having lived in Houston had a lot of contact with undocumented workers and all pleasant interactions. But you are either a country of laws or not. Many that write these opinions would fare very poorly without law enforcement.
I read some of his other material and he says selective enforcement should apply to immigration just as it does for speeding. This is a specious analogy. I understand that when I speed I have increased risk with law enforcement and I have been cited for speeding. I also understand that arguing with law enforcement amplifies my risk considerably. The place to determine innocence or guilt is in court not in an interaction with an LEO. Being obstructive with law enforcement can lead to no good outcomes.
I also read in his other writings that he believes the originator of this policy has a deep antipathy for Hispanics. I have no idea either way about this claim but I strongly disagree that enforcement of immigration law can only be due to racism.
He does provide economic data that this policy has a net negative impact on the US economy. That could provide a portion of the basis for updated Immigration laws.
I too believe immigration enforcement should be reasonable and that demonstrations opposing the current law are fine but purposefully interfering with law enforcement is a fools errand that can accomplish nothing good but a lot bad. The hard left must be rejoicing, it appears a new group of possible cannon fodder has arisen that believes the place to find justice is in the streets battling law enforcement officers. If a problem with the federal law-Congress. If a question of innocence or guilt-the courts. If you don’t like the results and prefer anarchy or overthrow of the government-God (because if he exists you will probably soon be meeting him one way or the other).
Comment #44 January 14th, 2026 at 4:37 pm
In this days of ubiquitous AI powered mass surveillance through cctv, drones, facial recognition, social media tracking… getting away with common crime is now almost impossible.
But it’s also the case that the odds of a true revolution/uprising to succeed are now near zero, anywhere on the planet (unless it’s in some civil war ravaged wasteland).
Comment #45 January 14th, 2026 at 5:12 pm
Ethan #41:
A big part of it is Iranian women (and men) wanting sexual liberation and freedom from the morality police.
But you’ve said you oppose the sexual revolution. You think the sexual revolution was a mistake, arranged marriages are a more sensible way of organizing things, etc.
So, what gives?
Since others might be interested, let me answer that as though you were an honest asker, rather than the piece-of-shit troll who you are.
In quantum computing, I get attacked by those who say QC is impossible, and also by those who say that it would revolutionize machine learning and optimization and everything else. And often, somehow, those are the very same people.
In politics, I get attacked by those who want a communist egalitarian paradise, and also by those who want the rule of an authoritarian strongman. And again, counterintuitively, those people often turn out to be the same.
And when it comes to sex and dating? Once more, the people who think a STEM nerd asking a woman out is gross, creepy sexual assault, are often the very same people who are 100% fine with the most explicit patriarchy and the cruelest repression of women as long as it’s in Iran or Afghanistan or some other Islamic country. So then either way they attack me.
My position is that of a pro-sanity radical. I am for all things that are obviously good, and against all things that are obviously bad.
As one example, I am (vehemently and obviously) against forced marriage, which was indeed the system that prevailed for most of human history. I am for the new ways of liberalism and the Enlightenment. I am against overcorrecting to the point that men and even adolescent boys are demonized for heterosexual urges that they were born with and didn’t choose—which was the atmosphere that I encountered growing up, and which very nearly destroyed my life.
In other words, I believe that
(1) men must have the right (and the social sanction) to ask, and also that
(2) women must have the right (and the social sanction) to say no.
As obvious as both sides of this feel to me, I suppose it shouldn’t be surprising that there are people on the Internet who vocally reject either (1) and (2) and condemn me for it—or who say that if I affirm one, it can only be because I reject the other.
The part that continues to shock me is that the very same people who most vocally deny (1) in the context of the US and other Western countries, are often the ones who effectively deny (2) for the women of the Islamic world.
Comment #46 January 15th, 2026 at 3:58 am
Scott #45:
> In other words, I believe that
(1) men must have the right (and the social sanction) to ask, and also that
(2) women must have the right (and the social sanction) to say no.
Gale and Shapley … were probably NOT planning to solve economic problems when devising their propose-and-reject algorithm?! 😀
Comment #47 January 15th, 2026 at 12:25 pm
The problem with Trump is that people are telling him the regime can cause significant damage to the Gulf if it feels it is going down and on the other side it is not clear who can stabilize the country after the attack, without troops on the ground.
So he doesn’t have many good options to take a military action against the regime.
Killing the leader is risky, it is not clear how the hardliners would react to that. It might be muted like the killing of their general in Iraq and attack on their nuclear facilities, but it is possible that without him the hardliners will take over and go nuts. I don’t think it is very likely but that is the kind of the calculations that are going on in Washington I think.
And Turks and Arabs are looking hard against the attack.
That said, he can at least take out a bunch of regime forces that are used by the government to kill protesters as symbolic show of support.
Comment #48 January 15th, 2026 at 3:01 pm
When the media narrative overwhelmingly calls for regime change then I am cautious! Paraphrasing what BillG asks, `is it any of our business?’ My friends (turks and persians) miss the discotechs, but the majority is still inclined to Islam. In other words, if there was a straight-up election now I bet the prediction markets would go toward the establishment. The reports I believe suggest there were three waves; the first was in Tehran by peaceful business owners who couldn’t get products, followed by rioters in Tehran (Pompeo’s New Year wish), and a third wave across most of the country by those in favor of the regime protesting the violence. Max Blumenthal, for example, generally is trustworthy in this regard. I also thought the interviews with Prof. Seyed Mohammad Marandi rang true.
Comment #49 January 15th, 2026 at 11:20 pm
What happens when two hype machines collaborate ?
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/mH7fL5OyaWA
Comment #50 January 15th, 2026 at 11:59 pm
Doug Mounce #48: The fact that you were fooled by Marandi’s propaganda nonsense is the answer to your paradox of why a majority in Iran may go toward the establishment. This is the 101 of how authoritarianism works. Authoritarianism is not going to last A DAY without somehow finding a way to fool the people and keep them detached from reality (why do you think the entire communication infrastructure in Iran, including all access to reliable news sources, is now shut down by the regime?).
Comment #51 January 16th, 2026 at 12:37 am
I share your sentiment entirely. I hope this ends with the brave Iranians finally attaining their freedom. In my mind this is not the same as Venezuela — where the population enjoyed orders of magnitude more freedom than Iranians ever dreamed of for decades. I’ve seen too many people underestimate how sinister this brand of islamic theocracy is, and how much suffering and stagnation it brings about, especially for women. I would welcome Evil A toppling Evil B, but I have no illusions as to the intentiosn and motivations of Evil A, nor of the enthusiasts who gleefully cheer it on.
Comment #52 January 16th, 2026 at 8:39 am
H #51
I assume Evil A is shorthand for USA. If so then what poppycock. The anti US narrative in Iraq was-It’s for the oil. Actually at the conclusion of the war the international oil companies strongly involved in Iraq were from Russia, China, and France (who didn’t participate in the war). Exxon had one project that they exited and sined over to PetroChina. Admittedly George Bush was an idiot but he was not a colonialist seeking to steal Iraq’s oil reserves.
There has recently been a change and Iraq is seeking to attract US oil companies and I need to find out in detail what has changed.
Fast forward to now. Trump recently had a meeting with major US oil companies and said he was disappointed that there was not interest in Venezuelan project investment (my paraphrase of his reaction). Venezuelan oil is poor quality to produce with low mobility in the sub surface aand so interest is low.
Chevron does have expertise to recover this type of oil because historically they did recover this in California through thermal methods. On top of the technical risks you have remaining relatively high political risk in Venezuela. Donald Trump is an idiot (actually as a rule US politicians are all idiots about this type of thing (anything technical and most things outside the US)) that may have some colonial ambitions that arise from his ignorance. He will fail any type of oil colonialism because he has no understanding of the issues involved.
Exxon as an example has been successful (in large part) by making careful investment decisions that include careful consideration of the technical risk, the political risk over the typically multi decade project life, and general commercial risk over the project life. There aren’t any projects in Venezuela that interest them. Very bad news for any US oil company to invest say $10 billion in a project and then have to write it off in five or ten years. US oil companies have migrated to deep water offshore projects that require large upfront investment and have enormous highly specialized engineering requirements. These are projects that cannot be done without their expertise and still the host countries receive a substantial portion of the revenues (not typically responsible for any of the upfront costs).
Presidents, as nearly all US citizens, have mythical beliefs about oil projects in the third world. US oil companies on the other hand deal on a daily basis with host countries and their citizens after investing enormous amounts of real dollars. The myth and the reality are considerably different.
The implications of this for Iran are that major private investment will not be made until long term stability is more assured and terms onerous to the host government will not be imposed because that heightens risk for predatory government action over the medium and long term.
The fact is that the regime in Iraq changed and the US did not act as a colonial power misappropriating hydrocarbons that rightfully belong to the citizens of Iraq.
The fact is that Maduro is gone and the US will not be an evil colonialist misappropriating oil that rightfully belongs to the Citizens of Venezuela.
The fact is that if there is a regime change in Iran the US will not be an evil colonialist misappropriating hydrocarbons that rightfully belong to the citizens of Iran.
These beliefs are a standard part of the US myth but in no way realistic. Reality is much more win-win than the myths that are invariably win-lose.
Comment #53 January 16th, 2026 at 10:54 am
OhMyGoodness, #52
“The fact is that Maduro is gone and the US will not be an evil colonialist misappropriating oil that rightfully belongs to the Citizens of Venezuela.”
Well, it won’t be for a lack of trying on part of the current leader of the U.S. Government. The attempt alone shows evil intention. Combining that with the power of the U.S. President is enough to ascribe the label.
Comment #54 January 16th, 2026 at 12:58 pm
I have dropped a couple references to Julius Caesar recently and so yes currently reading a very good biography of his life. 🙂 To me it appears they did a much better job of rounding their politicians before they assumed high office. Caesar went through the progression. In addition to his military experience he had experience with maintaining the Appian Way and overseeing portions of Romes’s infrastructure before he was Consul. I won’t use the word genius and so he was a superb military tactician, a superb lawyer, a superb military leader, superb orator, and a superb engineer at a relatively early age.
Contrast this with a typical progression for US politicians. BA, J.D., prosecutor for some high profile case, and then Congress and then… . Superb not a requirement at any step. Yikes!
I have to share one story. Cato was his younger archenemy and a Patrician. Caesar was presenting a complete tax overhaul to the Senate. It was done impeccably and there really was no way to fault his proposal. There also was a plot at that time to overthrow the Senate. Cato couldn’t fault his work and so started accusing Caesar of plotting with the conspirators.
Someone brought a note to Caesar which he opened and read. Cato pounced and said-See he just received a note from the conspirators and dared Caesar to read it aloud to the Senate. Caesar calmly handed the note to Cato who read and reddened. It was a love note from Cato’s stepsister with whom Caesar was having an affair. Caeser’s tax reform then passed. Can you imagine the coincidence?
Comment #55 January 16th, 2026 at 3:09 pm
I used to be frustrated with you for being somewhat lukewarm on the AI issue – now that you’ve come around on that I’m just fully cheering you on on virtually every issue. It doesn’t make for good opportunities to comment, but it might be as good a time as any to express that.
Comment #56 January 16th, 2026 at 3:39 pm
I hope you write something about Scott Adams, maybe a bit shorter than the 10^120 words piece by Scott Alexander.
Comment #57 January 16th, 2026 at 3:55 pm
Beside “is the regime evil” and “is it our business”, the question is maybe “will it work?”. What are our aims and how do the proposed actions get us there?
The Belgians honor American liberation to this day. I sure hope we have a plan for Iran that is, if not quite Belgian-standard, at least a lot better than the previous Afghanistan one.
At the moment I think the request from both Israel and many arab states not to go in guns blazing is the right one – at least for now. My heuristic is that when Israel says don’t bomb Iran, you listen.
Comment #58 January 16th, 2026 at 7:31 pm
What’s the paradox Mahdi? Are you saying that a majority of Iranians are Moslem who are fooled into following the current regime? My friends used to fly to Germany, buy their Mercedes, and then drive them back to Tehran to sell. They miss those days. Yousef’s wife hates the current regime, loves Trump, and Yousef wants me to go back and visit – no more worries about violence than I have with antifa here in the northwest. Like always, the sanctions aimed at urging foreign governments to “behave” hurt the wrong people. In any case, not a government under-which I’d want to live. The comedy of Forugh Farrokhza, or filmmakers like Alireza Khatami and Ali Asgari, convey why it wouldn’t work for me. Still, I thinks it’s important to remember that “western” civilization is an Hebraic-Christian-Islamic inheritance.
Comment #59 January 16th, 2026 at 7:43 pm
David Says: Comment #57 asks “will it work?” – good question – what is “our” interest?
Comment #60 January 16th, 2026 at 9:19 pm
Doug Mounce #48:
“My friends (turks and persians) miss the discotechs, but the majority is still inclined to Islam.”
https://gamaan.org/2020/08/25/iranians-attitudes-toward-religion-a-2020-survey-report/
I suggest you read the survey summary (link above) from “Iranians’ Attitudes Toward Religion: A 2020 Survey Report” conducted by the Group for Analyzing and Measuring Attitudes in Iran (GAMAAN). It will probably not be too surprising to most readers here, but the results do not quite align with what the Islamic Regime (or you?) suggest.
“In other words, if there was a straight-up election now I bet the prediction markets would go toward the establishment.”
https://gamaan.org/2025/08/20/analytical-report-on-iranians-political-preferences-in-2024/
In a similar vein, readers might like to read the Summary of key findings from the above report, “Iranians Political Preferences in 2024”. Again, probably not too surprising to most readers here, but the results do not quite align with what the Islamic Regime (or you?) suggest.
“Max Blumenthal, for example, generally is trustworthy in this regard. I also thought the interviews with Prof. Seyed Mohammad Marandi rang true.”
Are you trolling here? Can you provide examples of clips where you find Max Blumenthal or Mohammad Marandi “trustworthy”?
Comment #61 January 16th, 2026 at 10:31 pm
Thanks for the reference Ty. Like I said, I wouldn’t want to live under the Iranian regime any more than in Turkey, Saudi Arabia, et al. I withdraw my prediction on what “most” Iranians want. I wasn’t surprised that GAMAAN reports that opposition to the Islamic Republic is higher among the youth, urban residents, and the highly educated. The results seem reasonable, although other preferences suggest a difference with the US style of governance (2020 “results show that 78% of Iranians believe in God”). There are criticisms of GAMAAN’s methodology and ideological interest. I want to know more about their random VPN-sampling.
“When asked about their preferred regime type, 34% chose a “secular republic”, 22% the “Islamic republic”, 19% a “constitutional monarchy”, and 3% an “absolute monarchy”. Also, over 21% declared that they are “not sufficiently informed to answer this question”.
I don’t think Max Blumenthal has any ideological interest although he tends to be against oligarchy.
https://thegrayzone.com/2026/01/12/western-media-riots-iran-govt-regime-change/
Seyed Mohammad Marandi, on the other hand, is an American-Iranian academic, political analyst and described by his website as a “prominent Iranian defender of the Islamic revolution”. Maybe we can both agree that we are against both the violent riots and the police oppression?
Comment #62 January 17th, 2026 at 2:54 am
Adam Treat #53
My view is that he believes he believes he is arranging a win-win for Venezuela and the US but doesn’t have the knowledge to do so in this manner. He has American myths to act on but no experience adequate for the job. True motivations can only ever be a topic of debate but actions have an impact on shared objective world that can be judged as positive or negative acceptable or unacceptable.
If he gave a serving of free ice cream to all elementary students half the country would claim his motivation was trying to poison students with a high-fat/high-sugar vector. Ultimately there would be no objective way to determine the truth or falsity of the belief. We could agree that regardless of his motivation the blood sugar levels of the students would have been lower with a free serving of carrots.
I guess I subscribe to Hanlon’s razor more than most.
Comment #63 January 17th, 2026 at 6:37 am
Just to give some rough estimate of what it takes to seriously weaken the resolve of an Islamist regime from the outside, using bombs and bullets: if you scale the Gaza numbers (used internally by the IDF) and scale them up to the size of Iran, you get 2.5 million deaths.
Comment #64 January 17th, 2026 at 10:22 am
Ty-ty #63: The two situations are wildly different. In Iran, but not Gaza, you have a majority of people (and even a majority of elites) who despise the regime and who want something closer to secular liberal democracy. That’s the reason to expect that simply decapitating the regime would be enough.
Comment #65 January 17th, 2026 at 2:39 pm
Doug Mounce #61:
In the link you provided, is it the prominent embedded tweet which references “The Israel-controlled Trump administration” that you find “trustworthy”?
Comment #66 January 17th, 2026 at 2:42 pm
Scott #64
I’d like also to think that a huge majority despises the regime but it’s not that clear they all are ready to die or burn down the country to get rid of the regime. The fact that the uprising appeared to have died down shows that there’s a huge part that also supports the regime, and there were massive pro-regime demonstrations of support as well.
Anyway I don’t think there are objective polls about this (obviously).
The reality is probably that the two extreme sides – one very anti-regime (more youth) and the other very pro-regime, are by definition very dedicated and radical, but the majority in the middle (older generations with more to lose) is probably okay with peaceful demonstrations, but just wants to survive and retracts once the violence gets out of control (the same happened in Hong-Kong with the umbrella revolution).
Comment #67 January 17th, 2026 at 3:20 pm
Scott #64
“That’s the reason to expect that simply decapitating the regime would be enough.”
One more thing is that the regime already went through a transition at the top, when Khomeini died in 1989. So the regime is somewhat resilient when it comes to “its head”, probably more so than something like MAGA, or the Kims in NK, which are cults of personalities rather than based on religious/philosophical ideologies.
Comment #68 January 17th, 2026 at 8:38 pm
Doug #61: Dude, Mohammad Marandi is an American-Iranian only because he happens to be born in the US. He has lived in Iran since the Islamic Republic was established. His father is the personal physician of Khamenei himself. To give you an example of his “political analysis”, he linked the stabbing of Salman Rushdie to an attempt by the US government to undermine Iran’s nuclear deal!! “I will not shed tears for someone who spread hatred against Islam and Muslims for years,” he said. “But is it a coincidence that just when we are on the verge of revitalising the nuclear agreement, America makes claims about an attempted assassination of Bolton and then this happens?” You still think this guy’s an “academic” or do you now think that he’s a speaker for the regime’s propaganda?
Comment #69 January 17th, 2026 at 9:01 pm
David #57:
“is the regime evil”: is that even a question?
“is it our business”: if Israel and the Middle East in general are our business, then so is this.
“will it work?”: I don’t know, would the killing of a Hamas leader (Ismail Haniyeh), his aide and nobody else work?
“when Israel says don’t bomb Iran” Has Israel said that? Reference? I wouldn’t equate Israel and Netanyahu. If Natanyahu is mostly silent, there could be many reasons, including him wanting to stay away from a two-state solution (current regime in Iran helps make the case for that) or him being restrained by Trump (not the other way around). Netanyahu is corrupt and wants Hamas around and Iran’s regime helps with that (as evidence, watch a John Oliver episode in which he explains how Netanyahu effectively and knowingly funded Hamas).
The main reason Trump backed off seems to be the Arab nations lobbying against. Not surprising, considering they want to have control of the region and wouldn’t want a strong democratic Iran around (along with other reasons, including again the two-state solution that they may not be a huge fan of but a democratic Iran might be).
Comment #70 January 17th, 2026 at 9:11 pm
Scott #64: I agree on “simply decapitating the regime would be enough” and your point is why a comparison with Afghanistan that is done by even experienced journalists is complete nonsense. But I’m not too sure about “a majority of people who despise the regime and who want something closer to secular liberal democracy” (even if “despise the regime” part is true, the rest is less clear). It’s very hard to get a sense of what the majority thinks, especially in Iran. Considering those around us and the loudest as an indication of the majority could be why Ahmadinejad won, Trump won in 2016, etc. My sense is that the majority of people struggle enough not to have the peace of mind of even thinking about such things; that’s kind of the whole idea of authoritarianism.
Comment #71 January 17th, 2026 at 9:17 pm
Doug Mounce #59: Don’t forget that Trump couldn’t care less about “what is our interest.” He cares only about himself, and ending the Islamic Republic could very well earn him a Nobel for real this time. Backing off could only lead to him being bitten by the snake again down the line, so for his own interests, the choice is clear.
Comment #72 January 17th, 2026 at 9:53 pm
Ty-ty #63: “scale them up to the size of Iran” What does this even mean? One life in Gaza equals 35 Iranian lives or what? Netanyahu has done the same to “scale up” 10/7 to the US population and conclude that 9/11 was nothing compared to that.
Comment #73 January 18th, 2026 at 5:24 am
Ty-ty #67
I agree in many respects with you. In my model the groups actually killing protestors are among the most violent ideologically driven people on the planet. Their allegiance is not ultimately to the Iranian leadership but to the metaphysical allegiance they share with the Iranian leadership. I don’t believe they are just hired guns.
Comment #74 January 18th, 2026 at 11:08 am
Repeatedly the Iranian regime has killed over 10,000 of its own citizens protesting against the government unarmed in a matter of 3 days.
For comparison, IDF has killed 70,000 over two years while fighting an armed terrorist group during a war started by Hamas attack on Israeli civilians.
Any activist on the US who cries for intervention in Gaza but ignores this massacre of civilians by Iranian regime has zero moral credibility.
Comment #75 January 18th, 2026 at 8:24 pm
Late to the party; I could be wrong, but there’s a knob in the system that seems underweighted. I think there’s a structural asymmetry between Iran and Venezuela that changes the calculus: local counterbalance.
Iran sits in a crowded, contested security neighborhood (Saudi Arabia, Israel, Turkey, etc.). That means two things at once: (1) it’s easier for conflict to spiral because there are many capable actors, but also (2) there are powerful regional players with their own incentives to constrain outcomes. In that environment, Iran’s security apparatus has been “sharpened” over decades of proxy competition, and the whole ecosystem adapts in ways outsiders often underestimate.
Venezuela’s neighborhood is not analogous. Colombia and Guyana matter, and Brazil is the regional heavyweight, but it’s often played mediator rather than a hard counterweight; meanwhile the Americas are structured such that the US is often the overwhelmingly dominant outside power, and recognized regional counterweights are weaker. So even if one grants a superficial similarity (“authoritarian regime / sanctions / opposition”), the second and third-order effects don’t port cleanly. In complex systems, small differences in constraints and feedback loops produce big downstream differences.
Speaking personally, I’m allergic to any framing that treats war or coercive action as a clean lever. The costs are real, and the “easy” options are often the ones with the ugliest nonlinearities. So if we’re talking about what’s robust under uncertainty, I’m more convinced by steps that expand locals’ ability to coordinate and communicate safely (connectivity, secure comms, academic/refugee support) than by actions that substitute our agency for theirs. Still, the “if not now, when?” question is real; I just worry this framing can push us from being a beacon that supports local agency to trying to arbitrate outcomes ourselves. One counterargument I take seriously is the credibility/deterrence point; waiting can be its own form of escalation.
Anyway, my main point is just that “Iran ≈ Venezuela” is a category error unless we bake regional counterbalances into the comparison.
Comment #76 January 19th, 2026 at 7:17 am
Ty-ty #67
To clarify, my first choice would be decapitation and ruthless elimination of the armed groups killing innocents. My second choice would be simply decapitation. The groups that are killing people wholesale now will kill people wholesale in the chaos that follows so little difference but at least the Iranian people will have a chance to purge their country governance by extreme Islamists.
If you haven’t done so you should look at the writings of Sayyid Qutb who is considered instrumental to the foundation of modern Islamism. He spent a couple years in the US and six months of that in Greeley CO. He found nearly everything about the US abhorrent especially the mixing of sexes and vacuous materialism with no spiritual life that he could recognize. He was executed by the Egyptian government after spending years in prison. His brother later went over his writings weekly with Zawahiri and bid Laden in Riyadh. A short direct route from a co-ed dance in 1949 Greeley CO to the WTC disaster.
Comment #77 January 20th, 2026 at 7:14 am
Ty Ty #67
I think a good analogy is that Qutb saw Greeley (and more generally the US) as a Potemkin Village and Americans as Potemkin Villagers. On the surface looks good but the things underneath he considered important were absent. Americans were sinfully seduced by trivial materialism and pretty girls.
Comment #78 January 21st, 2026 at 1:20 pm
Hezbollah and Iraqi Islamists now patrolling the streets of Tehran in Toyota pickup trucks and armed with 50 caliber machine guns. This caliber machine gun in a crowded urban environment is a statement that you couldn’t care less who gets killed. At muzzle it has around 13,000 ft-lbs and at 800 yards still 6,000 ft-lbs. It will penetrate concrete walls and vehicles without issue. Horrible horrible weapon to unleash on the citizens of your capital city. They are under the command of the Revolutionary Guard.
Comment #79 January 21st, 2026 at 4:51 pm
Hello Professor Aaronson, thanks for writing about Iran and the protests. As I’m writing this, and you may have heard, the protests in Iran have almost decayed due to brutal oppression by the regime on Jan 8 and 9. You mentioned Professor Sharifi in your email, and as I’m aware, he’s fled the country and is seeking a position in Europe and Canada since he can’t obviously work in Iran anymore. Also, today I finally was able to get in touch with my friends on a national social media called Bale. Most of them have missed the deadlines of so many applications because of the shutdown and were asking me to email different institutes and ask for deadline extensions. I can’t believe we got in such a terrible situation :(((, but hopefully Iran would be free soon. Thank you!
Comment #80 January 24th, 2026 at 12:23 pm
What’s happening in Iran is horrible. But what about Minneapolis and USA ? Naturalized non-white citizens and their US born children are being dragged out of cars, beaten and put in jail until the courts release them back. Collectively, nearly 30% of US citizens belong to that demographic.
Comment #81 January 24th, 2026 at 2:07 pm
Truth Blade #80: What’s happening in Minnesota is of course beyond horrible — confirming fears that were dismissed as hyperbolic, by those of us who tried to prevent Trump from ever assuming power and then from returning to power. Ayatollah Khamenei’s thugs have summarily executed 40,000 people in the streets. President Trump’s thugs have so far executed two people in the street, but I’m sure would execute 40,000 or more if they thought they could get away with it. May our democratic tradition weather this assault. May freedom and Enlightenment prevail in both countries, and may the empowered thugs of ICE and the IRGC face justice for their crimes.
Comment #82 January 28th, 2026 at 2:54 pm
The narrative that I see is that Netanyahu is satisfied now that the combined US and Israeli forces on station now are sufficient to address a 700 missile attack from Iran and so he supports proceeding against Iran.
I still hope they can eliminate the Revolutionary Guard and the foreign Islamist militias in addition to the top of the hierarchy.
Iran did test a new high speed maneuverable missile in early January designed to foil modern air defense systems but I am sure Netanyahu included this fully in his assessment.
May good fortune please shine on this operation.
Comment #83 February 1st, 2026 at 2:21 pm
Scott #81: “Ayatollah Khamenei’s thugs have summarily executed 40,000 people in the streets.”
Even worse than whether they executed 30,000 or 50,000 is that they intentionally obscured how many where actually killed. And also that they used foreign military mercenaries that had less trouble to kill Iranians, and which could also be deployed to kill Iranian soldiers who refused to kill Iranians. And of course they also intentionally obscured who killed the Iranian soldiers, blaming their deaths entirely on the protestors. I don’t know how many Iranian soldiers were killed by protestors, but I know that obscuring things is the opposite of being “solution oriented” or taking responsibility. Escalating violence and lying are cheap, especially compared to trying to find sustainable solutions for urgent short, mid, and long term problems.
Comment #84 February 2nd, 2026 at 9:25 pm
The worst from a Western point of view is the complicity – again: Khomeini prepared the 1979 putsch in French asylum, after the US coup in 1953 – in favor of the regime (most notable pro-Mullah-person in Germany: President Steinmeier), and thus against the Iranian people.
The Socialist part of the West has no interest whatsoever in the survival of our culture/civilization, and Islam is a welcome Brother-in-arms for this (the height of absurdity probably is LGBTs/Queers-for-Palestine …), see Montero, Mélenchon.
May Trump break “International law” again! Anyway, it has always been the law of the jungle. Sometimes the Jungle (usually the US) was aligned with the noble (?) intentions of IntLaw, more often not. And, who cares (besides Ms Baerflop at UN). However, the real danger/problem/enemy seems to be the RevGuards IRGC, 125K men, not so much “the 10 old mullahs on top”. Then again, after eliminating IRGC (how?), either US troops on the soil, or any of the many neighbors might (will) invade the power vacuum. This looks more AFG than VEN. So, should he [Trump, break]? ???
TyTy#31: More than 51% (some 70) is just water anyway.
Anon#47: “And Turks and Arabs are looking hard against the attack.”
Totally doubt that: All three, Riyadh, Constantinople, and Tehran want supremacy in matters islamic. What could be better for those two than the 3rd eliminated from the outside.