The duty of stating the obvious
1. Trump’s proposal for the US to “take over” Gaza and expel its inhabitants is, like nearly everything else Trump has said and done over the past two weeks and indeed the past decade, completely batshit insane.
2. As with countless other Trump proposals, I don’t see that it will actually happen — both because most Gazans will refuse to leave, and because Arab countries will refuse to take them.
3. I wonder whether all the anti-Israel activists in the US who withheld their vote (or even switched to Trump) to punish Biden and Harris for their support of Israel, are now happy with what they’ve gotten.
4. The solution has always been for some government to develop Gaza for the benefit of its inhabitants, rather than as a terror-base for attacking Israel. Hamas and UNRWA have shown that they’ll never do that. But the postwar administration of Germany and Japan demonstrates what’s possible in one generation if the will exists.
5. I wish the anti-Israel people would join me in demanding that. They ought to reflect that, if their only counteroffer is “Israel gets eradicated and its Jews return to the countries that murdered or expelled their families,” then they’re demanding something even more fantastical than Trump’s proposal.
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Comment #1 February 5th, 2025 at 9:03 am
Scott, you have a talent for writing in commonsensical. Each time insane shit happens in this world on a scale that makes it international news, I visit this blog in hope of reassuring myself that sane, intelligent public speakers do, in fact, still exist.
Comment #2 February 5th, 2025 at 9:15 am
dear mr. aaronson,
i just want to thank you from the bottom of my heart for being public and outspoken about the wrongs in this world. we need more scientists like you. i wish you and your family all the best.
greetings from vienna,
chris
looong time reader
Comment #3 February 5th, 2025 at 9:51 am
The second coming of Trump looks to be 1000x worse than the first.
The first time around wasn’t so bad because Trump was like a clown in a candystore, bumbling around and randomly breaking things. Fortunately most of his minions were dummys, and democracy survived.
This time around a posse of evil but smart people are on board, primarily seeking to steal on an unprecedented scale, and also to end democracy and ruin whatever they can for the heck of it.
And where is the opposition, you ask?
Comment #4 February 5th, 2025 at 10:11 am
“Israel gets eradicated and its Jews return to the countries that murdered or expelled their families,”
To state the obvious, the people that’s actually getting eradicated right now, not as some hypothetical, are the Palestinians.
Comment #5 February 5th, 2025 at 10:15 am
An excellent take on how bad things are getting can be found in the daily “Hartmann Report”.
The Report might be slightly over the top, but Hartmann is high energy, the rare example of a leftist who is not a dummy or a stoner, and has an insightful take on things. E.g., today’s headline: “The Billionaire Coup is Almost Complete — and No One Stopped It — Can We Return to Democracy?” Check it out.
Comment #6 February 5th, 2025 at 10:21 am
Raoul Ohio
There’s no opposition possible from the Democrats or the historical Republicans at this point… Maga is already saying that they won’t give a shit about court orders, so it’s GAME OVER already.
You think Musk is just gonna do his clean up after seizing control of all the agencies infrastructures and then hand it back to congress?!
At this point the only thing that would stop this is if the US military says “that’s enough” and steps in, basically a coup, to restore things the way they’re supposed to be.
And clearly that would lead to some kind of civil war… and it won’t happen either, because Trump is making sure the military is in his pocket too.
PS: and Steve Bannon has hinted recently that “you haven’t seen anything yet!”, he said that all the firings are just the beginning… what’s coming soon are revenge lawsuits (the only kind that will still matter) and throwing those people in jail.
Comment #7 February 5th, 2025 at 10:40 am
fred #4: To state the obvious, the Palestinian population has gone up, not down, over the past year and a half, in what’s been called the least effective genocide in history. And “expel all the Jews” is a mainstream position of anti-Zionist groups, whereas “expel all the Palestinians” has never been a mainstream position of pro-Zionist groups—which is why Trump shocked the world. He’s obviously doing his usual madman thing, staking out the most lunatic position in order to walk it back later in exchange for concessions. (As shouldn’t need to be said: even if it works in this or that instance, it’s an insane risk for the president of the US constantly to play chicken against the world in this way.)
Comment #8 February 5th, 2025 at 10:41 am
And, for all the online celebrities/high profile intellectuals that have been vocally anti-Trump and anti-Musk, if lawsuits aren’t coming their way, what’s coming for sure are IRS audits…
Comment #9 February 5th, 2025 at 10:46 am
I believe we have to differ on this, my friend. Trump’s proposal isn’t “insane” and has a reasonable chance of partially coming to fruition. (I also think you may be misrepresenting his proposal, at least in the first sentence. It’s not about “forced expulsion” but allowing Gazans the opportunity to leave if they wish.) There is clear evidence suggesting that many Gazans would be willing to leave, especially considering they identify as “refugees.” It would be inconsistent to argue against their departure on purely principled grounds.
I also think Trump could successfully persuade Egypt and Jordan to accept a significant number of Gazans. Jordan, in particular, is already a de facto Palestinian state, with a Palestinian majority governed by the Hashemite minority. Once Gaza is rebuilt, returning could be an option, though I suspect most would choose not to.
The ball is now in the other side’s court to respond: if Trump’s proposal isn’t good enough, then what alternative do they propose? Another war in 5 to 10 years? Or the eradication of Israel? (These are the only alternatives on the table now.)
Comment #10 February 5th, 2025 at 10:55 am
“To state the obvious, the Palestinian population has gone up, not down, over the past year and a half, in what’s been called the least effective genocide in history.”
Aaah, that’s right, I remember now… when the pounding of Gaza started, and the death count was steadily climbing in the thousands, you were referring to it not having any statistical impact, as though the number of deaths is only significant if it makes a dent on population growth.
And
1) Sure, the same argument can be said about the “Pogrom” of Oct 7th. And noone knows for sure how many deaths happened from all the side effects of the assault on Gaza, like starvation and disease.
2) I haven’t said anything about “genocide”, you actually brought it up in your reply. I wrote “eradication” (you used that word), which covers Ethnic Cleansing, i.e. “the systematic forced removal of ethnic, racial, or religious groups from a given area, with the intent of making the society ethnically homogeneous.”
Comment #11 February 5th, 2025 at 11:06 am
> But the postwar administration of Germany and Japan demonstrates what’s possible in one generation if the will exists.
Germany and Japan were reasonably sane civilizations before briefly going crazy. You’d be hard-pressed to argue a sane Palestinian civilization ever existed, and even if you believe that, presumably you won’t deny that it’s been insane for much longer than either Germany or Japan. Attempts to make Iraq and Afghanistan into functional states certainly didn’t succeed nearly as well as Germany and Japan.
> He’s obviously doing his usual madman thing, staking out the most lunatic position in order to walk it back later in exchange for concessions
If that’s what he’s doing, it’s working amazingly well so far. Only Trump could make Rashida Tlaib make a favorable reference to the two-state solution.
(https://x.com/RashidaTlaib/status/1886974021041877232)
Comment #12 February 5th, 2025 at 11:08 am
Scott
” whereas “expel all the Palestinians” has never been a mainstream position of pro-Zionist groups—which is why Trump shocked the world.”
Oh, and Bibi’s far right gang doesn’t count as a pro-Zionist group?
And it’s the only group that matters now.
This maybe be shocking to you, but not the world: I’ve said if for over a year – Bibi and Trump will work hand-in-hand to achieve what Bibi and his allies want (in exchange, Trump gets to build the condos and hotels).
Comment #13 February 5th, 2025 at 11:28 am
fred: We can revisit in a year. If Trump is building condos in Gaza (and also, if the IRS is auditing me… ☹️), then you were right. If Trump has walked back his “expel all Gazans” plan in exchange for minor concessions (or huge concessions, like normalization with Saudi Arabia), and declared victory, then I was right. It’s important to add that, in the latter case, my horror at the insane riskiness of what Trump had done would remain undiminished.
Comment #14 February 5th, 2025 at 11:37 am
Scott #13
The thing is – Trump’s statements on this are (as always) so ambiguous and uninformed that no-one has any idea WTF he’s actually talking about.
E.g. unless I’m mistaken, he didn’t actually say they would relocate Palestinians, but that right now “they’re coming back to a destruction site”… is he talking about them coming back to North Gaza, is he confused thinking they had left Gaza entirely and should stay out?! Or he knows they’re there and will stay, and he thinks the US will rebuild the Gaza strip for them (and outside tourism) with the help of Saudi investments?! What about Hamas?! What about the Israelis? There’s no way to tell, and it’s on purpose.
Not to say that nothing will happen, but until things start happening, it’s all shock and awe bullshit to confuse everyone and see where everyone stands, what works and doesn’t in terms of make a few more billions in his pocket, and try to get credit for “solving” things.
Comment #15 February 5th, 2025 at 11:51 am
You’re a very smart person. You’ve also never engaged in commerce.
You probably don’t know real estate people.
Everything is a negotiation, feigning moral outrage over an initial price is a total misunderstanding of the situation
Comment #16 February 5th, 2025 at 11:57 am
It’s not just insane. Gaza is their home. Any leader of any country who would talk about Israel in the same way (“Let’s just take over and kick out all the Jews”) would rightly be called antisemitic, neo-nazi, and should be thoroughly condemned. Well, the same thing applies. The Palestinians should have a right to their home.
And yet, the Israeli leader Netanyahu apparently said “it’s worth paying attention to this” idea and added that it was “something that could change history”. I find it so perverse that the descendants of those who lived through the holocaust would ever consider such a thing. What a betrayal to his ancestors. If Gaza had any operating trains left, it would be quite the sight. What a lost species we are…
Comment #17 February 5th, 2025 at 12:14 pm
Fergus #15: I’m familiar with basic principles of negotiation and game theory. As I said above, that’s my own best guess for what’s happening, and that’s the only reason I’m not even more outraged than I am. I’m still pretty outraged, though, by Trump’s repeated tactic of risking the stability of the entire world to gain a negotiating advantage, or even just something he can sell to his base as one.
Comment #18 February 5th, 2025 at 12:23 pm
Bruno Loff #16
It’s remarkable how many people suddenly see Gaza as Gazans’ home. No longer refugees from Haifa and Acre, are they?
Comment #19 February 5th, 2025 at 12:31 pm
I stand corrected I guess – later Trump clarified that all Palestinians would be removed from the Gaza strip, “all of them, we’re talking probably about 1.7 millions, or maybe 1.8, but that’s all of them”
Interestingly, the Palestinian population was 2.2 millions before the war started, so maybe Trump is using the actual estimated current figure he was given by US intelligence (or he just made it up?).
Comment #20 February 5th, 2025 at 12:41 pm
Scott #17
I guess I don’t understand what the risk is?
If the answer is image/stability/legitimacy/vibes then we just disagree on the importance of those.
If you have a more concrete risk in mind, I’d like to hear it
Comment #21 February 5th, 2025 at 12:47 pm
fred #19
In fact, 1.7 million is UNRWA’s estimate for the number of “Palestinian Refugees” living in Gaza:
https://www.unrwa.org/gaza-strip-emergency
No reason why “Palestinian Refugees” can’t live elsewhere while they wait for their so-called right of return to be actualized, right?
Comment #22 February 5th, 2025 at 1:11 pm
Fred#4
Are you saying that the US military wish to betray their country and start a coup but are also venial enough not to if sufficiently bribed?
Comment #23 February 5th, 2025 at 3:02 pm
Fergus #15:
According to the International Criminal Court [Article 7 (1) (d)]: the mass deportation or forcible transfer of population is a crime against humanity. Something in which Stalin, among various totalitarian dictators, excelled, I have to add.
Use its threat as a negotiation tool is obviously morally repellent.
And, by the way, I doubt that legit real estate people negotiate acquisitions at discount prices under the threat of otherwise burning down the entire building.
Comment #24 February 5th, 2025 at 3:20 pm
Dear Scott,
I am curious: Do you now think the war in Gaza was worth it? Do you think it increased Israel’s security (now? in 10 years?)?
Do you think that Palestinians now have the same right to be afraid of being expelled/attacked as Israelis? (From your post, it was not clear to me where you stand.)
(For the record, my opinion is that the war in Gaza (not including the war against Hezbollah) was a mistake driven by emotions and crooks in the government; the war was based on bending the truth, and it was organized in large part by individuals with terrible motives. It went about as predicted by experts; we have thousands of deaths, a destroyed society, and parades by Hamas, who will likely rebuild faster than the houses.)
Comment #25 February 5th, 2025 at 3:35 pm
Vassar #22
I’m not saying anything besides the point that the government only works if every actor follows the constitution and laws. I.e. they’re somewhat respecting the oath they took.
Or they should at least *pretend* to follow the laws, and if they get caught, they get back in line (e.g. Nixon).
If the elected government stops following the well agreed rules altogether, openly, all that’s left indeed is force, i.e. Maga is even now saying “try to make me do it!”.
As a recent example of this, the South Korean president being arrested while in office.
But anyway, Trump is the Commander in Chief, so I guess the US military has to follow what he says, even if it’s contrary to the constitution?!
And on top of that Trump has put a super-loyalist as Defense Secretary, so nothing to expect there no matter how bad things get.
So there’s literally nothing left to stop them – no amount of crying and law suits from the Dems is gonna change anything, especially when the Supreme Court has now given POTUS full immunity – it’s not like they’ve carved out exception in case POTUS wipes his ass with the constitution.
What’s happening is a way more organized version of January 6th, a carefully planned takeover such that the institutions (whether dems or gop) will never get a chance to get back in control, we’re now living in Trumpistan :_D
Comment #26 February 5th, 2025 at 3:48 pm
If anyone needs proof that Trump doesn’t even give a shit about the Supreme Court – his overriding their TiK-Tok decision. That’s just a sample, an amuse-bouche for what’s to come… congress and the courts are going to become totally impotent, except when it will come to support Trump taking revenge or needs some rules to be changed for his agenda, which is overtaking Putin in becoming the actual richest man on earth.
At least Putin has the merit to be smarter and do all his manipulation behind the scene, not in the open, as a brag…
What’s really painful is that he can *only* do all this because the US has spent decades building its way as the first super power… do you think any of this would matter if this was Luxembourg rather than the US?… i.e. the vote of a US citizen (used) to weigh much more than the vote from a Luxembourg citizen, or at least it used to, now it’s the other way around.
Comment #27 February 5th, 2025 at 3:48 pm
Scott #7:
If the US president announces a plan to ethnically cleanse Gaza, and the Israeli prime minister standing next to him describes it as “worth paying attention to”, and the plan is met with a positive reception by other senior Israeli ministers, then ethnically cleansing Gaza is in fact well within the mainstream of Zionist thinking, as much as you might wish it weren’t. Consider reducing the amount of time you spend piously lecturing the Palestinians on how they need to clean house.
Comment #28 February 5th, 2025 at 4:39 pm
Bruno Loff #16:
“Any leader of any country who would talk about Israel in the same way (“Let’s just take over and kick out all the Jews”) would rightly be called antisemitic, neo-nazi, and should be thoroughly condemned.”
And yet the Palestinian movement’s leadership and supporters are openly calling precisely just for that – some literally in their charters, some by their declared strategy, and all by their explicit narrative – while you seem to support this movement. Why is that?
Comment #29 February 5th, 2025 at 4:42 pm
MA #24
My understanding is that the war in Gaza was a mixed bag. Hezbollah’s leadership was assassinated, repeatedly, and approximately half of their rocket capacity was destroyed. Iran’s air defenses were virtually destroyed and it might take them as much as a year to get back the capacity they lost. As a bonus, most of Syria’s chemical weapons cache’s were destroyed. Assad’s regime collapsing is very good news to Israel, as Assad was a very close ally of Iran and Syria was an important waypoint for the shipment of weapons from Iran to Gaza. All this should give some at least temporary reprieve to Israel, which they can hopefully use to make it into a more permanent advantage. Hamas has been weakened, but unfortunately not completely destroyed, this is the only thing that makes the very impressive list above a mixed bag.
To Scott, your proposal has been my opinion for some time too, the solution here is probably some occupation of Gaza for some time (might be shorter than a generation, but a generation, which would be ~25 years, is reasonable). Ideally by a neutral third party, but as nobody seems willing to do this, by Israel. I have no idea how politically feasible this is in Israel though.
Comment #30 February 5th, 2025 at 4:52 pm
Actually, the only thing that’s going to oppose Trump is not going to come from the inside but from the outside – add up the tariffs, Gaza, Panama, Greenland, Ukraine, … all this after a mere two weeks, and the USA will quickly become the pariah of the international community, Trump wanted isolationism, he’s gonna get it, but not the kind he was thinking about… he doesn’t seem to realize that the American success relied on its alliances.
And the big winner will be China, which suddenly looks like the reasonable alternative super-power.
Incredible…
Comment #31 February 5th, 2025 at 5:18 pm
Scott,
It would seem Trump’s remarks are quite popular in Israel:
I’ve seen other polling inline with this as well.
Comment #32 February 5th, 2025 at 5:26 pm
US #27:
If the US president announces a plan to ethnically cleanse Gaza, and the Israeli prime minister standing next to him describes it as “worth paying attention to”, and the plan is met with a positive reception by other senior Israeli ministers, then ethnically cleansing Gaza is in fact well within the mainstream of Zionist thinking, as much as you might wish it weren’t.
Call me old-fashioned, but if the U.S. president publicly proposes his own initiative to relocate Gazans, and the Israeli prime minister—while visiting his country’s most important ally—stands beside him at the White House, and says it’s “worth paying attention to”, then moving Gazans out of Gaza is literally a mainstream US thinking, while so far from the Israeli mainstream that the prime minister neither endorsed nor supported it, opting instead for a noncommittal utterly vague response.
Comment #33 February 5th, 2025 at 5:31 pm
It’s hard to imagine that Trump’s comment is anything more than rhetoric—tacky, yet intended to be as outlandish as the chant “From the River to the Sea”—in an effort to elevate the discussion. It’s strange that it has come to this point, but it has.
My guess is that Trump wants the Palestinians to realize they have little choice but to negotiate on terms more favorable to Israel. He will likely threaten to cut all monetary aid to Egypt & Jordan if they refuse to take in Gazans. In response, they will seek to avoid that outcome by facilitating a restructuring of Gaza and a security operations agreement with Israel.
Thoughts, Scott?
Comment #34 February 5th, 2025 at 5:36 pm
I want to thank Fred (#6, #8) for saving me from having to point out the (likely?, obvious?, worstcase?) consequences of #3.
The weeks between Election Day and Jan 20 had an eerie calmness that reminded me of the middle of the last episode of “The Haunting of Bly Manor”, where Dani and Jamie have escaped to America, but with a foreboding that the ghost was going to catch up with Dani.
As it turns out, things are looking much worse than I had expected or imagined.
Comment #35 February 5th, 2025 at 6:39 pm
Adam Treat #31
Of course Israelis believe Gazans should relocate. In addition to the obvious fact that they’d be better off in every way if they did, who’d want Hamas as their neighbor? The only non-trivial part of that poll is the Israeli Arab response, i.e. the 46% that don’t view the plan as immoral. Now, if the question was “Arabs from Gaza should be forcibly relocated to another country”, that’d be a slightly different matter.
Comment #36 February 5th, 2025 at 7:04 pm
Just in case this hasn’t bubbled up yet for someone here, Kushner already suggested what’s going to happen quite a year ago, so it shouldn’t come up as a total shock… it’s just that, as usual, if you took that shit seriously you’d be accused of TDS:
https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2024/03/20/jared-kushner-gaza-waterfront-property-valuable-trump-israel-sot-vpx.cnn
Comment #37 February 5th, 2025 at 7:53 pm
I am always curious what an intelligent Trump Supporter says about some of his obv bad ideas. Here is what I’ve heard
1) Don’t take him seriously. (and those are his Supporters)
2) He is posturing- in this case he is putting pressure on Hamas to negotiate.
That has worked before:
Pulling out of the Iran Nuclear Deal would get us a better deal (it didn’t).
The Tarrifs are a threat which will position us better in trade talks (It hasn’t).
The threat to hang Mike Pence wasn’t serious, it was just to induce him to do the right think by not cerfiying Biden (it did not do that to Mike Pence).
3) In short, the Madman theory of politics doesn’t work if the leader really IS a madman. Or even just a Mad Man.
Comment #38 February 5th, 2025 at 8:02 pm
fred #12 & US #27
I’m a long time lurker. Your comments make me want to set one thing straight: the current Israeli government is not Zionist. I’m sure this will draw some anger but it’s a rather common opinion here.
While technically the government stands for the existence of Israel (certainly any government spokesperson will say so!) it is somewhat removed from what a large fraction of the Israeli public perceives as Zionism.
Let’s review, briefly: the coalition consists of the Likud, two Orthodox Jewish parties, “Jewish Power” (may their name be erased from this world), the Religious Zionist Party, “New Hope”, and Noam. Most of these are greedy crooks. Nearly all of the rest are supremacists or really weird right wing nuts, like the last party which is anti-gay.
In more detail:
The Likud is a party with a long history. Today it mostly seems to stand for the continued rule of Benjamin Netanyahu. It has no professed ideology except that they represent a “strong right.” They have not published a program or manifesto in years. The leadership is allegedly corrupt from the top down. As far as I can tell they like shouting, money, and conspiracy theories about the left. (This isn’t a silly caricature.)
The Orthodox Jewish parties are broadly concerned with the (mostly financial) welfare of their voter base. They are happy to sell their political power to the highest bidder, and this is consistently Netanyahu. One of their main goals at this point in time is to ensure their voters never have to serve in the army, and to get more money for yeshivas. They are not Zionist basically by definition.
“Jewish Power” (it hurts to have to write this name) is as terrible as what it probably sounds like if you replace the first word with “White.” Its forerunner (Kahana’s party) was boycotted across the political spectrum. The reason it got into the parliament is that Netanyahu convinced the party head to temporarily unite forces with the head of the so-called religious zionist party. In short, it is a hateful supremacist party (as exist in many places these days, but in a country with more conflict than the norm) and a majority of zionists would distance themselves from it. Shortly before PM Rabin’s assassination the party head stole Rabin’s car emblem and threatened Rabin on TV.
The religious zionist party purports to represent religious zionists. Thankfully I also know religious zionists whom it does not represent. It is part of the extreme right. The head of the party was once arrested with 700 liters of gasoline, possibly in an attempt to blow up a highway.
New Hope’s selling point was (to oversimplify) that they’d be more responsible and less corrupt than the Likud, but they sold out. I never bothered to read what they really stand for because they oppose a two state solution, making them too far right for me to consider.
Noam is anti LGBT and as far as I could tell this was a major part of their platform.
———————
In this list I would argue that at most one or two parties can really be classified as zionist, if you look at what that meant a few decades ago: to advance the existence and welfare of a Jewish state in Israel. This makes zionists at most a minority in the government. And they do not represent what many Israelis think of as zionism.
One quote from the declaration of independence appears consistently in protests:
“The state of Israel will … foster the development of the country for the benefit of all its inhabitants; it will be based on freedom, justice and peace as envisaged by the prophets of Israel; it will ensure complete equality of social and political rights to all its inhabitants irrespective of religion, race or sex; it will guarantee freedom of religion, conscience, language, education and culture; it will safeguard the Holy Places of all religions; and it will be faithful to the principles of the Charter of the United Nations.”
[The omitted “…” part is specifically about Jewish immigration. But before you call me somehow dishonest for omitting it, it is not that part which is consistently quoted in protests by Jewish Israelis against the government.]
This quote was mainstream zionist thinking a few years ago. These days there is no mainstream zionist thinking. Instead there is some very polarizing media, growing extremism, and criminally bad leadership. I suspect this happened because the conflict and religious factionalism made modern media (social or otherwise) more difficult for our democracy to withstand than elsewhere in the world. This is why many people around my generation are thinking of emigrating. E.g., if my wife and I get postdocs abroad this year we will probably not return except to visit family.
If you made it this far, thanks for the patience with my writing and English. I don’t expect to take the time to discuss any of this further here, but do suspect this post may draw some trolling responses. Peace!
Comment #39 February 5th, 2025 at 8:24 pm
Fergus #20:
I guess I don’t understand what the risk is?
Just off the top of my head:
(1) Other countries might now take preemptive actions against the US and Israel, to stop or deter what they fear will be ethnic cleansing.
(2) Even if this started as a negotiating bluff, it could snowball and turn into actual ethnic cleansing, with all the horrors that would entail. Many historians believe the Holocaust itself had a similar origin. In 1939, Hitler gave a speech to the Reichstag where he “prophesied” that, if the US and UK fought a war to stop the Nazi conquest, that would mean “the end of the Jewish race in Europe.” Hitler actually believed that would be a perfect deterrent since, in his imagination, the US and UK were controlled by Jews. Then, when it turned out not to be a deterrent at all, rather than reevaluate his worldview, he decided instead to make good on his “prophecy.”
Comment #40 February 5th, 2025 at 8:43 pm
US #27:
If the US president announces a plan to ethnically cleanse Gaza, and the Israeli prime minister standing next to him describes it as “worth paying attention to”, and the plan is met with a positive reception by other senior Israeli ministers, then ethnically cleansing Gaza is in fact well within the mainstream of Zionist thinking, as much as you might wish it weren’t. Consider reducing the amount of time you spend piously lecturing the Palestinians on how they need to clean house.
The difficulty for you is that ethnically cleansing Israel of most or all of its Jews has always been the explicit mainstream of anti-Zionist thinking, uninterruptedly for a century, almost by the definition of “anti-Zionism”!
“Go back to Poland!” shout the protesters. “We don’t want no two states, we want all of 48!” “Glory to the martyrs!” “Long live the intifada!” They couldn’t possibly be clearer.
By contrast, ethnically cleansing Gaza (or the West Bank) of Palestinians never used to be in the mainstream of Zionist thinking: it was unequivocally a radical fringe view. It’s taken not only Arafat’s rejection of the two-state solution and the hundreds of suicide bombers, but then the even greater existential horror of October 7, and now Bibi’s craven fealty to Trump, to put ethnic cleansing clearly into Israel’s mainstream discussion for the first time—a dark and ugly precedent that I abhor. I’ll believe peace is imminent once ethnic cleansing has exited the mainstream of both Zionist and anti-Zionist thinking.
Comment #41 February 5th, 2025 at 8:53 pm
How about before talking about “ethnic cleansing” we actually let Gazans leave voluntarily, which Egypt currently prevents them from doing with the support of the entire world, and see where that takes us?
Comment #42 February 5th, 2025 at 9:45 pm
I think it l probably mattered a lot that the Germans and Japanese knew that they were beaten, and maybe even knew they were guilty and deserved to be beaten. The Gazans still think the can chase Jews back to Poland like Algerians chasing out the French. They are already planning their next pogrom.
Comment #43 February 5th, 2025 at 10:45 pm
Scott, you wrote “ethnically cleansing Gaza (or the West Bank) of Palestinians never used to be in the mainstream of Zionist thinking: it was unequivocally a radical fringe view.”
Please google “zionist historical quotes on taking all of palestine” and read through the sites that come up. I realize quotes may have missing context. I don’t know exactly how to weigh these statements against other historical Zionist views, or how they fit within the overall lives and overall sets of statements and actions of the speakers. But these are coming from leaders of Zionism and of Israel, and they are pretty blatant. There is something represented in those quotes that needs to be reckoned with, tho I can’t tell you exactly what the reckoning looks like.
Comment #44 February 5th, 2025 at 11:19 pm
Ken #43: Yes, many Zionists talked about ethnically cleansing Gaza and the West Bank via population transfers (which used to be common all over the world). But faced with determined opposition they never actually tried to do it (despite having the physical power), nor did the Israeli government ever announce to the world an intention of doing it. That’s a taboo that (alas) is finally crumbling now because of Trump and Bibi and Smotrich and Ben-Gvir and October 7.
The other side, by contrast, openly announced from the very beginning its intention to ethnically cleanse Israel of Jews—most often, not via population transfer but via mass murder. And it actually tried its best to carry out that program whenever an opportunity arose, including during the Holocaust and in 1948 and in 1967 and in 1973 and in 2023.
The antizionists will fill bookshelves talking about the first part, while passing over the second part in silence. That, in my view, is the intellectual dishonesty at the core of their entire enterprise, to the extent they also want to present themselves as liberal humanitarians.
Comment #45 February 5th, 2025 at 11:34 pm
Scott #40:
>It’s taken not only Arafat’s rejection of the two-state solution and the hundreds of suicide bombers, but then the even greater existential horror of October 7, and now Bibi’s craven fealty to Trump, to put ethnic cleansing clearly into Israel’s mainstream discussion for the first time—a dark and ugly precedent that I abhor.
Absent from that list is anything that Israel/US have done, with the exception of the actions of two *individuals*.
Simply put, literally everything that has transpired that led to this ethnic cleansing discussion becoming part of mainstream **Israel’s** discussion, is actually not Israel’s fault (again, except for the individual called Bibi and a few others), but almost all of it is on Palestinians and Arabs.
Just like US is always *dragged* into wars (in CNN parlance) and it’s never a choice, Israel was also *dragged* into this way of thinking, through no fault of its own.
Why is it so hard to see that Netanyahu and his coalition didn’t appear out of the ether, and were not just some natural disaster? They were all a *choice* made by the Israeli population over and over and over again, all democratically elected. Occupation, letting settlers loose on Palestinian lands and properties, and its ramifications in fueling the cycle of hatred and extremism, there were also all choices made by the most moral army after the big bang.
Validimir:
>How about before talking about “ethnic cleansing” we actually let Gazans leave voluntarily, which Egypt currently prevents them from doing with the support of the entire world, and see where that takes us?
If there is so much concern for the Gazans well-being and freedom by the Israel’s state, well one proposal would be a temporary relocation plan to Israel itself until Gaza is rebuilt. I am sure Arab nations would be happy to pay for it ,and logistically it would be the easiest thing to do. Israel has, after all, excelled at creating open air prisons, just make it a tad bit larger until Gaza is slowly rebuilt.
Comment #46 February 6th, 2025 at 12:11 am
Another example of why this ethnic cleansing discussion was already in the mainstream before Trump made his proposal:
https://x.com/NeriaKraus/status/1887277715281035287
72% support among Israelis for Trump “relocation” plan, poll by channel 13.
This kind of supermajority support doesn’t happen if the mainstream wasn’t already there a long time ago.
So Scott, you can cross Bibi craven fielty to Trump from the list of things leading to this kind of thinking among Israelis.
Conveniently, your list now becomes sth that only concerns Arabs and Palestinians’ actions, so now we can say it’s only their fault.
Comment #47 February 6th, 2025 at 6:38 am
Even though some people could find humiliating when you have to state obvious things, I wholeheartedly support your effort, Scott. Although, your comments seem to imply that you think it’s a Trump way to get an advantage for America (with which you disagree). Many other people also think it’s just his way of making America “great”. This is a completely wrong assumption. The goal is to transfer all the power, wealth and resources to the “right” people, not to make America great. In fact, it is much easier to consume something when it’s small, not big. So that, if America will lose its leadership position (in the sane world), then it will be much easier to consume it. Simply because of the coming chaos.
Comment #48 February 6th, 2025 at 7:52 am
Here’s one lens with which to understand what’s happening:
If you spend decades telling men that their inborn sexual desires are inherently problematic, creepy, and gross, making them no better than sexual predators … eventually some of those men will become actual sexual predators, figuring “in for a penny, in for a pound.”
If you spend years telling Silicon Valley nerds that all their supposed ideals (and donations to Democrats and anti-malaria charities) are just a lie and smokescreen and they’re no better than racist, fascist Trump supporters … eventually some of those you sneered at will become actual Trump supporters.
And if you spend generations telling Israelis that their country — i.e., the only thing standing between them and physical annihilation — is a fake, illegitimate settler colony that deserves to be wiped from the earth … eventually some Israelis will become actual settler colonialists, cutting up the West Bank and even plotting to evict two million Gazans to build condos on their land.
Crucially, in not one of these cases do I defend the people who ultimately became the other side’s hateful fantasy of them. I’m a “maintain your enlightened, humanistic ideals to the death” kind of guy.
But I also don’t know how many more catastrophic losses it’s going to take until the left finally gets the fundamental lesson beaten into its head: give people an out. Give them a way to join Team Good, without having to renounce everything they are. If you don’t, you’ll predictably find some of them on Team Bad, exactly where you always said they were, back when it was a slander.
Comment #49 February 6th, 2025 at 7:58 am
Theorist Israel #28
Where have I expressed support for Hamas? I never did. In fact when I wrote the sentence you quotes, Hamas was precisely one of the examples I was thinking about (really). But the existence of a terrorist/fascist group I’m a powerful position in a society is not a green light to exterminate an entire nation.
“An eye for an eye, a tooth for a tooth” means precisely that, it does not mean “If someone takes out your eye, first torture them, then kill them, then kill their family, then take all their friends’ property, then…” The latter attitude can only be fueled by the same feelings that fueled the Nazis into the holocaust, and fueled Hamas into October 7. “Never again” only makes any sense if it goes both ways, imho. The way I see it, if Israel goes along with trump’s plan, that is a profound betrayal of its origin story.
Comment #50 February 6th, 2025 at 8:16 am
shtetl-fan #45
> If there is so much concern for the Gazans well-being and freedom by the Israel’s state, well one proposal would be a temporary relocation plan to Israel itself until Gaza is rebuilt.
Did you really just suggest relocating innocent civilians into the country accused of committing genocide against them? One might almost think you care nothing at all about Palestinians.
Comment #51 February 6th, 2025 at 9:50 am
It’s not as if Palestinian children are born with a murdering hatred for Jews magically baked into their brain as if it was part of their DNA.
This sort of hatred as an idea gets a hold way more easily not as some sort of abstract pure theoretical concept (that can certainly happen, but that’s much harder) but because of the reality of living circumstances and close proximity.
That’s why Indonesian Muslims don’t spend their days thinking about how much they should hate Jews or Christians or whoever people is living thousands of miles away from them.
Geographic proximity is what matters the most in how two people perceive one another (unless you’re talking about super powers when narratives makes distance irrelevant), and the more the hatred is growing, the more the two sides start to resemble one another in the way they want to solve the problem, because physical contact makes it so that it’s always on everyone’s mind and it keeps degenerating into an endless and pointless (“they started it!”) escalating an-eye-for-an-eye/tit-for-tat spiral of misery, until one side gets a clear tactical advantage and the other one gets obliterated.
Comment #52 February 6th, 2025 at 9:57 am
Scott #48:
Yes, you described me (although my life circumstances were slightly different than any of your three examples).
Yes, when insufferable, nasty, self-righteous, censorious, controlling etc. people admonish you, pass judgement on you, try to control you, call you a monster, a predator, a freak, a creep, a weirdo, a self-centered contemptible fool—as they did to me—two things might happen. You turn yourself into the dangerous monster they always judged you to be—and you turn your newfound malevolence, in rage, against those same people, those horrible people who did this to you.
Call it **ressentiment**?
I do not know how to escape it. I don’t think I will ever escape it. I am a pit of rage and hatred and despair. Everything I am exists in reference to the people I hate. That is how I define myself.
Unfortunately, I did not have the moral discipline you did.
Comment #53 February 6th, 2025 at 10:11 am
fred #51: The blindingly obvious causal factor you fail to mention is that Palestinian children are explicitly taught hatred of Jews from the earliest age. They’re dressed up in combat fatigues and given machine guns. They sing songs about how their destiny in life is to kill the Yahud and liberate Palestine, how the highest aspiration is martyrdom. Many peoples throughout history suffered even worse oppression than the Palestinians but without the violent indoctrination, they didn’t respond to that oppression with the severe cultural pathology one sees in Gaza. If not for the indoctrination, there would’ve been a negotiated two-state solution generations ago, and Israel and Palestine would be living in peace.
Comment #54 February 6th, 2025 at 10:19 am
Kyle #52: Then develop that moral discipline. Help someone who isn’t you, whose life sucks in a different way than yours. Enjoy that person’s gratitude—the knowledge that right now, as far as they’re concerned, you’re a genuinely good person and not secretly a bad one. Then help someone else.
If you won’t do this because it’s a categorical imperative, then do it because, for depressed, lonely, nerdy guys, this is the way to stop wallowing in misery and to live a fulfilled life.
Comment #55 February 6th, 2025 at 10:21 am
Kyle, Scott
Jeez, it sounds like you guys somehow had way too much time on your hands to brood when growing up as teenagers or were actively seeking for other people’s opinions on you…
e.g. for me and *all* my nerdy friends in high school and Polytechnique school (in Europe in the 80s/90s), we were just way too busy to even think about anything else than doing homework/lab work/studying for exams from 7am to 8pm, and then the free time was just more nerdy stuff for fun… we didn’t have social media of course, so maybe spend less time on it.
Don’t let other people tell you who you are, find out for yourself.
Comment #56 February 6th, 2025 at 10:30 am
A world where a country invades another country, murders and rapes civilians, and then gets worldwide support (without even apologizing, or compensating the victims) is an insane world, stripped of justice, reason, self-consistency and self-preservation.
Nowadays Israeli babies (or their bodies) are traded as commodity.
The Prosecutor of the ICC shake hands with an ISIS terrorist while calling for an arrest of the Israeli prime minister.
What about privileged white people encouraging a barbarian tribe to fight a country with nuclear weapons? How many people would die in the end of that timeline? What’s the right thing to do when all players (including France Germany and Britain and the Biden administration) push towards deaths of hundreds of millions?
Transporting 1.8M people is not a bad idea. If anyone has a problem with it, they should think about their actions who lead to this point, and to the alternatives.
Comment #57 February 6th, 2025 at 10:35 am
Scott,
It seems the military is being instructed to prepare to carry out Trump’s ideas:
Of course, the world waits for what Israel means by “voluntary” which is doing a lot of heavy work right now.
Just one thought that occurred to me… since October 7th the world has been told again and again by the pro-palestinian side that Gaza is the world’s largest **refugee camp** while now we’re being told that actually Gaza is **home.**
Perhaps the idea here is to record each person living in Gazas understanding whether they consider it their permanent **home** or if they are just waiting to return to their **real homes** via the right to return?
Comment #58 February 6th, 2025 at 10:54 am
a devil’s advocate comment on #53:
Any idea on what fraction of “Palestinian children are explicitly taught hatred of Jews from the earliest age”? How does it compare to the fraction of Christian children taught to hate people with nontypical gender ideas? Or, for that matter, Jewish children taught to hate Palestinians? Etc.
I have no clue on these numbers, but they are relevant to the point made. A related aspect is that powerless groups generally talk louder and do more theater because that is all they got.
Comment #59 February 6th, 2025 at 11:14 am
Scott #53
in the meantime, Blinken said that Hamas has already pretty much refilled its ranks with new recruits… So you guys did Hamas a big favor by blindly leveling Gaza and its population.
I warned that this would happen without a real end game plan, just like the US realized after years of war in Afghanistan and Iraq as a response to 911.
The plan of removing the entire Palestinian population out of Gaza isn’t even a realistic/feasible end game given that Hamas is still around… like, you guys need 2, 3, 4 more years to clean it all out?
If not, then, as an Israeli, what’s your plan to save Israel?
Comment #60 February 6th, 2025 at 12:06 pm
fred #59:
(1) I’m not Israeli (though I have Israeli family).
(2) No one disputes that Hamas’s military capability was massively degraded. Iran would resupply it, but Iran’s military capability was massively degraded as well. And, incredibly, Hezbollah (which one had 100k missiles ready to fire at Israel’s population centers) has been decimated and the Assad regime no longer exists. By all those measures, the war has been a success.
(3) That Hamas still has any power at all testifies to the lengths to which Israel went not to kill civilians (and of course its own hostages). Imagine, for comparison, tens of thousands of Nazis (albeit diminished in power) still strutting around German cities after WWII because the Allies were too squeamish about civilian casualties to prevent that outcome.
Comment #61 February 6th, 2025 at 12:07 pm
Adam Treat
“Perhaps the idea here is to record each person living in Gazas understanding whether they consider it their permanent **home** or if they are just waiting to return to their **real homes** via the right to return?”
Man, all that fucking hair splitting about who belongs where, and how far back to go (go far enough and the two clans are indistinguishable),… i.e. you could switch “Gaza” for “Israel” in the sentence above too… and wasn’t Zionism about creating a state as a “refuge” for Hebrews, a safe place after WW2?
no wonder you guys still don’t have a solution in sight.
Comment #62 February 6th, 2025 at 12:11 pm
Scott #60
I was somehow under the impression you got dual citizenship years back in order to be able to vote against Netanyahu.
” Imagine tens of thousands of Nazis (albeit less organized and powerful) still strutting around German cities after WWII because the Allies were too squeamish about civilian casualties to prevent such an outcome.”
Depends on your definition of a Nazi.
Technically that’s a party member, and there were plenty of low profile “Nazis” still alive after WW2 ended
Then there’s the high profile ones, like Von Braun.
Comment #63 February 6th, 2025 at 1:17 pm
Vladimir #50:
Two things:
1-It seems like you are confused, that proposal was a hypothetical to make you see why “let’s just kick them out of there because we are worried about their safety and wellbeing” isn’t quite descriptive of IDF feelings twoards Palestinians.
2-But also you seem to have a very narrow view of the state of mind and actions of a genocidal entity.
The definition of genocide does not assume/state that the genocidal regime at all times and in all circumstances will continue its genocide.
Upon enough pressure by the world (really the US,which is why that proposal is hypothetical since it’s never gonna happen), Israel could see that e.g. its own economy may be at risk if it doesn’t comply with a certain request.
Comment #64 February 6th, 2025 at 3:02 pm
shtetl-fan #45:
> Why is it so hard to see that Netanyahu and his coalition didn’t appear out of the ether, and were not just some natural disaster? They were all a *choice* made by the Israeli population over and over and over again, all democratically elected. Occupation, letting settlers loose on Palestinian lands and properties, and its ramifications in fueling the cycle of hatred and extremism, there were also all choices made by the most moral army after the big bang.
They were a choice. But let’s roll back the history a bit here. During the 90s and early 2000s, the Israeli public multiple times chose people pursuing negotiations and peace. Rabin, Barak, Sharon (the second time, when the intention was following the Gaza disengagement plan), Olmert. Even the first time Bibi was elected, he actually got *less* votes than Livni, who would pursue peace.
The thing is, the Israeli public was met with Palestinian refusal to accept any peace agreement, refusal to offer any alternative they would accept and a walking away from the negotiating table, and – most importantly – the second intifada, which say daily terror attacks. This was in response *to the peace process*.
This effectively killed the Israeli left, because it didn’t have a good answer for – now what? We tried peace, and got terror attacks. We tried unilaterally leaving Gaza, and got Hamas, the perpetrators of those terror attacks, elected, and rockets fired at Israel. Now what? What else is there?
Comment #65 February 6th, 2025 at 8:51 pm
I support the Trump plan, but I doubt it will ever be implemented.
The past 16 months have drained whatever sympathy I had left for the people of Gaza.
If, as is most likely the case, Trump’s plan does not get implemented, then the important thing is to continue applying the hostage release ransom deal, and then resume the war. Without the Trump plan, the war should end with a total Israeli victory, in which Gaza ends up like present-day Judea and Samaria (although maybe without Jewish settlements, although I personally support rebuilding Gush Katif).
Comment #66 February 6th, 2025 at 9:13 pm
To echo what Raoul Ohio and I were saying earlier in the thread, two videos I urge everyone to watch.
Video 1) a reality check on what’s about to happen in the USA with the rule of law (spoiler: it’s ending).
Comment #67 February 6th, 2025 at 9:16 pm
Video 2) the effect of Musk’s actions for the average citizen and their elected officials
Comment #68 February 6th, 2025 at 11:01 pm
Edan Maor #64:
>They were a choice. But let’s roll back the history a bit here.
Let’s not! Let’s not do that kind of exercise as (1) we all know it leads to nowhere other than revisiting old debates of what was the chicken and what was the egg and (2) I will explain why it is actually irrelevant to the case here.
I can go on and on about the occupation and war crimes by IDF pre 2000 and use that to justify terrorist actions or whatever else from the other side that came afterwards.
Reading through the arguments made by colleagues here, there is unfortunately a tendency to fall back on history and somehow try to *justify/absolve their side from* whatever horrific action is/was committed, or perhaps, if one were to be more charitable, they are trying to contextualize it while conveniently ignoring half or more of the picture.
I guess all I am trying to point out is : You cannot simply say “Here is a list of everything that led to my side doing war crimes and planning for ethnic cleansing, and it certainly doesn’t contain anything from my side”, and then expect people to not react to that. Wherever this kind of statement is coming from, it is definitely not intellectual honesty.
On a more general note let us be reminded of sth and why all the above is mostly irrelevant and a distraction:
When South Africa argued for their case, and the Israeli lawyer defended Israel, they didn’t talk about their version of Yaser Arafat or who did what 20 yrs ago! they talked about the facts of the case and the legality of specific actions, and when I say specific I mean specific as in: “Battalion X did Y in time Z” (and we know about it because they posted it on their Tiktok/Instagram!).
We cannot debate these things in here, so we just go back to theoretical discussions; most here are armed with their readings from mainstream media which is itself mostly focused on the “theory”; but let’s be clear that in this case, it is very much the “experiments” and what is happening on the ground that is forming the basis of the allegations against IDF. And this is the kind of content that, understandably, people in this sphere would rather avoid; this kind of content lives, not on the front page of Washington Post, but on the Tiktok account of some IDF soldier.
I could go further: One could go as far as assuming that IDF were human angels pre Oct 7, and still it may not help them in the court because almost all evidence submitted is dated post Oct 7. The Israeli lawyer would have been laughed out of the court had she started arguing about what Yaser Arafat said or did in 2000.. and guess what, she didn’t.
Anyways, my point is: It’s of course fine to talk about history and educate each other, but let’s not *use* that to make justifications of the above kind.
Comment #69 February 7th, 2025 at 2:51 am
It would be hilarious were anybody in charge seriously proposing to resettle Israel to the lands of the murderers. I’m German, and the extreme right here makes a scene of being very “pro-Israel” (and therefore they can’t be Nazi!!!11), though it’s really anti-Arab/Muslim sentiment with some “the enemy of my enemy…” sprinkled in.
The minds blown from such considerations would be a sight to see, as they really prefer their Jews to be Far Right & Far Away.
Comment #70 February 7th, 2025 at 5:15 am
Scott
“3. I wonder whether all the anti-Israel activists in the US who withheld their vote (or even switched to Trump) to punish Biden and Harris for their support of Israel, are now happy with what they’ve gotten.”
You can flip the argument around:
– the “sin” of that group (pro-Palestinian “activists”, i.e. US Muslims too) was being naive at recognizing the total extent to which the US government is in the pocket of Israel and its lobbies.
– given how much unwavering support Biden and his administration were already giving Israel, why wasn’t that enough for all the pro-Israel who voted for Trump (all the Jews I know in my circle in NYC supported him)? It’s as if Trump’s current “plan” was expected/hoped.
Comment #71 February 7th, 2025 at 5:52 am
Another possibility is that the goal of Trump’s lunatic Gaza announcement is entirely domestic, to please the pro-Israel lobbies in the US: create another wave of “Pro-Palestine” protests, characterize them again as antisemitic, and do all the things he promised: arrests, jail time, deportations (probably to Guantanamo).
Comment #72 February 7th, 2025 at 8:07 am
shtetl-fan #68: I actually agree with you that an obsession with “rolling back the tape of history” isn’t healthy here. I’ll do it when necessary to refute narratives based on fake history but I don’t love it.
But I don’t think an obsessive focus on the tit-for-tat of the present is healthy either: we saw how everyone’s views of every specific incident (eg the bombing of the al-Ahli hospital / Hamas command center) was completely determined by their general views anyway.
The ideal for me is to focus on the future. Who, on either side, is starting from the only humane future that makes sense in any world like our present one — namely, the two-state solution — and then working backwards to see what would need to happen to get us there? Then that’s who I support. Who, on either side, is using rhetoric that seems like it could only possibly end with the mass expulsion or extermination of one side or the other, whether or not they’re honest enough to come out and say that explicitly? Then that’s who I’ve been consistently against.
Comment #73 February 7th, 2025 at 8:50 am
Scott #72
> Who, on either side, is using rhetoric that seems like it could only possibly end with the mass expulsion or extermination of one side or the other, whether or not they’re honest enough to come out and say that explicitly?
Mass expulsion or extermination is exactly where we’re headed, according to Benny Morris:
https://www.haaretz.com/opinion/2025-01-30/ty-article-opinion/.premium/its-either-two-states-or-genocide/00000194-b831-d5a7-ab9d-ffb9b2450000
I think he’s right, almost trivially so; it’s entirely consistent with everything we know about human history and human nature. It’s time to put our utilitarian hats on and decide which course of action will result in the least harm to Gazans. I have yet to hear a proposal which is both more humane and more feasible than Trump’s.
Comment #74 February 7th, 2025 at 9:20 am
Scott #72,
“namely, the two-state solution” vs “mass expulsion … of one side or the other”
Let’s talk about this a bit. Allow me to play devil’s advocate and imagine the following scenario. After the hostage release is over Israel turns over management of Gaza to the United States. The United States then begins an expulsion operation where every current resident of Gaza is required to declare whether they are *refugees* without a permanent home OR if they consider Gaza their ancestral home and give up any claim to another home. Those that declare themselves refugees are forced to board planes for a new refugee camp in let’s say south america somewhere. This new refugee camp is built with a gazillion dollars and the conditions in the camp are one of absolute _luxury_.
The people administering the camp and those responsible for transporting the refugees are the nicest and politest people one can imagine. They also have a super power that allows them to gently remove the refugees and relocate them without nary anyone getting hurt. The new refugee camp has access to state of the art health care, food, education.
For those who choose to stay in Gaza they sign over any “right of return” as they have permanently decided that Gaza is their home. The United States invests heavily in rebuilding Gaza and takes over administration. Again, the people on the ground are the sweetest people you can imagine and have a super power allowing themselves to operate without hurting anyone nor allowing themselves to be hurt.
__
Now, I’m the first to admit that the above is a _fantastical_ scenario completely divorced from real world considerations. IT IS MEANT TO BE FANTASTICAL. Why? Because at this point it seems the opposite is also fantastical. A two state solution when one side insists they are both refugees and at home and *refuses* to let the other side exist in peace.
What I’m asking of you is to show me how the two state solution isn’t every bit as fantastical as the ridiculous premise I put up above.
—
From what I can tell what Trump has been talking about is a fantasy and borders on the most ridiculous. But he hasn’t been saying extermination. At least not yet. And yet we’re supposed to believe that what he’s talking about is somehow so ridiculous while the other side has the sober take.
How do the people calling for the two state solution not see themselves as every bit a caricature as they see Trump at this point?
PS: I erased the talk about extermination as it is verboten by anyone of any kind of moral conscience.
Comment #75 February 7th, 2025 at 10:10 am
Adam Treat #74: I didn’t follow everything you wrote, but I actually love the idea of asking every resident of Gaza to choose whether
(1) Gaza is their home and they wish permanently to reside in Gaza — in which case, they hereby formally renounce all claims to Israel, or
(2) they’re a refugee — in which case, they can resettle in any other country willing to take them, at the expense of that country or Israel or the US.
Such a voluntary program would actually be consistent with the two-state solution while also implementing part of Trump and Bibi’s otherwise fantastical scheme.
Comment #76 February 7th, 2025 at 10:34 am
Scott #75,
I think it a good idea too but as we see in this thread it will be met with cries and howls from the progressive left pro-palestinian groups. Our own Fred #67 says international laws governing refugees is “hair splitting” and wants to ‘both-sides!’ it. Make no mistake that any program to actually ask that question and record answers from people in Gaza would be greeted with howls of outrage.
Comment #77 February 7th, 2025 at 11:48 am
Scott #60
The issue is that you want this to be true and blind yourself to evidence that is contrary. 972mag among others, has from the start documented evidence of indiscriminate killing, based on interviews with Israeli intelligence. Here’s the most recent one
https://www.972mag.com/tunnels-hamas-lethal-gas-bombs-gaza/
Comment #78 February 7th, 2025 at 12:16 pm
Here’s another fantastical scenario to solve the issue:
We seed all humans in the region with a swarm of very advanced nanobots that have one purpose: whenever a Muslim Gaza woman and a Jewish Israeli woman are getting pregnant at around the same time, the nanobots inside those two women coordinate and entirely rewrite the DNA of each fetus as the DNA of the other.
Comment #79 February 7th, 2025 at 12:42 pm
Adam Threat #76
Talking about “two-siding”, you and Hamas clearly agree on something: Palestinian/Gaza “refugees” are not your responsibility!
https://www.timesofisrael.com/top-hamas-official-claims-group-is-not-responsible-for-defending-gazan-civilians/amp/
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=vdmtfRj6KX0
Comment #80 February 7th, 2025 at 1:00 pm
Talking about incoming “howls of outrage”, Adam Threat’s proposal for Palestinian “refugees” to voluntarily leave Gaza reminds me of this (go figure…):
“Between 1933 and 1937, a total of about 130,000 Jews left the national socialist Germany. Many left for South Africa, Palestine and Latin America. Many also went to Eastern Europe, particularly families who had moved to Germany from there previously. However, thousands remained in Northern and Western Europe. In a letter to an acquaintance in Buenos Aires (Argentina), Edith Frank complained at the end of 1937: “I think that all the German Jews are searching the world today and there is no room for them anymore.””
Comment #81 February 7th, 2025 at 1:50 pm
RB #77: No, the most trivial moral reflection is enough to see that
(1) the population of Gaza is now higher than it was in October 2023, whereas
(2) if the balance of military power had gone the other way, every single Jew in Israel would’ve been killed in a matter of days.
Only the unstated premise that Israelis, being Jews, must be held to a 100,000x higher moral standard could make people almost physically unable to keep (1) and (2) in their brains at the same time.
As for 972mag, it has as much moral credibility with mainstream Jews and Israelis as the Neturei Karta, showing up to Iran’s Holocaust denial conference with their black hats and beards.
Comment #82 February 7th, 2025 at 2:27 pm
Scott #81,
Are you referring to this projection from August 2023? If so, you are incorrect. https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2024/dec/06/instagram-posts/has-gazas-population-grown-2-since-oct-7-2023-no-t/
This idea of humane bombing as evidenced by purported ‘population increase’ is on par with the other comments about ‘despite the starvation look how well-fed they look’.
The high proportion of women and children casualties in the war, especially in the early stages where their death count was proportional to their population share, shows that civilian casualties were not a significant consideration.
Comment #83 February 7th, 2025 at 2:44 pm
Scott #81
“(1) the population of Gaza is now higher than it was in October 2023, whereas”
Assuming the Gaza population average lifespan is 70 years, if it kept constant it would have anout 33,000 deaths and births per year.
If the war added an extra 30,000 direct and indirect deaths (that’s a very low estimate), but the population somehow stayed constant after the 1 year war, it means basically that, the birth rate would have to be twice the natural death rate, which is a bit lower than the current world average.
But that normal rate seems hard to achieve given the reality of living in Gaza in the last year:
lack of food and water and meds, totally unsanitary conditions, disease, constant bombing or fear of bombing, constant relocation from fleeing or being pushed around,… all this leading to massive physical strain and mental stress…
On top of that, Scott wants us to believe that the IDF (or Hamas?!) ran a precise census in the middle of the war, going door to door (when they could find one!) in square miles after square miles of rubble or refugee camps…or maybe the IDF temporarily reprogrammed their targeting AI systems to track the count of fresh <1-year-babies popping around vs all the corpses lying around (most of them under the rubble).
Scott, if your figures are so precise, can you tell us then exactly how many died (a figure the world is dying to know), directly (bombed, shot, torched) and indirectly (lack of food and water, disease, lack of healthcare) from “the war”.
And even if it was the case the population somehow increased, hasn’t Israel’s population increased as well during the same period of “the war”? Would that also tell us anything about Hamas/Hezbollah’s efforts to follow international rules of war?
Comment #84 February 7th, 2025 at 3:11 pm
RB #82: If you read carefully, they never deny that the population has increased, only that it’s increased by 2.02%. In any case Gaza’s population is plainly within a couple percent of what it was when it launched its war on Israel—a war that, had it continued as intended, would have decreased Israel’s population by approximately 100%. Speaking of which, the fact that you consistently refuse to address the latter point, changing the subject whenever it comes up, tells me that you’re not engaging in an intellectually honest way. So, for the sake of my mental health, you’re hereby banned from this blog.
Comment #85 February 7th, 2025 at 3:19 pm
fred #83: Of course I don’t have exact figures, and I’m sure they’re hard to come by right now. But you, like RB, are ignoring the fact that the birthrate in Gaza (as in other patriarchal societies) is enormous.
Comment #86 February 7th, 2025 at 3:20 pm
Btw, that argument about some population exceeding some pre-war/massacre/calamity/genocide/.. number seems a bit pointless (at best), because it’s true about any population with a birth rate higher than its death rate… you just have to wait long enough.
The Jewish world population has now basically caught up to its pre-Holocaust number… and isn’t that a reason to celebrate the resilience of the Jewish people?
And isn’t that true about any population that survives adversity?
And, with the best living conditions in the world, all Western populations have declining numbers… yet, the earth’s population is increasing! Is that a reason to justify “great replacement” theories?
Comment #87 February 7th, 2025 at 3:36 pm
Scott #85
“But you, like RB, are ignoring the fact that the birthrate in Gaza (as in other patriarchal societies) is enormous.”
Some numbers (births/woman), to get some reference:
Niger 6.64
Afghanistan 4.3
French Guiana 3.4
Gaza 3.38 (under “normal” circumstances, for Gaza…)
Israel 2.9
Egypt 2.8
In the United States, Orthodox Jews have an average of 3.3 children, while non-Orthodox Jews have an average of 1.4 children
Finland 1.4
Comment #88 February 7th, 2025 at 3:36 pm
Fred #80,
Thank you for demonstrating my point. In reaction to the suggestion of simply asking the people of Gaza to declare themselves as refugees or @home you compare this to … the eviction of Jews from Nazi Germany. Yes, that’s precisely the kind of howl I was expecting.
Comment #89 February 7th, 2025 at 3:50 pm
There’s the death toll from the bombing, but also death toll from the more indirect effects (lack of food, water, meds, destroyed hospitals…) that dramatically increased the rate of deaths from disease, etc … which are just as intentional choices (cheap medieval siege tactics) as missile strikes but even more indiscriminate.
Those are harder to measure given the current situation (just look at trying to assess the full covid death toll in “modern” countries…)
I’ve heard total estimate of 200,000 deaths at least, that’s nearly 10% of the population.
Comment #90 February 7th, 2025 at 4:26 pm
Scott #84
“a war that, had it continued as intended, would have decreased Israel’s population by approximately 100%.”
That’s true, and that’s the hard problem Western societies have had to reckon with since 911.
We live in a world where a well funded small cell of “death to America!” jihadists could wipe out millions of Americans if they ever manage to procure a tactical nuke on the black market (that was a real fear after the collapse of the USSR).
On the other hand, it’s not like the US is blowing to smithereen every single exalted “Death to America!” shouting protesters in some demonstration in the streets of Theran (e.g. after we blew up their hero terrorist commander).
Even more to the point, Al-Qaeda killed 3,000+ Americans in NYC, the US went to war for 20 years, causing the deaths of hundreds of thousands of people to try to eradicate Al-Qaeda once and for all… yet Syria is now ruled by an ex-Al-Qaeda guy… so, yea, it’s just not as simple as killing every single people who declares that they want us dead (that’s just not practical). There’s the words, there’s the will, there’s the means, and then people sometimes can change their mind (based on our own actions), or time passes and things shift for better or worse.
Comment #91 February 7th, 2025 at 6:46 pm
Adam Treat #88
“Thank you for demonstrating my point. In reaction to the suggestion of simply asking the people of Gaza to declare themselves as refugees or @home you compare this to … the eviction of Jews from Nazi Germany. Yes, that’s precisely the kind of howl I was expecting.”
Ooooh, dang, Bro! You know me so well!
…
https://scottaaronson.blog/?p=7542#comment-1954948
“How about Saudi Arabia welcoming the entirety of the Gaza strip’s population?
They’re all Sunnis, the holy center of Islam is right there (Mecca), there’s plenty of space, and the Saudis have a GDP of nearly 1 trillion $ for a population of 32 millions…”
https://scottaaronson.blog/?p=7542#comment-1954984
“Second, I’m just being practical, nobody would be forced to move obviously.
Why aren’t all the rich Arab/Muslim countries (Qatar, the Saudis, UAE,..) giving asylum to any Palestinian who wants to get the fuck out of there and finally get a real life *now* rather than waiting another 100-200 years?”
Comment #92 February 7th, 2025 at 7:30 pm
Luckily those light-hearted Gaza discussions provide a welcome distraction from all the DOGE shit that’s going on…
Comment #93 February 7th, 2025 at 7:32 pm
RB #82 without a baseline it is difficult to gauge what sort of civilian casualties are reasonable when conducting a war. The Israeli military claims it’s killed 17 thousand combatants, this number is probably somewhat inflated, but earlier in the war they claimed they killed 10 thousand and a Hamas official admitted to losing 6 thousand fighters before being quickly recanting for obvious reasons, so I’m assuming the true number to be somewhere in the middle at about 8 thousand, and assume this inflation was maintained until now, so maybe 13.6 thousand Hamas militants killed. The total casualties I’m seeing seems to be around 47 thousand total killed in palestine, for a ratio of ~3.5 killed per combatant. Comparing this with the Iraq war figures I see in wikipedia a ratio of something like 1.5-3.2 (there seems to be some huge uncertainty, just as in this case). So this looks to be on the large side of civilian casualties, but not as high as I would expect from complete indifference to civilian lives. Hamas has an extensively documented use of civilian human shields, and I can’t think of any recent conflict by a western democracy against an enemy that engages in similar tactics in order to make a better comparison, but feel free to improve on these numbers.
Comment #94 February 7th, 2025 at 9:46 pm
I’ve never believed in blaming the voters for bad election outcomes. If the Democrats failed to beat a candidate as bad as Trump, the Democrats themselves must have been truly terrible. And they were!
As for Trump’s middle east policy, well yes, some people voted for him hoping or expecting it to be better than Biden’s. That is, they rejected a known bad option for an unknown roll of the dice. Trump could have been good, medium, bad (like Biden), or even worse. They got “even worse”, but as they weren’t idiots going in, I can’t say they made an irrational choice.
I think in statistics that’s called an optimal stopping problem, but it’s just like any other gamble that might or might not come out the way the bettor hoped. Don’t forget Arafat and Abbas rejecting statehood plans that were much better than the pre-Oct 7 status quo.
Comment #95 February 7th, 2025 at 10:57 pm
@Scott thank you for these posts. I believe that despite the obviousness of it all, we must still keep pointing it out every time. To make sure that that the reality remains common knowledge — that the emperor is indeed naked.
Comment #96 February 8th, 2025 at 9:18 am
Scott #81:
> As for 972mag, it has as much moral credibility with mainstream Jews and Israelis as the Neturei Karta, showing up to Iran’s Holocaust denial conference with their black hats and beards.
I don’t know about the stats on that, I can see in wikipedia that its intended audience is not exactly Israelis and mostly international, and about 20% of its readers are Israelis. But regarding the most important reporting it has made during the war, whether it was the (recorded) gang-rape (to death) and torture stories in Sde Teiman, or the AI machine used to designate targets without any care for proportionality of target importance and potential collateral damage, they came out to be true and verified by other mainstream medias such as The Guardian.
I wouldn’t be surprised if they had made a mistake, it’s a war and it’s messy, but overall, like I said, their most important reporting on the war crimes were true.
fred #90:
My first comment here wasn’t published, I guess (I may be wrong) because it went over the line as I made an analogy to a Hitler-like figure emerging and starting a second genocide against the Jews, and how we would deal with it.
My point there was that the whole discussion about population increasing or decreasing is useless and not sth that can be used to refute/prove a genocide. Genocide doesn’t have population statistics in its definition, because a genocidal entity may fall short, very much short, of its final solution goals, and it would be insane for us to say that this should make the courts stop declaring it a genocide just because it hasn’t managed to thin out the target population yet.
Furthermore, this kind of conversation, willingly or not, fuels into the perception of Palestinians viewed as cattle and animals, that so long as their numbers are good and increasing, then they are not an endangered species and that’s all that matters.
asdf #94:
I also replied to the third point by Scott, but from a different more practical perspective: that for NOW, things are much better than it was during Biden, and by all accounts, mainstream and otherwise, it was Trump and Trump’s envoy who put significant pressure on the PM to get the ceasefire accepted by both sides.
Whether Trump’s (or rather Kushner’s, according to TOI and WSJ) cleansing plan gets carried out is yet to be seen, but even Scott himself doubts that very much (in his 1. and 2. points). So, so far, even Scott himself should see that those voters still feel pretty comfortable with their vote overall, and for good reasons.
Comment #97 February 8th, 2025 at 8:04 pm
What is your take on Curtis Yarvin’s commentary?
https://graymirror.substack.com/p/gaza-inc
https://graymirror.substack.com/p/clearpill-yourself-on-gaza
Comment #98 February 8th, 2025 at 9:22 pm
Anonymous #97
> https://graymirror.substack.com/p/clearpill-yourself-on-gaza
Matthew Yglesias made similar points in a more… standard style:
https://www.slowboring.com/p/palestinian-right-of-return-matters
Comment #99 February 15th, 2025 at 6:14 am
I think Trumpism has its roots in Bushism. Lies told about your external enemies are easier to believe, but if you’re not careful then it’s a matter of time before similar methods are adopted internally. Caesar was created in Gaul.
Comment #100 February 19th, 2025 at 12:13 pm
I learned today about a new thing – inter-Jewish racism:
you’d think that’s been hallucinated by an AI
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/feb/17/miami-shooting-israeli-men