Letter to a Jewish voter in Pennsylvania
Election Day Update: For anyone who’s still undecided (?!?), I can’t beat this from Sam Harris.
When I think of Harris winning the presidency this week, it’s like watching a film of a car crash run in reverse: the windshield unshatters; stray objects and bits of metal converge; and defenseless human bodies are hurled into states of perfect repose. Normalcy descends out of chaos.
Important Announcement: I don’t in any way endorse voting for Jill Stein, or any other third-party candidate. But if you are a Green Party supporter who lives in a swing state, then please at least vote for Harris, and use SwapYourVote.org to arrange for two (!) people in safe states to vote for Jill Stein on your behalf. Thanks so much to friend-of-the-blog Linchuan Zhang for pointing me to this resource.
Added on Election Day: And, if you swing that way, click here to arrange to have your vote for Kamala in a swing state traded for two votes for libertarian candidate Chase Oliver in safe states. In any case, if you’re in a swing state and you haven’t yet voted (for Kamala Harris and for the norms of civilization), do!
For weeks I’d been wondering what I could say right before the election, at this momentous branch-point in the wavefunction, that could possibly do any good. Then, the other day, a Jewish voter in Pennsylvania and Shtetl-Optimized fan emailed me to ask my advice. He said that he’d read my Never-Trump From Here to Eternity FAQ and saw the problems with Trump’s autocratic tendencies, but that his Israeli friends and family wanted him to vote Trump anyway, believing him better on the narrow question of “Israel’s continued existence.” I started responding, and then realized that my response was the election-eve post I’d been looking for. So without further ado…
Thanks for writing. Of course this is ultimately between you and your conscience (and your empirical beliefs), but I can tell you what my Israeli-American wife and I did. We voted for Kamala, without the slightest doubt or hesitation. We’d do it again a thousand quadrillion times. We would’ve done the same in the swing state of Pennsylvania, where I grew up (actually in Bucks, one of the crucial swing counties).
And later this week, along with tens of millions of others, I’ll refresh the news with heart palpitations, looking for movement toward blue in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. I’ll be joyous and relieved if Kamala wins. I’ll be ashen-faced if she doesn’t. (Or if there’s a power struggle that makes the 2021 insurrection look like a dress rehearsal.) And I’ll bet anyone, at 100:1 odds, that at the end of my life I’ll continue to believe that voting Kamala was the right decision.
I, too, have pro-Israel friends who urged me to switch to Trump, on the ground that if Kamala wins, then (they say) the Jews of Israel are all but doomed to a second Holocaust. For, they claim, the American Hamasniks will then successfully prevail on Kamala to prevent Israel from attacking Iran’s nuclear sites, or will leave Israel to fend for itself if it does. And therefore, Iran will finish and test nuclear weapons in the next couple years, and then it will rebuild the battered Hamas and Hezbollah under its nuclear umbrella, and then it will fulfill its stated goal since 1979, of annihilating the State of Israel, by slaughtering all the Jews who aren’t able to flee. And, just to twist the knife, the UN diplomats and NGO officials and journalists and college students and Wikipedia editors who claimed such a slaughter was a paranoid fantasy, they’ll all cheer it when it happens, calling it “justice” and “resistance” and “intifada.”
And that, my friends say, will finally show me the liberal moral evolution of humanity since 1945, in which I’ve placed so much stock. “See, even while they did virtually nothing to stop the first Holocaust, the American and British cultural elites didn’t literally cheer the Holocaust as it happened. This time around, they’ll cheer.”
My friends’ argument is that, if I’m serious about “Never Again” as a moral lodestar of my life, then the one issue of Israel and Iran needs to override everything else I’ve always believed, all my moral and intellectual repugnance at Trump and everything he represents, all my knowledge of his lies, his evil, his venality, all the former generals and Republican officials who say that he’s unfit to serve and an imminent danger to the Republic. I need to vote for this madman, this pathological liar, this bullying autocrat, because at least he’ll stand between the Jewish people and the darkness that would devour them, as it devoured them in my grandparents’ time.
My friends add that it doesn’t matter that Kamala’s husband is Jewish, that she’s mouthed all the words a thousand times about Israel’s right to defend itself, that Biden and Harris have indeed continued to ship weapons to Israel with barely a wag of their fingers (even as they’ve endured vituperation over it from their left, even as Kamala might lose the whole election over it). Nor does it matter that a commanding majority of American Jews will vote for Kamala, or that … not most Israelis, but most of the Israelis in academia and tech who I know, would vote for Kamala if they could. They could all be mistaken about their own interests. But you and I, say my right-wing friends, realize that what actually matters is Iran, and what the next president will do about Iran. Trump would unshackle Israel to do whatever it takes to prevent nuclear-armed Ayatollahs. Kamala wouldn’t.
Anyway, I’ve considered this line of thinking. I reject it with extreme prejudice.
To start with the obvious, I’m not a one-issue voter. Presumably you aren’t either. Being Jewish is a fundamental part of my humanity—if I didn’t know that before I’d witnessed the world’s reaction to October 7, then I certainly know now. But only in the fantasies of antisemites would I vote entirely on the basis of “is this good for the Jews?” The parts of me that care about the peaceful transfer of power, about truth, about standing up to Putin, about the basic sanity of the Commander-in-Chief in an emergency, about climate change and green energy and manufacturing, about not destroying the US economy through idiotic tariffs, about talented foreign scientists getting green cards, about the right to abortion, about RFK and his brainworm not being placed in charge of American healthcare, even about AI safety … all those parts of me are obviously for Kamala.
More interestingly, though, the Jewish part of me is also for Kamala—if possible, even more adamantly than other parts. It’s for Kamala because…
Well, after these nine surreal years, how does one even spell out the Enlightenment case against Trump? How does one say what hasn’t already been said a trillion times? Now that the frog is thoroughly boiled, how does one remind people of the norms that used to prevail in America—even after Newt Gingrich and Sarah Palin and the rest had degraded them—and how those norms were what stood between us and savagery … and how laughably unthinkable is the whole concept of Trump as president, the instant you judge him according to those norms?
Kamala, whatever her faults, is basically a normal politician. She lies, but only as normal politicians lie. She dodges questions, changes her stances, says different things to different audiences, but only as normal politicians do. Trump is something else entirely. He’s one of the great flimflam artists of human history. He believes (though “belief” isn’t quite the right word) that truth is not something external to himself, but something he creates by speaking it. He is the ultimate postmodernist. He’s effectively created a new religion, one of grievance and lies and vengeance against outsiders, and converted a quarter of Americans to his religion, while another quarter might vote it into power because of what they think is in it for them.
And this cult of lies … this is what you ask if Jewish people should enter into a strategic alliance with? Do you imagine this cult is a trustworthy partner, one likely to keep its promises?
For centuries, Jews have done consistently well under cosmopolitan liberal democracies, and consistently poorly—when they remained alive at all—under nativist tyrants. Do you expect whatever autocratic regime follows Trump, a regime of JD Vance and Tucker Carlson and the like, to be the first exception to this pattern in history?
For I take it as obvious that a second Trump term, and whatever follows it, will make the first Trump term look like a mere practice run, a Beer Hall Putsch. Trump I was restrained by John Kelly, by thousands of civil service bureaucrats and judges, by the generals, and in the last instance, by Mike Pence. But Trump II will be out for the blood of his enemies—he says so himself at his rallies—and will have nothing to restrain him, not even any threat of criminal prosecution. Do you imagine this goes well for the Jews, or for pretty much anyone?
It doesn’t matter if Trump has no personal animus against Jews—excepting, of course, the majority who vote against him. Did the idealistic Marxist intellectuals of Russia in 1917 want Stalin? Did the idealistic Iranian students of Iran in 1979 want Khomeini? It doesn’t matter: what matters is what they enabled. Turn over the rock of civilization, and everything that was wriggling underneath is suddenly loosed on the world.
How much time have you spent looking at pro-Israel people on Twitter (Hen Mazzig, Haviv Rettig Gur, etc.), and then—crucially—reading their replies? I spend at least an hour or two per day on that, angry and depressed though it makes me, perhaps because of an instinct to stare into the heart of darkness, not to look away from a genocidal evil arrayed against my family.
Many replies are the usual: “Shut the fuck up, Zio, and stop murdering babies.” “Two-state solution? I have a different solution: that all you land-thieves pack your bags and go back to Poland.” But then, every time, you reach tweets like “you Jews have been hated and expelled from all the world’s countries for thousands of years, yet you never consider that the common factor is you.” “Your Talmud commands you to kill goyim children, so that’s why you’re doing it.” “Even while you maintain apartheid in Palestine, you cynically import millions of third-world savages to White countries, in order to destroy them.” None of this is the way leftists talk, not even the most crazed leftists. We’ve now gone all the way around the horseshoe. Or, we might say, we’re no longer selecting on the left or right of politics at all, but simply on the bottom.
And then you see that these bottom-feeders often have millions of followers each. They command armies. The bottom-feeders—left, right, Islamic fundamentalist, and unclassifiably paranoid—are emboldened as never before. They’re united by a common enemy, which turns out to be the same enemy they’ve always had.
Which brings us to Elon Musk. I personally believe that Musk, like Trump, has nothing against the Jews, and is if anything a philosemite. But it’s no longer a question of feelings. Through his changes to Twitter, Musk has helped his new ally Trump flip over the boulder, and now all the demons that were wriggling beneath are loosed on civilization.
Should we, as Jews, tolerate the demons in exchange for Trump’s tough-guy act on Iran? Just like the evangelicals previously turned a blind eye to Trump’s philandering, his sexual assaults, his gleeful cruelty, his spitting on everything Christianity was ever supposed to stand for, simply because he promised them the Supreme Court justices to overturn Roe v. Wade? Faced with a man who’s never had a human relationship in his life that wasn’t entirely transactional, should we be transactional ourselves?
I’m not convinced that even if we did, we’d be getting a good bargain. Iran is no longer alone, but part of an axis that includes China, Russia, and North Korea. These countries prop up each other’s economies and militaries; they survive only because of each other. As others have pointed out, the new Axis is actually more tightly integrated than the Axis powers ever were in WWII. The new Axis has already invaded Ukraine and perhaps soon Taiwan and South Korea. It credibly threatens to end the Pax Americana. And to face Hamas or Hezbollah is to face Iran is to face the entire new Axis.
Now Kamala is not Winston Churchill. But at least she doesn’t consider the tyrants of Russia, China, and North Korea to be her personal friends, trustworthy because they flatter her. At least she, unlike Trump, realizes that the current governments of China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran do indeed form a new axis of evil, and she has the glimmers of consciousness that the founders of the United States stood for something different from what those tyrannies stand for, and that this other thing that our founders stood for was good. If war does come, at least she’ll listen to the advice of generals, rather than clowns and lackeys. And if Israel or America do end up in wars of survival, from the bottom of my heart she’s the one I’d rather have in charge. For if she’s in charge, then through her, the government of the United States is still in charge. Our ripped and tattered flag yet waves. If Trump is in charge, who or what is at the wheel besides his own unhinged will, or that of whichever sordid fellow-gangster currently has his ear?
So, yes, as a human being and also as a Jew, this is why I voted early for Kamala, and why I hope you’ll vote for her too. If you disagree with her policies, start fighting those policies once she’s inaugurated on January 20, 2025. At least there will still be a republic, with damaged but functioning error-correcting machinery, in which you can fight.
All the best,
Scott
More Resources: Be sure to check out Scott Alexander’s election-eve post, which (just like in 2016) endorses any listed candidate other than Trump, but specifically makes the case to voters put off (as Scott is) by Democrats’ wokeness. Also check out Garry Kasparov’s epic tweet-thread on why he supports Kamala, and his essay The United States Cannot Descend Into Authoritarianism.
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Comment #1 November 3rd, 2024 at 11:35 pm
Scott wrote: “None of this is the way leftists talk, not even the most crazed leftists. ”
None of that *used to be* the way leftists spoke, and yes, not everyone in those tweets is a leftist, but I do think something has changed in the way leftists talk and behave. They didn’t used to say stuff like “colonizers deserve to die,” “globalize the intifada” and so on. This change is real and I don’t think it suddenly means we call them “bottomists” as opposed to leftists.
This is an oversimplification, but in the 1950s, leftist movements focused on things like labor rights, trade unions, anarchy, and communism. But this suddenly changed when Che and his ilk added a militant revolutionary ideology to leftism. I think there’s some parallel there to the change happening on the left today: they’ve become more militant. Resistance is justified, intifada, globalize the jihad, etc.
I think many of the people who tweet those things would also consider themselves antiracist, gender-fluid leftists.
Somewhat relatedly, The Free Press hosted a debate between Jewish pro-Trump and pro-Kalama voters in Pennsylvania, where they discuss their rationales for choosing candidates. Worth a watch/skim: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X1JJzLkjUfc
My takeaway: 6 jews, 12 opinions.
Comment #2 November 4th, 2024 at 12:51 am
Hi Scott.
I voted by mail for Harris about a week ago. It will not make a difference, since I live in a deep blue state.
I just wanted to say that I agree with what you wrote 100%.
If you want a nice summary of (some) of what was said a trillion times already, I would recommend reading (and adding a link to) Bret Devereaux’s election post: https://acoup.blog/2024/10/25/new-acquisitions-1933-and-the-definition-of-fascism/.
I would also like to add that American democracy is already critically ill. It is simply not healthy for a country to always be one election away from dictatorship. America needs both major parties to be sane and reasonable, but the last presidential election where this was even remotely the case was 2012. Even if Harris wins, I don’t think that a national healing process will take place, much as it didn’t take place during the Biden presidency.
Also, do you have any contingency plans in case Harris loses the election, or advice for others who are thinking of setting up such a plan?
Comment #3 November 4th, 2024 at 2:50 am
Or, as I would phrase it somewhat more crassly in short, perhaps Trump might be better for Israel in the short run, but you have to consider what comes after him. There’s every reason to expect the far right, including the anti-Semites, to capture his presidency. Sooner then even he’d expect. The second Holocaust is far more likely to come after Trump than after Harris.
Comment #4 November 4th, 2024 at 6:09 am
I wonder about the part highly educated and patriotic editors and producers of mass media had played in making American democracy tick. And how it will adapt to social networks with their echo chambers and partisanship. So far not so good it seems. You have Trump.
Comment #5 November 4th, 2024 at 7:04 am
I think there is something important missing from this post, namely: *Even if* you are a single-issue Iran voter, Trump is a bad, even disastrous choice. If Trump is elected, it becomes more, not less, likely that Iran will develop a nuclear weapon.
Why do I say that? The central point is that Trump is incompetent at statecraft. Of course, Trump will loudly tell you that he is the most amazing ever at diplomacy, but like everything else he says, this is an outright lie. His incompetence is clear from his record, and he has a record specifically on Iran. When he took office, he proclaimed loudly that the deal Obama had reached with Iran on nuclear weapons was a horrible deal and that he would abandon it and get a much better one. He did abandon it but he did not get any new deal at all. Those last two sentences are facts that are easy to check.
Now, one can have different opinions about the quality of Obama’s deal. Personally, I think it was a good one: Iran had to give up nuclear weapon development and there were inspections to ensure that, and in return we ended sanctions. Now we have sanctions but no inspections and nothing really to stop Iran from developing a nuclear weapon. But the point is that Trump clearly did *not* deliver on his promise or his claim.
Also, on the use of force: Trump likes to talk loudly and threaten but doesn’t actually like to use the military. (This is separate from his belief that soldiers are suckers and fools.) Personally, I think the reluctance to use force is the only point in his favor, but he consistently backs down from actual military force. This was evident in his confrontation with Iran, where he escalated substantially and then backed off of further confrontation. (Again, I thought the backing off was a good thing, but the escalation was not helpful and whatever deterrence effect it was supposed to have was seriously undermined by backing off later.) He also is the one who negotiated the withdrawal from Afghanistan, but was not brave enough to actually go through with it himself: He left it for Biden to actually do it.
Then, finally, there is the point you noted about how Trump makes friends with any dictator who bothers to flatter him. Iran’s leaders have not done so so far, but if they actually want something from him, the option is open to them. Trump certainly has no compunction about embracing former enemies provided they change their rhetoric and suck up to him instead (witness A: JD Vance). So if Iran decide it wants to develop a nuclear weapon, all they have to do to get the US out of the way is start saying nice things about Trump personally, and he will give them whatever they want, as he did with North Korea.
Comment #6 November 4th, 2024 at 9:01 am
Very well said Scott. Heartfelt and thoughtful as always. The idea that Trump cares one whit for Israel is laughable. He’ll turn on Israel the nanosecond he thinks it is in his best interests. And he’s friends with Putin who is friends with Iran and he is friends with North Korea. All Iran has to do is flatter him in the right way. The writing is so clearly on the wall. I beg people not to be willing fools in this clown’s circus. He’s venal through and through. You can’t trust someone so venal with something so existential.
Comment #7 November 4th, 2024 at 9:03 am
Your analysis assumes that candidates’ policy depends in some way on their ideology. This hasn’t been the case anywhere for a while now. Policy only depends on how many votes it will get them.
Comment #8 November 4th, 2024 at 9:52 am
“I spend at least an hour or two per day on that, angry and depressed though it makes me…”
As a fellow STEM professor who used to have a similar addiction – just stop. You’ll surely think of a lot of reasons not to stop, but that’s how addiction works. Ignore them. You’ll enjoy life more.
Comment #9 November 4th, 2024 at 9:55 am
Although I applaud your thoughtful response to this Jewish voter, the more that I have thought about it, the more upset it has made me. That an American Jew would seriously consider voting for a candidate that promises to establish an autocratic authoritarian regime and possible destroy our democracy because it might, possibly, be better for Israel, seems, in your words, to confirm the worst “fantasies of anti-Semites”. I well know that most Jews, and certainly the ones in my circle, have always provided strong support for liberal democracy. But your post frightens me. Is there really a significant block of Jewish voters that agree with your letter writer? If so, that is very disturbing.
Comment #10 November 4th, 2024 at 10:00 am
Here are some basic facts:
(1) Non-US NATO defense spending rose sharply following Trump’s election.
(2) Putin invaded Ukraine in 2014, when Obama was president, and again in 2022, when Biden was president. Putin did not invade Ukraine when Trump was president.
(3) Iran’s GDP more than doubled during Biden’s term.
(4) The Abraham Accords took place under Trump; October 7 took place under Biden.
Would you agree that these facts – in themselves, regardless of any other relevant facts – strongly suggest that the Trump administration was much better than the Biden administration in dealing with the axis of evil?
Comment #11 November 4th, 2024 at 11:01 am
Here are some basic facts about the price of tea in China:
(1) During Donald Trump’s presidency (January 2017 to January 2021), China’s tea industry experienced notable growth in both production and pricing.
(2) During President Joe Biden’s tenure, China’s tea industry has experienced fluctuations in production and pricing.
(3) A robust tea production industry in China is objectively good for China.
(4) China is the strongest member of the “axis of evil” in terms of economic and military might.
Would you agree that these facts – in themselves, regardless of any other relevant facts – strongly suggest that the Trump administration was much worse than the Biden administration in dealing with the axis of evil?
Comment #12 November 4th, 2024 at 11:05 am
To Vladimir #10:
1. Non-US NATO defense spending rose due to a 2014 (Obama) agreement requiring defense spending for NATO member of 2% of GDP.
2. Putin invaded Georgia in 2008 (Bush Jr.). 9/11 (Bush Jr.). Sadam invaded Kuwait in 1991 (Bush Sr.). And if we are blaming Presidents for everything that happens on their watch, we had Covid during Trump watch and according to Trump’s logic of blaming China for the virus, it is his fault for not preventing them from doing it.
3. Iran’s GDP greatly fluctuates due to currency rates. In 2020 Iran’s GDP took a dip due to Covid, or maybe we should credit Trump with spreading a pandemic in Iran? Since then, Iran’s GDP somewhat recovered, but it is still not back to 2016 (Obama) levels. More importantly, look at Iran’s uranium stockpile. It was essentially zero when Trump took office and rose above 2000 Kg. In this case this rise is directly due to Trump’s actions.
4. Abraham Accords were a positive direction, but Emirates and Bahrain are not Israel’s real enemies. Actual important peace agreement where signed with Egypt in 1977 (Carter) and Jordan in 1994 (Clinton). I agree that the Democratic party does not really deserve credit for these peace agreement, but you are the one who started this silly game.
October 7 was a result of Israel pampering the Hamas is Gaza since 2006. Netanyahu and the Israeli extreme right considered the Hamas as an asset since it helped weaken the Palestinian Authority. Well, they got their ROI on October 7.
Comment #13 November 4th, 2024 at 11:08 am
I’m really confused. Is it the case that (1) there are Jewish voters who will vote for Trump as they believe Kamala doesn’t support Israel enough and (2) there are (mostly non-Jewish) voters who won’t vote for Kamala because they believe Kamala supports Israel too much. Here “supporting Israel” is in the specific sense of “supporting Israel’s current military actions”, rather than some broader sense. Isn’t there some kind of basic contradiction there or am I totally misunderstanding?
Comment #14 November 4th, 2024 at 12:30 pm
Adam Treat #11
I’d say these facts weakly suggest that the Trump administration was very slightly worse than the Biden administration in dealing with the axis of evil.
Udi #12
(1) Here are plots showing non-US NATO’s total defense expenditure growth and the growth of major hardware purchases: https://imgur.com/a/jdUTcFS. If, having seen these plots, you maintain that Trump’s election did not have a large positive effect on NATO, we have no basis for a rational discussion.
(2) Trump is hardly a continuation of the Bush line, while the Obama –> Biden –> Harris line couldn’t be clearer.
(3) And what determines currency rates? Are you claiming that Iran’s GDP more than halving between 2016 and 2020 and then more than doubling between 2020 and today is the result of unknowable random fluctuations?
(4) Bibi’s share of the blame isn’t the topic under discussion; regardless of what he did or did not do, the likelihood of October 7th taking place was certainly strongly affected by the identity and policies of the US president.
(Incidentally, Jordan wasn’t Israel’s enemy since 1967.)
Comment #15 November 4th, 2024 at 1:37 pm
Vladimir #10:
> (2) Putin invaded Ukraine in 2014, when Obama was president, and again in 2022, when Biden was president. Putin did not invade Ukraine when Trump was president.
This is a perfect example of tyrant’s message that reads “accept my apprentice as a ruler or I will cause you suffering”. There are tons of such examples in history. Even on a very small scale mafia type people use that to gain power and influence in their local vicinity.
The thing is, on a large scale this message works very well against simply-minded people. They see that life is getting worse under a specific president – so they vote against him. They don’t care about the actual root cause.
This is why USA democrats afraid to act in this already started WWIII. They think that voters will vote against that.
Comment #16 November 4th, 2024 at 2:18 pm
Vladimir #10, regarding your item (2), the other Vladimir was getting pretty much what he wanted during the Trump era anyway, so he had no need to expedite his long-term plans at that time. There is a saying that when your opponent about to shoot on his own leg, the very worst mistake would be to interfere him from doing so.
The greatest obstacle on the path of mr. Putin’s ambitions is unity of the West, and sheer power of the US. If John Bolton was correct in his estimate that Mr. Trump would really withdraw US from Nato in his second term, that would have been such a great prize that it’s worth waiting for a while and not scaring his prey in the mean time. Matters turned differently, however, when the Congress took action to make withdrawal from Nato more difficult. Additionally, mr. Trump is such a divisive force that he has reduced international credibility of the US a lot. Heck, the country appears to be on a verge of a civil war, caused to not an insignificant extent by his persistent and tireless claims of election fraud.
A somewhat analogous character in history would have been Vladimir Lenin, whom the imperial Germany helped to travel to Russia in 1917, in hopes that he would foment a revolution there and help Germany win the WW1.
Comment #17 November 4th, 2024 at 2:42 pm
Danylo Yakymenko #15, Mikko Kiviranta #16 and everyone else:
I’m perfectly willing to discuss your reasons for believing that the straightforward interpretation of the facts I’ve laid out in #10 is incorrect, provided you first acknowledge that “Trump did good for world peace” *is* the straightforward, a-priori likely interpretation.
Comment #18 November 4th, 2024 at 2:44 pm
Vladimir #14, re:major hardware purchases: https://imgur.com/a/jdUTcFS. What really strikes eye is how large a positive effect _Biden_ getting elected had on Nato! Three times the largest growth percentage points of the Trump era.
Comment #19 November 4th, 2024 at 4:55 pm
AF #2:
Also, do you have any contingency plans in case Harris loses the election, or advice for others who are thinking of setting up such a plan?
Honestly? Not yet. I have no plans to leave this country. And I’m not expecting a civil war to break out this week, though the very fact that I have to consider the question is a sign of how far we’ve fallen. And I expect that I’d survive a second Trump term as I survived the first, although it would suck for me, America, and the world.
Having said all that, I’m lucky that my family would have the option to get out if the US ever become unlivable. There’s of course Israel, where my wife and kids are citizens and where I could invoke the Law of Return, but probably other countries would take us as well.
Comment #20 November 4th, 2024 at 4:56 pm
Ivo #3:
Or, as I would phrase it somewhat more crassly in short, perhaps Trump might be better for Israel in the short run, but you have to consider what comes after him. There’s every reason to expect the far right, including the anti-Semites, to capture his presidency. Sooner then even he’d expect. The second Holocaust is far more likely to come after Trump than after Harris.
Well put.
Comment #21 November 4th, 2024 at 5:04 pm
Daniel Gottesman #5:
If Trump is elected, it becomes more, not less, likely that Iran will develop a nuclear weapon.
I think there’s an excellent chance that’s true. But I’m not certain it’s true, and my argument doesn’t stand or fall on its truth. There are many, many paths by which Trump’s instability could destabilize the world (and incidentally, cause a catastrophe for Israel), and blustering ineffectually while Iran completes its nuclear weapons is merely one of them.
As for the JCPOA, I still don’t know if it was good or bad. It does seem to have temporarily stopped Iran from progressing toward a nuclear weapon, but it also flooded Iran with cash that it used to fund Hamas and Hezbollah to launch their current war on Israel, and of course Iran resumed the nuclear weapons work anyway as soon as Trump pulled out.
Maybe the JCPOA was sort of like COVID lockdowns: there’s an argument to go big and commit, and there’s an argument not do it at all, but if you do it half-assedly like the US did, starting and then reneging on it, you get the worst of all worlds, all of the costs and none of the benefits.
Comment #22 November 4th, 2024 at 5:09 pm
David #9:
Is there really a significant block of Jewish voters that agree with your letter writer? If so, that is very disturbing.
Well, you can look at poll data! I’m seeing 68-25 for Harris over Trump among Jewish-American voters. This would mean that
(1) the Democrats’ historically massive advantage among Jews has indeed eroded a bit (unsurprising in a year when a large fraction of American left has called for global intifada?), but
(2) the Democratic lean has remained close to the largest of any religious group.
Comment #23 November 4th, 2024 at 5:13 pm
matt #13:
I’m really confused. Is it the case that (1) there are Jewish voters who will vote for Trump as they believe Kamala doesn’t support Israel enough and (2) there are (mostly non-Jewish) voters who won’t vote for Kamala because they believe Kamala supports Israel too much.
Yes, that is precisely the case! And yes, it’s weird and ironic.
The resolution of the apparent paradox is that the anti-Israel people who are voting for Trump, or more likely just staying home, are doing so despite their knowledge that Trump will be even friendlier to the current Israeli government than Kamala, and even colder to their goal of ending US support for Israel. They’re doing this because, in their moral theology, the need to punish Kamala (and Biden) for their support of what they consider “genocide” overrides every other concern—even if it leads to what they regard as a much worse outcome in the actual world.
Does that make any moral or game-theoretic sense? That question would probably be better directed at them than at me! 😀
Comment #24 November 4th, 2024 at 5:35 pm
I’m puzzled as to what the Biden administration should have done differently from the perspective of Israelis or American Jews. Harris has lost the Arab-American vote because Biden is seen to have bent over backwards to accommodate Israel. She has also not given any indications of pursuing a different course. Is it the fact that the Trump ‘deal of the century’ foreclosed any possibility of a viable Palestinian state and expectations are for more of the same?
On another note, the Smoot-Hawley tariffs of 1930 were perhaps not the best of historical moves. Let’s hope that history does not even rhyme. But based on the betting markets, one has to be prepared for the worst.
Comment #25 November 4th, 2024 at 5:50 pm
Scott #23,
From what I can tell, from the Arab perspective, the sentiment appears to be that they don’t see a difference on the ground between the Dem and Trump positions. And therefore, they don’t see a benefit in supporting the Dems. For example .
Comment #26 November 4th, 2024 at 5:51 pm
What do you think of Tulsi Gabbard, RFK, and other former progressive liberals changing sides to join the Trump team?
Comment #27 November 4th, 2024 at 6:40 pm
I have so much confidence in Lichtman’s keys to the White House model which predicts Kamala winning that I am not even going to bother to vote, even though my rabbi told me to vote for Trump.
Comment #28 November 4th, 2024 at 6:43 pm
Fully agree with your endorsement of Kamala, even though I qualify as one of those leftists (wrt foreign policy) who disagrees with her in some ways.
My one nit is that I believe Elon Musk truly is an antisemite. Consider e.g. this tweet of his https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1724908287471272299 where he agrees with a poster claiming that Jews have been “pushing […] dialectical hatred against whites”. Yes, it is true that he apologized, visited Auschwitz, met with Ben Shapiro, etc. afterwards. But to me it is obviously the case that he did all of this due to backlash, and not out of moral contrition.
A few months later, in reply to a tweet (now deleted) explaining Jewish success with Jewish IQ, he wrote (https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1772728262860402889) “Smart for humans, at least. We will all be dumber than a house cat compared to AI, if that’s any consolation.” This isn’t the kind of attitude that strikes me as philosemitic. Rather, it seems like a man uncomfortable with Jewish success and trying to minimize it.
This is not to mention all his suspect tweets regarding other racial groups, his association online with racists and ‘race realists’, and all of the conspiracies he buys into. If we lived in an era and place where it were more acceptable to be openly racist, I have no doubt that Elon would be openly supporting actual white supremacy.
I once supported technocracy, laissez-faire capitalism, and free speech sans moderation online. Elon Musk has singlehandedly made me reconsider all of those views. I will take Bernie Sanders any day if this is the alternative. My one consolation is that his ownership of Twitter has been so self-evidently disastrous that it completely destroys Curtis Yarvin’s theory that rule by a monarch-CEO would be an improvement over liberal democracy, and hopefully topples the rest of his odious philosophy with it.
Comment #29 November 4th, 2024 at 7:52 pm
Matt #13, Scott #23:
I do not personally agree with the perspective of pro-Palestinian abstainers, but I understand the position. If everyone follows the strategy “Vote for ‘my side’ no matter what”, then the only people deciding the election are openly undecided centrists, whose vote the candidates then vie to capture by moderating their platforms. This is the kind of behavior predicted by the median voter theorem. The problem is that staunch leftists and rightists then have no influence on their candidates’ platforms. These partisans are taken for granted by their respective parties, with the reasoning that even if parties do nothing special for them, these partisans would never dare to vote for the opposing party which flies in the face of everything they stand for. The only way, then, for leftists to get Democrats to change policies in their desired direction is to threaten to withhold their votes. Many people will call their bluff, saying it is not a credible threat because they would be directly voting against their own interests. The only way for leftists to make it credible is to follow through and abstain from voting en masse (despite any short-term harms incurred)! This demonstrates that they are ‘irrational’ enough that Democrats must listen to them in the future to get their votes.
It reminds me somewhat of a passage from Dawkins’ ‘Selfish Gene’, where he talks about how it may be rational for a chick to scream to attract predators, as this may cause the parent to feed the chick excess food to get it to stop screaming. He says he doubts this strategy would evolve as the gain does not seem greater than the expected cost (the cost must be high, or else parents would be selected for ignoring the scream). I personally think this transfers over to the electoral setting.
There are a few additional wrinkles in this particular case. Some of the people abstaining or voting for Trump are Muslims who were culturally conservative to start with. They voted for Bush in 2000, switched to voting for Democrats due to GWOT and Islamophobia, and have become increasingly alienated from the Democratic party in recent years over LGBT issues. For such people, Gaza was the last straw that gave them an excuse to vote Trump. If it weren’t this, it would likely be something else. In addition, many Arab Americans in the US are Christian. They are also often pro-Palestine and culturally conservative, but have less to fear from a potential Trump presidency and so would be even more likely to vote Republican.
Comment #30 November 4th, 2024 at 9:34 pm
Plague Fodder #26:
What do you think of Tulsi Gabbard, RFK, and other former progressive liberals changing sides to join the Trump team?
Ugh.
Comment #31 November 4th, 2024 at 9:58 pm
Hi Scott,
Always read your blog for the joy of science and the commentary on politics, which I invariably find thought provoking, morally clear, and helpful.
I’m an Iranian-born scientist. I was blessed with parents that taught me about the holocaust as a teenager (not a given where I grew up), and it had a deep influence on me, growing up within the belly of another authoritarian regime, which as horrible as it was/increasingly is, was never close to the Nazis in its brutality. I visited Auschwitz as one of my first independent trips. I can only imagine the effect of such event on many generations of a people.
One thing that bothers me about this whole debate of Trump’s relationship to jews, is that when people draw lines between Trump and fascism, a common counter is that there are jews within his circle (e.g. Stephen Miller, Jared Kushner etc). There were jews at the MSG, therefore it can’t be a neo-nazi rally. Ok sure, but conceptually, there is so much in that playbook that is similar.
To me, the history of holocaust is a bitter lesson of what can happen (at the extreme) when people like Trump, Miller, Bannon, and the like are unchecked. Now, I grant they might not be as capable or ideologically motivated, but rather self-interested (but I don’t want to test if it’s true). Whether in this particular instantiation of demagoguery and nationalism the temperature goes up to 200 or 120 or the target minority will be jews/arabs is important but secondary. If I was to guess it will be a different slice of people (in addition to Women and LGBTQ+), e.g. people from the Middle East, Africa, China, Caribbeans or Latinos are pretty high up on the candidates list. Nonetheless, it is clear Trump’s people are capable and willing to do a lot of irreparable harm to minorities and if we learned anything from the past we should stop it now and not wait to find out. I remember you stood up tall during the muslim ban in defense of your Iranian student. I’m always grateful for what you did then, and I think you are right about Trump this time too.
To me, a piece of never again is to not allow the machinery of scapegoating minorities grow to a point of unchecked power. Trump is a clear case of riding that playbook, aiming for unchecked power, and he is terrifyingly close in the most powerful nation in the history of humanity. I am scared of speaking up even now, because I genuinely cannot bring myself to believe that a Trump admin (with presidential immunity!) is completely above targeting people like us. The tools available today to a rouge US president is incomparable to despots 70 years ago.
Finally, stating that I believe in the right of Israel to exist in peace, I do think a nuclear-armed Iran is in no small part Trump’s doing. While JPCOA was uncomfortable to tolerate for most Israelis I know, I think it was an effective multi-year barrier between Iran and the bomb. People overestimate the effectiveness of sanctions on controlling Iran’s belligerence. It really just makes Iran a client state of Russia and China, leaving the west with very few economic levers to pull. They have also for the large part helped IRGC gain power (proportionally) in Iran’s system, rather than lose it. The private sector and with it the politically resisting middle class is crushed. I genuinely hope that the Iranian regime will not choose the path of a bomb, and I’m highly doubtful Harris will allow it to test one. But an unchecked Bibi, who has for practical purposes opened a defenseless air corridor to Tehran (under Biden/Harris’s support), is probably as good as an incentive for them to rush towards a bomb as it gets.
In the longer run, It’s possible the ideological mission to destroy Israel is not going to outlast the current leader (who is 85). That’s not much of a comfort, but I wanted to finish by challenging the assumption that Trump is better for Israel. He might help splashy tactical wins in the short term (similar to how Abraham accords was “a win” but probably also motivated Sinwar’s attack), but so far as Iran is concerned, the tail risk of his presidency making things worse in the long run (vis a vis Iran-Israeli conflict) is non-negligible (For instance, an active conflict where Iranian civilians are killed can change the political landscape in Iran such that the pressure to build a bomb is increased regardless of the leader).
Fingers crossed for a good election night!
Comment #32 November 4th, 2024 at 10:20 pm
A perspective on the variety of Arab-American motivations.
Comment #33 November 4th, 2024 at 11:15 pm
I recall how before 2016 elections people stated that they emigrate to Canada or whatever they do if Trump wins. But after elections, most of it came to nothing. The point is – their talk was not serious.
Is it possible that you state what you do if Trump wins, and actually do it if he wins, so everyone knows that your talk is serious, at least?
Comment #34 November 4th, 2024 at 11:36 pm
Do you have any personal beliefs about odds of wthat happens: Harris wins, Trump wins, Harris wins but Trump disputes unsuccessfully, Harris wins but Trump disputes successfully?
Comment #35 November 4th, 2024 at 11:47 pm
Celina Summers #33:
Is it possible that you state what you do if Trump wins, and actually do it if he wins, so everyone knows that your talk is serious, at least?
If Trump wins, I commit to honoring the laws, norms, and Constitution of the United States as they existed before Trump. That means giving anyone associated with Trump only the coldest acknowledgment that the laws and norms require me to give—making clear that I regard them as gangsters, frauds, and usurpers of a 250-year tradition who will be judged as such by history.
I’m not going to commit to moving to Canada or anything of the kind, because that would just be stupid; it wouldn’t advance any worthwhile goal. Obviously I’ll do whatever it takes to protect my family. If and when we were no longer safe in the US for whatever reason, we’d move, as I said in a previous comment.
Comment #36 November 4th, 2024 at 11:57 pm
S2 #31: Thanks so much for your kind comment! One striking pattern I’ve noticed, since Oct. 7 of last year, is that Iranians have tended to show ~1000x more sympathy and understanding for Jews’ predicament than American hard-leftists have. I don’t know if it’s true (as some say) that, if a full war does soon break out between Israel and the Ayatollah regime, the majority of Iranians will be rooting for Israel. But certainly I pray for the downfall of the Ayatollah regime, and its replacement by a real democracy, even more for Iranians’ sake than for Israelis’.
Comment #37 November 5th, 2024 at 12:12 am
RB #24:
I’m puzzled as to what the Biden administration should have done differently from the perspective of Israelis or American Jews.
Unlike the right-wing Zionists, I think that Biden and Harris are friends of Israel, and I understand and appreciate that they’ve stuck their necks out and endured massive vituperation from their own side (and possibly even an electoral loss tomorrow), just because they’ve consistently affirmed the principle that Israel gets to defend its continued existence.
But if you’re asking what Israel’s supporters want them to have done differently … well for starters, they shouldn’t have pressured Israel to stay out of Rafah, something that needlessly prolonged the war and led to more death and suffering in Gaza. Sinwar, of course, turned out to be hiding in Rafah, and much of the rest of Hamas and presumably the hostages are still there.
Likewise, Biden shouldn’t have pressured Israel to avoid “escalation” with Hezbollah, or to avoid striking Iran’s oil facilities or nuclear sites. More broadly, the goals should have been deterrence and victory, rather than unilateral “de-escalation” that solves nothing and just prolongs the suffering (since Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Ayatollahs will keep escalating against Israel as long as they exist).
Comment #38 November 5th, 2024 at 12:14 am
Craig #34:
Do you have any personal beliefs about odds of wthat happens: Harris wins, Trump wins, Harris wins but Trump disputes unsuccessfully, Harris wins but Trump disputes successfully?
I can’t improve over Nate Silver, and he says it’s a tossup.
I don’t know the chances of a disputed election, possibly with violence that makes 2021 look like a cakewalk, but certainly I’m worried about it.
Comment #39 November 5th, 2024 at 12:43 am
Vladimir #14:
> (1) Here are plots showing non-US NATO’s total defense expenditure growth and the growth of major hardware purchases: https://imgur.com/a/jdUTcFS. If, having seen these plots, you maintain that Trump’s election did not have a large positive effect on NATO, we have no basis for a rational discussion.
Trump became president in 2017. The first big bump in that plot is also 2017. Considering that the 2017 budgets were made earlier, it would be irrational to credit Trump with this bump. Even the response to Putin’s invasion in the beginning of 2022 mostly shows up in this plot in 2023. Are you claiming that NATO responded to Trump faster than they did to Putin?
> (2) Trump is hardly a continuation of the Bush line, while the Obama –> Biden –> Harris line couldn’t be clearer.
You just makes these things as you go along? Vice presidents have essentially no control over policy. According to your logic, Pence would be a continuation of Trump.
> (3) And what determines currency rates? Are you claiming that Iran’s GDP more than halving between 2016 and 2020 and then more than doubling between 2020 and today is the result of unknowable random fluctuations?
I already explained that the bump in 2020 was related to Covid. You are looking at a very noisy data and then you are fixating your model on one data point from the anomalous 2020. It is like finding patterns in the clouds.
> (4) Bibi’s share of the blame isn’t the topic under discussion; regardless of what he did or did not do, the likelihood of October 7th taking place was certainly strongly affected by the identity and policies of the US president.
Which policies exactly? Hamas build up since 2006 covers 4 US presidents. The timing may have been related to normalization between Israel and other Arab countries. But you just credited this normalization to Trump. So according to you, Trump should be blamed for October 7.
> (Incidentally, Jordan wasn’t Israel’s enemy since 1967.)
The Emirates and Bahrain were never at war with Israel. Still, you claim that the Abraham Accords are an important accomplishment while the peace with Jordan is not? Do I need to remind you that Jordan actually has a long border with Israel?
I fail to understand your motives of trying to dig up false patterns to show that Trump had good foreign policies. At the end you are only fooling yourself into voting for the wrong candidate.
Comment #40 November 5th, 2024 at 3:07 am
Hi Scott, do you have some about impact of the election on the AI developments regarding scaling, safety, AGI timelines etc…
I got impression that Trump team has been infused with lot of people from e/acc community and was surprised to see Ivanka Trump tweeting about Situational Awareness from Leopold Aschenbrenner.
Do you feel confident that Kamala team team will competently navigate those issues as they might become existential during her term?
Comment #41 November 5th, 2024 at 3:19 am
As an Israeli (though an Israeli leftist), I fully agree with this position.
It is indeed true that a majority of Israelis prefer Trump, most of them genuinely thinking that Trump is “better for Israel” than Harris. Mostly because of rhetoric, and of being unsure what Harris will do when not tied to Biden. Though even the ones who think this usually have tremendous respect for what Biden did for Israel, especially coming here during the first week of the war.
I do think another reason many Israelis prefer Trump isn’t just the Iran issue though, despite what they might say. I think many view him opportunistically – he’ll let Israel do more of what it wants, which, yes, includes defending against Iran, but also includes continuing to avoid any path to a two-state solution, and includes expanding Israeli settlement activity. Some are genuinely pro-settlement, while others just think it’s necessary right now for security. And I think they are likely right, Trump might be “better” on these issues than Harris. (It’s a bit of a tossup because he doesn’t have principles, necessarily, but certainly past actions have been far more flavored towards “let Israel do whatever it wants” than not.)
So in essence, part of the reason to choose Trump over Harris, if you are voting based on the Israeli issue, also implicitly includes deciding what *you* think is better for Israels future – an unrestrained Israeli extreme-right-wing government as exists now, or some restraint imposed by the US. Personally, I think it’s troubling (not to mention shameful) that Israel *needs* that restraint, and it cuts against Israeli sovereignty. But I’d still prefer having the restraint than letting our extreme-right government continue destroying all chance at peace and destroy what remains of Israel’s reputation. (Not to mention possibly drag Israel even farther away from democracy.)
Comment #42 November 5th, 2024 at 5:22 am
Very well said,Scott.
Comment #43 November 5th, 2024 at 6:56 am
artemium #40:
Hi Scott, do you have some about impact of the election on the AI developments regarding scaling, safety, AGI timelines etc… Do you feel confident that Kamala team team will competently navigate those issues as they might become existential during her term?
Good question. I don’t feel confident that any political leader will competently navigate these issues, but I’d feel a hell of a lot better about them with Kamala than with Trump. Kamala has actually been engaged on AI policy for a few years, and clearly supports two broad principles that I also support:
(1) that given the huge national-security and other implications, we will need government involvement (and governmental competence, as with the NIST AI Safety Institute); we can’t just have a total commercial free-for-all.
(2) that, to the extent there’s a race for AI capabilities, it’s extremely important that the US and its allies win the race, and that the China / Russia / Iran / North Korea axis lose.
Trump, by contrast, I expect will simply do whatever the latest tech billionaire to flatter him wants him to do, to whatever extent AI can hold his interest at all. And he now says he wants to end the CHIPS Act, which would be a monumental gift to China.
So on this issue as on 5000 others, I come down for Kamala.
Comment #44 November 5th, 2024 at 9:16 am
Udi #39
> I fail to understand your motives of trying to dig up false patterns to show that Trump had good foreign policies. At the end you are only fooling yourself into voting for the wrong candidate.
I’m not a US citizen, and even if I were, I don’t know that my preference for Trump’s (probable) policies would suffice to override my dislike for him as person. My goal in bringing up these points was determining the extent to which Scott’s post is based on rational consideration of facts.
Edan Maor #41
> I do think another reason many Israelis prefer Trump isn’t just the Iran issue though, despite what they might say. I think many view him opportunistically – he’ll let Israel do more of what it wants, which, yes, includes defending against Iran, but also includes continuing to avoid any path to a two-state solution
A necessary condition for a two-state solution is that the Palestinians give up the hope of destroying Israel. This is far more likely to happen with Trump as president. If Kamala is elected Israel will be pressured to reverse the UNRWA decision, i.e. the biggest strategic win of the war.
Comment #45 November 5th, 2024 at 11:55 am
Thanks for this post.
In case Vladimir cares what people make of his comment, to me it read as a cherry-picked collection of post-hoc-propter-hoc fallacies, with the possible exception of NATO costs which is not a big or any concern of mine. Trump did plenty of bad things with bad motives, and was restrained by his chief of staff, several cabinet members, and generals from many others. These are documented facts. For example, he made one of his “great deals” with the Taliban without involving the Afghanistan government and with agreeing to the immediate release of thousands of Taliban criminals. He cut the number of American troops left to oversee the final withdrawal in half, against military advice. The historians I have heard from consider him the worst USA President ever, after considering all the data.
Comment #46 November 5th, 2024 at 11:57 am
Re: Vladimir #14
Regarding your point (1), I’d be careful about making such bold claims. All you seem to be proving is that you do not understand basic calculus.
Comment #47 November 5th, 2024 at 12:20 pm
Vladimir
do you have similar insights into the effect of Putin’s policies on NATOs budget and Iran+North Korea’s GDPs… lol
Comment #48 November 5th, 2024 at 12:33 pm
JimV #45
Of course those were cherry-picked facts. My point is that if you’re incapable of publicly acknowledging that the straightforward interpretation (not necessarily the correct one) of some of the things Trump did (not necessarily the most impactful) is “Trump did good”, as literally every person who responded to my comment apparently can’t, then you’re not engaged in a good faith rational discussion, and have very little chance of convincing someone who does not already agree with you.
Comment #49 November 5th, 2024 at 12:57 pm
“We’ve now gone all the way around the horseshoe. Or, we might say, we’re no longer selecting on the left or right of politics at all, but simply on the bottom.”
Yes, we do. And this is not tolerable. Always choosing between two evils and telling ourselves that the lesser evil is not evil at all prevents us from looking for better alternatives or from influencing one of the parties to mend its ways.
Comment #50 November 5th, 2024 at 2:58 pm
Vladimir #45,
So let me get this straight… your point was to test the hypothesis that commentators here are incapable of good faith rational discussion… to do so you designed an experiment where you *admittedly* introduced cherry-picked factoids and then when commentators called you out on doing so you concluded *they* are the ones incapable of good faith rational discussion?? I don’t think this means what you think it means.
Comment #51 November 5th, 2024 at 3:27 pm
I’m so freaking nervous I can hardly breathe, but I’m trying to stay positive with this election thing:
I heard from a direct source that there’s a good 50/50 chance we will never have to vote ever again, indeed that would be one major stress factor out of my life.
Comment #52 November 5th, 2024 at 3:36 pm
“In Springfield, they’re eating the dogs, the people that came in, they’re eating the cats, They’re eating the pets of the people that live there.”
It warms my heart to know that this classic will make the history books along more minor (*) things like Martin Luther King Jr.’s
“I have a dream that my four little children will one day live in a nation where they will not be judged by the color of their skin but by the content of their character”
(*) we need to cut MLK some slack because in his days people had no clue yet that diet was so important.
Comment #53 November 5th, 2024 at 7:32 pm
Vladimir #44
>A necessary condition for a two-state solution is that the Palestinians give up the hope of destroying Israel.
After all our disagreements, I must say that I 100% totally agree with you here. The tragedy of October 7 should be proof to the world that Palestinian should not have any military force. If Israel had a functioning prime minister, he would have declared that Israel supports a two state solution where the Palestinian state is demilitarized.
> This is far more likely to happen with Trump as president.
What is this statement based on? Considering Donald’s abysmal foreign policy record, I would rather take my chances with Harris.
> If Kamala is elected Israel will be pressured to reverse the UNRWA decision, i.e. the biggest strategic win of the war.
UNRWA is a train-wreck, but I don’t see how Israel’s ban on UNRWA is a strategic win. Maybe considering how disastrous the Israeli government policies led us to total stategic failures, relatively speaking, UNRWA is a big win.
Comment #54 November 5th, 2024 at 7:46 pm
I have to admit, it’s not everyday that we see Jews and Arabs finally agree on the same thing: elect Trump … unfortunately it’s very unlikely that it’s the right thing to do for both groups.
Comment #55 November 5th, 2024 at 8:22 pm
fred #54: A minority of Jews and a minority of Arabs voted for Trump.
Comment #56 November 5th, 2024 at 8:27 pm
Vladimir, having known of Trump’s behavior since the 1970’s (when he frequently made the cover of super-market tabloids for various misbehaviors) the most straightforward explanation for any possible beneficial action of his (other than to himself) is never that it was actually done by him and for the good of humanity. I would have to ignore too much history to accept that as a reasonable premise. Perpetual motion is a more reasonable hypothesis.
Comment #57 November 5th, 2024 at 9:29 pm
Scott #55
yes, yes, probably.
I’m not trying to blame this or that minority… I’m trying to cope.
The lesson for me is that, once again, the USA just doesn’t seem willing to elect a woman (unlike Pakistan or Mexico).
It’s not like Kamala is running against Mitt Romney or McCain (some normal dude), she’s actually running against the biggest sexist pig in history.
Comment #58 November 5th, 2024 at 9:39 pm
fred #57: I’m as depressed as anyone right now, but I have no idea if that’s the lesson. If Kamala had picked Josh Shapiro as her running mate, she might well have won. Or it could’ve been Jill Stein that did it, or Biden’s “garbage” comment, or Russia having called in bomb threats to urban polling places. In an election this close, just about anything can tip the scales.
Comment #59 November 5th, 2024 at 9:43 pm
Scott #58
I was expecting women vote to be a slam dunk, considering Trump’s personality and the abortion issue…
But if Trump also wins the popular vote (which seems likely at this point?!), then it doesn’t really matter, no point bickering about this or that slice of the population, or how screwed up the electoral college is, etc… America, in all its beautiful diversity, will literally get what it deserves and thinks it deserves.
Comment #60 November 5th, 2024 at 9:50 pm
Looks like dems can kiss the Senate goodbye too.
Comment #61 November 5th, 2024 at 10:25 pm
To all who are as gutted as I am tonight, remember that we must and will endure, like all our ancestors did at one point or another, and which is why we’re here today.
Comment #62 November 5th, 2024 at 10:26 pm
Udi #53
> Maybe considering how disastrous the Israeli government policies led us to total stategic failures, relatively speaking, UNRWA is a big win.
Yes, my statement was made in the context of the real world.
JimV #56
I don’t believe any politician does anything with the good of humanity as their main motivation, let alone Trump (see #44). I’m actually willing to believe that he’s a megalomaniac who cares for nothing but self-aggrandizing. It’s just that in a world where Pax Americana is a thing and everyone knows it’s a thing, a self-aggrandizing megalomaniac as US president would be naturally inclined to promote peace.
Comment #63 November 6th, 2024 at 12:32 am
During the last month, I very often had the feeling, that the world as is couldn’t get any worse. I woke up and it got worse. I’m so sorry for you, Scott, and everyone else who fought for the victory of sanity. Thanks for your efforts :). My heart goes out to you.
Comment #64 November 6th, 2024 at 4:47 am
I’m glad Trump won. He supports Israel like no other president. Won’t have to be afraid of US arms embargo or Harris caving in and appeasing the Palestinians.
The world was falling apart from Biden’s weakness in the White House, both Ukraine and Israel. I bet Trump will manage to end these wars, and maybe when he will, you’ll finally realize he was the better choice.
Here’s a question for you: If Trump manages to end these wars, will you concede and admit Trump is good and that you were wrong?
Comment #65 November 6th, 2024 at 4:52 am
With a popular vote win, I have to admit that the “blame” can’t really be pinned down on any particular group, it goes from the very top to the very bottom of society (but that’s how populists win):
This is also a huge victory for Team Elon (*), Team Joe Rogan, Team RFK, and various tech bros (the David Sacks, the Peter Thiels, and other so-called geniuses).
And the ridiculous Right-wing conspiracy that “Dems have been letting all the illegals into the South border in order to get more votes” now looks even more ridiculous in hindsight considering that Latino have also and mainly been supporting Trump in massive numbers. The Republicans may want to rethink their strategy of massive deportation.
(*) anecdotally, 6 months ago, my very best friend from engineering/polytech school (back in Europe in the early 90s) and I had a huge fallout after I dared criticize Musk for his SpaceX Moon plan and the billions of tax payer money wasted on those Spaceship failed tests… my friend told me I was just being ‘opinionated’ and was turning on Musk because of fake claims that he was getting too political on X… that was before Musk totally went for Trump. Ah well, just one more cult of personality.
Comment #66 November 6th, 2024 at 5:31 am
It’s pretty mindblowing that Dems always get the country from Republicans at the bottom of a down swing (after the financial crisis, after covid) and Republicans get it back on the upswing (after Obama and Biden fixed the mess).
Comment #67 November 6th, 2024 at 6:16 am
@Scott #58
Or maybe a lot of thoughtful people decided that discriminating against Asians at multiple top colleges, the attacks on Jewish students and the lack of consequences of those who persecuted them, destroying people’s livelihoods if they didn’t take an experimental vaccine, watching BLM’s mostly-peaceful protests and the corresponding (lack of) comeuppance relative to J6 rioters, the insistent push of DEI initiatives, lawfare against Trump and those who associate(d) with him, constant sophomoric comparisons of Trump and his supporters to Hitler/nazis, blatant disregard for illegal immigration (and the last minute turn-around on that issue by the Biden/Harris admin looking less than sincere), the chilling of free speech and attempts to normalize the idea of “hate speech”, talk of packing SCOTUS, student loan forgiveness and attempts (some successful) by the Biden/Harris admin to bypass this, normalization of transgender affirming surgery on minors (some lawfare there too), …. and those are just off the top of my head (in addition to concerns re inflation/economy).
One can talk about how picking a different running mate, or rumors of Russian interference (people want to push that narrative again?!) tipped the scales. But it seems plausible that a lot of our countrymen/women think the above things are terribly unjust and voted accordingly. One lesson might be “hey, my side should stop doing those things”.
Comment #68 November 6th, 2024 at 6:29 am
Scott #58:
Given his curent margins of victory in swing states and his edge in national pop vote, I think we can all agree at this point that it wasn’t even close.
So if we wanna look at sth we should be looking first at where the biggest .ost impactful shifts happened, and it wasn’t arabs/jews, it was specifically the much larger latino men pop with a gigantic shift from D+23 to R+8 or sth.
In any case the US pop has really made a majority decision in this election: they like what Trump is selling.
Comment #69 November 6th, 2024 at 6:52 am
TheThirstMutilator
“constant sophomoric comparisons of Trump and his supporters to Hitler/nazis”
Aren’t you aware that Trump’s very own freaking VP called him “American Hitler”?!
I’m so f’ing sick of this double standard in taking people at their own words.
On the bright side, for people like me, EVERYTHING that goes down in the next 4 years is on people like you… the rubber will hit the road and NO MORE EXCUSES. NO MORE BULLSHIT whining and blaming about inflation, immigration, trans rights, deficit, international wars, … we already had a taste of this in 2016, but ppl forget…
Comment #70 November 6th, 2024 at 7:28 am
You may find this interesting:
“Hopes for Peace – On Why a Trump Presidency might turn around the situation in the [Middle East]”
https://x.com/EinatWilf/status/1854065099222442183
Comment #71 November 6th, 2024 at 7:29 am
shtetl-fan #68: Right.
While I’m of course deeply depressed, walking around in a haze of unreality just like in 2000 and in 2016, I’m strangely less depressed than I would’ve been if the result had been close. If the result were close, I would’ve considered myself personally to blame for not having done more to make a difference—arranging vote swaps or whatever. As it is, though, it’s “merely” another cataclysm that I observe befalling the world, like a tsunami or an asteroid. The American electorate will reap the whirlwind that it voted for, is all there is to say.
Comment #72 November 6th, 2024 at 7:52 am
Scott #71
I feel exactly as you do, brother.
At least we don’t have to worry for weeks about endless lies, uprising, civil war…
But, both my father and my uncle (in their late 70s), back in Europe, feel even worse than I do, they literally feel sick.
The wave of uncertainty we got from Ukraine/Russia, the Middle-East, and Asia is now spreading even more strongly from the US, covering the world in black clouds… because let’s face it, as his supporters keep saying, no one really knows what Trump will do, not even himself, it will all depend on various short-term myopic transactions involving backstage business deals, narcissism, and threats of nuclear armageddon.
Comment #73 November 6th, 2024 at 8:54 am
Congratulations to the American people, who for the third straight election have chosen the oldest president in history! This is sure to herald a glorious future, and is certainly not in any way a potent metaphor for an empire in decline!
AF #2 asks for advice. So my suggestion to everyone is: keep your eyes open for these mass deportations. It was by far the most important issue for the Trump campaign, and he has promised to kick it off on day one — as a dictator. It is going to be destabilizing and unsafe for a lot of people. If you are an immigrant in America, you are at risk.
“Oh, no, we only want to get rid of illegals, we welcome legal immigrants!”
LOL. Sweeping deportation raids across the country are not going to be carried out with surgical precision. Given the logistical difficulties of what has been proposed, they’re going to be deputizing anyone and everyone to round up the targets. That means, for example, bozo prison guards are going to be hitting the streets and interacting with the public. And they are going to do whatever they want to whomever they want. Papers, please!
Of course, it won’t be long before political undesirables are getting sent to the camps too. Watch out!
Comment #74 November 6th, 2024 at 8:56 am
Physics student #64:
Here’s a question for you: If Trump manages to end these wars, will you concede and admit Trump is good and that you were wrong?
That depends entirely on how he “ends” them. Question for you: if Trump ends the Ukraine war by simply forcing them to surrender much of their territory to Putin, as the Western powers let Hitler chop up Czechoslovakia in 1938, will you concede Trump is bad and you were wrong?
Comment #75 November 6th, 2024 at 9:09 am
Scott #73
In a world where the elections resulted in a Democrat trifecta, when and how do you think the Russia-Ukraine war would end? I would say that there’s no realistic scenario where Ukraine would regain control of its 2021 territory (never mind Crimea, which, incidentally, is a much better analogy to the Sudetenland).
Comment #76 November 6th, 2024 at 9:46 am
Scott #73
I don’t think you’ll get a meaningful answer here, because, ironically, the area where POTUS is the most potent, international policies, is where his supporters are the most clueless… and the areas where POTUS is the less potent (the economy, the social fabric, health care … because it has to go through congress, the states, the courts, etc) is what matters the most to them and where they think he will magically fix everything.
Trump voters are already getting a sweet reward from his win – Musk’s fortune has jumped by 13B$!
Comment #77 November 6th, 2024 at 10:19 am
Amazing how the constant and relentless “stop the steal” diarrhea of lies from Trumpistan for over 4 years has suddenly vanished in a single night… those damn Democrats were so sure to win they forgot to cheat!
Comment #78 November 6th, 2024 at 10:45 am
Physics student #64, Scott #73,
Indeed, the fate of Ukraine is my biggest fear regarding Trump. If any politician resembles Hitler today, it’s not Trump, it’s Putin. His propaganda, his domestic persecutions, his invasions of neighboring countries are carbon copies of what happened 85 years before. And letting him keep much of Ukraine after a blatant invasion like this may have the effect of 1938 Munich that greenlighted WWII.
As for the domestic fears, that Trump would become a dictator, I believe that’s unfounded, for there are strong institutional safeguards against that. Persecution of political opponents? So far we’ve seen far more of that from Democrats, not Republicans. Setting the country ablaze? Again, that’s what Democrats did in 2020, in Seattle, Portland, Minneapolis, at much larger scale than Jan 6.
I think the worst domestic fears are unfounded.
Comment #79 November 6th, 2024 at 12:34 pm
It’s not like we don’t all already know exactly what a Trump presidency is like.
People have already forgotten apparently, because it was so damn painful and exhausting the first time around, for everyone, and 2020 was just too much, with covid, Trump, and a campaign, all at once (which is why he lost in 2020).
People listen to the victory speech and think that since the guy has won, he’s just gonna relax, be a uniting president, and it’s just gonna be somewhat smooth sailing…
But he will lose no time to just again focus all his f’ing energy on triggering the left and US allies internationally, and they’re all gonna be as triggered for 4 years as they were last time (btw, how is a president who manages to trigger 50% of the country that much is a good president, I ask)…
that’s simply what he does – he loves chaos and can’t help it, and it’s gonna feel like a 4 year long campaign once more, with so much noise and lies and BS, all drowning down any actual policies.
And this time you can probably expect even more internal Trumpistan drama on who will be in his closest inner circle.
Four more years of circus, people! Enjoy the calm before the storm.
Comment #80 November 6th, 2024 at 12:43 pm
As a long-time reader and first-time commenter, I give everyone a big virtual hug. I feel the sadness and despair and I know that things will suck really badly for a while.
It’s an enormous setback for democracy, for the American people and for the world, but it’s not defeat. Not yet.
I hope that you and your readers find the strength to continue creating pockets of humanity, empathy, creativity and sanity where ever you are. The world is a better place with all of you in it, and today I commit to helping hold it together for as long as I can.
Comment #81 November 6th, 2024 at 1:46 pm
To a large extent, the outcome was decided by the inflation spike that brought down more than one G7 government. While some of this was due to the supply chain issues, some of it was due to the stimulus and some others due to the associated spike in borrowing costs and perhaps other secular factors. Not all Biden’s doing. But as a result of his and the Fed’s stimulus the US did have the fastest jobs recovery and growth that other G7 countries did not. But not enough to overcome the stickiness of the consumer sentiment. Prices are not magically going to change but Republican sentiment about the economy will magically shoot up by February. Let’s see what a one-term Trump can do with perhaps 2 years of a blank-check. Whatever he does, I hope Dems don’t try to impeach him again. In any case, it appears the right has a free rein for now with control over the Presidency, the Senate, most likely the House, the Supreme Court and a majority of State governorships. I have my book-reading list ready in the meantime.
Comment #82 November 6th, 2024 at 3:25 pm
Vladimir #70:
> “Hopes for Peace – On Why a Trump Presidency might turn around the situation in the [Middle East]”
I totally agree that Palestinians must give up on their dream of “from the river to the sea” and agree to a two state solution. But a peace agreement requires two sides, and the current Israeli government totally opposes a two state solution. Actually, the Israeli government is actively working to make a two state solution impossible.
That is why I criticize Biden for not putting enough pressure on Israel to offer Palestinian hope for a better future for the two people. Trump actions were even more single sided than Biden, so I do not see how he is going to be any better. But if he manages to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in the next 4 years, I would truly respect him for that.
Comment #83 November 6th, 2024 at 4:04 pm
Udi #82
Former IDF/Mossad officer Yossi Alpher analyzed Trump’s 2020 plan as a “major boost toward the emergence of a very dangerous non-democratic one-state reality”. If anything, Palestinian position has only weakened since. There is not going to be anything beyond a promise towards a two-state process that Saudis can save face with as they normalize with Israel.
Comment #84 November 6th, 2024 at 4:39 pm
“Hopes for Peace – On Why a Trump Presidency might turn around the situation in the [Middle East]”
The Israeli far-right propagandists are calling it: Bibi and Trump, hand in hand, winning the Nobel Peace Prize in 6 months!
Comment #85 November 6th, 2024 at 4:40 pm
Nothing to add of substance but I imagine if I were an Israeli facing existential risk that I would conclude Trump is a safer bet. I understand that others think differently but that is my honest appraisal. I am not a supporter of Trump nor Harris but would hope for a Trump victory as a practical consideration.
Comment #86 November 6th, 2024 at 5:04 pm
It’s true that the safety of Israel is important, but things are getting more and more complicated as Iran has been brought into it directly, Russia supports Iran because of its help with Ukraine, who says Ukraine says Europe and NATO, North Korea is now also brought into the Ukraine war, encouraging NK to get tougher on SK, bringing China more directly into the game, who says China says Taiwan, the chip supply chain, the Pacific, … mix all that axis into the BRICS, with some of our so-called allies (India, Brazil,…).
This entire messy knot is getting worse by the day, and it’s clearly unrealistic to think that anyone would be able to come up with one magical move that’s gonna untie it, let alone Trump, who decides his every move based on the willingness of the other side to glaze his ego.
Comment #87 November 6th, 2024 at 7:03 pm
Ukraine will likely be forced to concede territory to Russia regardless of who is elected; the only difference is how many men will fall before this happens. Russia’s status as a nuclear power means that neither the US nor NATO will engage directly, as they are unwilling to risk escalation into a nuclear conflict. Meanwhile, Ukraine, already grappling with a demographic crisis, stands no chance in a prolonged war of attrition against Russia.
Trump is the only politician who says this loud, which is refreshing. I don’t believe he could end the war without significant concessions from Ukraine such as ceding territory to Russia and pledging NATO neutrality. However, at least fewer lives would be lost.
The best time for negotiation was when Ukraine had the upper hand in battles (the second-best time is now). Unfortunately, both the US and British leadership told Ukraine to walk away from the negotiation table. The current administration’s approach to the Ukraine conflict reveals a serious lack of strategic thinking, with its foreign policy indistinguishable from the perspectives of The Atlantic’s editorial board. Naturally, this shortfall should be reflected in the election results. If Americans have learned anything from decades of foreign interventions, it’s that they seldom end well.
Comment #88 November 6th, 2024 at 7:14 pm
I always thought the MAGA movement was over because of J6. Of course all of America would be furious that their very own Capitol was attacked by MAGA crazies. Boy was I wrong.
Comment #89 November 6th, 2024 at 8:59 pm
Isn’t it puzzling how the Dem party made the very same mistake against Trump yet again, as in 2016?
Out of touch with reality. Particularly out of touch with white males, or all males. Call all of them sexist and racist even if they’re struggling through life and don’t have a bigoted bone in their bodies. Toxic masculinity, white privilege, male privilege. Blame them for every problem. Is that not racist and sexist? Ofc it is. But no problem, they deserve it right?!
Ok, then what?
Then, lose, because Trump is a demagogue who knows exactly how to appeal to men in this type of pain. Lose the election and DOUBLE DOWN IN CALLING THEM RACIST AND SEXIST YET AGAIN! Are these men not human with feelings?! Just observe what is ok to say and write about them that will not be tolerated against any other group.
But the country gets 2 years of him and seems to vote against him in the midterms. I anticipate the same thing again. And then, Dems will make the same mistakes in 4 years.
Identity politics never goes away. Look at Tamilnadu state in India, where I’m from. Anyone with any talent or ambition has to leave the state to get ahead, if they have a certain identity. There’s none of us left in the state anymore.
Maybe, maybe, the election of this awful person will weaken identity politics? Or will it just mobilize them? I guess this is the big question. The media wants to keep it alive, it sells. The politicians want to keep it alive. Voters are easy to manipulate.
Comment #90 November 6th, 2024 at 9:51 pm
“Ukraine will likely be forced to concede territory to Russia regardless of who is elected; the only difference is how many men will fall before this happens.”
Men are lost on the Russian side too. How many is Putin able to lose, realistically, for very little progress in terms of territory?
Besides, many ex-communist block European countries have no illusion that Putin’s conquest on his neighbors will stop at 20% of Ukraine (remember that initially he was planning to take Kiev), he’s already making the same moves on Moldova and Georgia.
Comment #91 November 6th, 2024 at 10:17 pm
To think that solving the war in Ukraine is just a matter of forcing Zelenski to accept Putin’s terms is delusional.
Europeans have been deeply traumatized by the 180 degree deception done by Putin, after years of cajoling him in all sorts of way (gas pipelines, giving him a pass for the first Ukraine aggression and Georgia, etc), and Trumpistan, with its limited understanding of world geography and politics, doesn’t understand that dropping Ukraine will force Europe to indeed take full charge of its own defense (NATO will become meaningless), military budgets across the EU will go up even more drastically than they’ve been since Putin’s aggression on Ukraine, meaning Europe will have to start trading entirely within itself, not just for its weapons (no reason for the EU to keep buying US gear) but also for all its everyday goods (*)… which will already be forced to happen thanks to Trump’s promise of new outrageous tariffs on European products.
(*) e.g. Lithuania, which has always been super pro-US, has just stated this. Lithuania may be small, but they were the first in the EU to start opposing the bullying from China, no matter the consequences, so these guys are quite serious about this type of stuff.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%E2%80%93Lithuania_relations#21st_century
Comment #92 November 6th, 2024 at 11:14 pm
Craig #88
This must be very confusing to outsiders, but I can shed some light on why that is. None of the supporters I have talked to associate themselves with the perpetrators of Jan 6. They see it as an embarrassing thing done by people who claimed to be on their side. It isn’t generally believed that the rioters were lead by people deeply embedded in the future administration, and there are some conspiracy theories that they were lead by its opponents. As far as I can tell the conspiracies are there to cleanse their proponents of any association with the crimes committed. There were some who accepted the beer hall putsch analogy and wanted to switch teams, but policies like wage and price controls or large gifts to new homeowners seemed so destructive to them that they were unable to bring themselves to actually support the other candidate. Those promises of what goes for left-wing extremism in the US seemed to have been offered at around the time that young voters started complaining about a rightward shift in middle eastern policy, a barter that neither the old nor the new customers seemed willing to make.
Comment #93 November 7th, 2024 at 6:22 am
The same threats to democracy by way of populism are happening everywhere.
Check it out, the exact same crisis of judicial reform that happened in Israel is going on right now in Mexico. Different profile of society, same thing.
For me the explanation for all this is social media and cell phones.
In the NYC subway, everyone is head down staring at those things, from the Mexican construction workers all the way up to Wall Street dudes, along with everyone else (kids, grandmas,..).
There’s no more separation between information and entertainment, truth and propaganda, ideas and personalities, and it’s all driven by click bait algorithms.
Those massive echo chambers that keep evolving and refine themselves based on tribes are what’s fragmenting society all the way down at the level of families.
So that’s the new reality, it’s all based on personality, being on podcasts, and trending to fill the minds… populists thrive in it, traditional politics can’t keep up and needs to adapt.
Comment #94 November 7th, 2024 at 6:30 am
For all those who are depressed and trying to cope, pls read the statement from Obama. Especially this concluding statement stood out – the man knows his words – of belief in humanity.
In a country as big and diverse as ours, we won’t always see eye-to-eye on everything. But progress requires us to extend good faith and grace – even to people with whom we deeply disagree
Comment #95 November 7th, 2024 at 8:17 am
@Qwerty #89:
I didn’t see the Harris campaign (or any of the local Democrat campaigns) singling out white males for scorn and derision, calling them racist, sexist, toxic, etc. Sure, there are some vocal people on the Left who sing this tune, but I didn’t see Harris or any of the Democrats running for office screaming “white males evil.” In fact, the message I got from the Harris campaign was that we are ALL Americans and need to put our differences aside and work together to fix our problems.
I didn’t see her singling out any groups of people. I didn’t see her accusing certain groups of people of “poisoning the blood of our nation.” Or that certain groups of people were eating pets and destroying entire cities. Or that certain groups of people were performing sex change operations in public schools at lunch recess.
It’s the Trumpligula campaign that played identity politics, and played it with poisonous precision.
Comment #96 November 7th, 2024 at 9:00 am
The people had a choice between a plate with a stale hamburger or a plate with a fresh steamy pile of shit.
They chose the fresh steamy pile of shit.
Adding a bit of caviar or truffle mayo to the stale hamburger wouldn’t have a difference.
You gotta let the people enjoy eating the shit, knowing that the shit will only seem fresh for the very first bite and start tasting worse and worse after that.
Comment #97 November 7th, 2024 at 9:11 am
RB #83:
The Mossad officer you linked to, essentially predicted October 7:
“Accordingly, and irrespective of the territorial map offered by the plan, it is unacceptable to the Palestinians–the Palestinian Authority, the PLO, Hamas–as a basis for negotiations. The only question is how much violence this rejection will now engender.”
Now, predicting violence response from the Hamas is an easy prediction. Still, he shows a direct link between Trump’s ignorant plan and the Palestinian conclusion that they cannot hope for a diplomatic solution.
Therefore, if we insist on blaming an American president for October 7, it should be Trump. Biden’s only fault is that he failed to clean up all the mess Trump left behind him.
Comment #98 November 7th, 2024 at 9:13 am
fred #96
I think that is not correct. Half the country will see things as going brilliantly, no matter what. While shifts are bipartisan, Republicans generally cheer harder and boo louder .
Comment #99 November 7th, 2024 at 10:25 am
Reaction to Trump’s victory from troops at the front in Gaza and Ukraine
Comment #100 November 7th, 2024 at 11:00 am
Brian #95,
“Sure, there are some vocal people on the Left who sing this tune, but”
You cannot pretend that far Left censorship, cancelling of divergent thought, antisemitism, identity politics (aka racism and misandry), socialism, and other delusions have nothing to do with Democrats, given that Harris never condemned them and relied on woke voters. Also, Democrats associate project 2025 and other rightist delusions with Trump, despite him repeatedly rejecting any association with that.
There is an interesting website, “perception gap”, that compares what D thinks R’s opinions are versus R’s actual opinions, and what R thinks D’s opinions are v D’s opinions. One of the conclusions is that well-educated Democrats are rather clueless about Republican views, more so than vice versa. One possibility is that Democrats dominate universities and thus the dominating impression of what Republicans think is what other Democrats say the Republicans think.
There is no doubt in my mind that he’s a terrible person and possibly the worst POTUS we ever had, and some of his remarks are just as deranged as what the far Left was saying, or rather screaming, for years now. Nevertheless, it’s premature to expect Armageddon; those expectations are the product of your image of the Right, not the Right itself.
Regarding what the minorities think of Trump, the very same minorities you think Trump is going to abuse, consider this:
In Dearborn, where 55% of the residents are of Middle Eastern descent, Trump won with 42.48% of the vote over Vice President Kamala Harris, who received 36.26%
Comment #101 November 7th, 2024 at 11:45 am
Michael P #100
Republicans and allies on certain ideological values engage in cancel culture just as much, except for their own pet peeves. Harris was trying to win an election campaigning with people like Liz Cheney, not ‘relying on woke voters’. If at all, she was angling more for the never Trump Republicans than the pro-Palestinian Democrats.
Comment #102 November 7th, 2024 at 12:10 pm
RB
let me remind you that Trump did very poorly election wise after his first term – he did lose to Biden, and the so-called red tsunami in the mid terms never happened,… so much so that the GOP tried to turn on him.
The vast majority of the US population that voted for Trump aren’t Wall Street/tech bro billionaires, they don’t care that much about ideology but are very sensitive to any of his policies going sour:
Now that Trump has the Senate and the House (likely), this time he could actually totally repeal Obamacare. His plan to drive up tariffs are already expected to drive up the price of every day goods..
He’s also surrounding himself with clueless sycophants (unlike his first term), so the odds of actual policies being thoroughly vetted and carefully tuned is very low.
Musk himself already acknowledged that, if Trump policies are deployed, America’s next two years are going to be very difficult for the nation.
It was very easy for Trump to play the blame game after he lost in 2020, but, unlike in 2016, he’s been pounding in everyone’s head his “program” for over 4 years now: world peace, a thriving golden age US economy with no inflation, a fix to illegal immigration and security, a healthcare reform, ending wokeism, right-wing promises (ending abortion)… so this time everyone is very aware, and now that he’s fully in charge, what got him elected can very easily and quickly backfire in his face if he fails to deliver.
But, yes, I guess there’s always a chance that eating too much shit may rewire your taste buds and you start developing an acquired taste for it…
Comment #103 November 7th, 2024 at 12:40 pm
fred,
You are right that we have to get through the next two years somehow and hope for the best in the midterms. In 2020, Trump still managed to turn out as many voters as he did this time, but was done in by the pandemic’s impact. I don’t think there is anything unknown about his style at this point that factors into his voters’ decision. Unless there is a recessionary economy, sentiment about his government is going to stay high. Mid-terms are usually a time where incumbents in the House don’t do so well. Since this is most likely a clean sweep, I do think chances are good that Dems win back the house. But yes, in the meantime, they have the power to throw out Obamacare, which I imagine is a very, very high priority for Trump. In the next two years, they also have to extend the Trump tax cuts, so let’s see if they have the bandwidth for both.
Comment #104 November 7th, 2024 at 1:05 pm
Not sure if you will allow this rant to be published, but I wanted to have it out there.
Basically: fuck it. Trump won, and it wasn’t even close. The People got what they voted for, and however it turns out, it was their choice to have it.
And yet, I don’t feel quite the panic that I felt in November 2016.
Partially, it is because of comments like Scott #19, and things my own family said, that make it seem like the US will remain a liberal democracy despite Trump’s rhetoric and the Democrats’ dire warnings. Yes, things will suck for a while, but we can survive it.
The other part is that, despite my vote for Harris, I have shifted to the right since 2016, and especially since Oct 7, 2023. It is not even mainly a shift in views, rather it is more a shift in emphasis, and a feeling like I didn’t leave the left, rather the left left me.
I feel more Israeli than American, and, even in 2020, if I was judging the candidates solely on their Israel and Iran policies, I would have voted for Trump. When Israel’s holiday from history ended brutally on Oct 7, and I watched so much of the left turn on Israel and truth and basic decency (even WIKIPEDIA, of all places!!!!), I lost a lot of my remaining attachments to what Scott Alexander called the Blue Tribe. And this was merely the acceleration of a trend that began way earlier, to the beginnings of the Great Awokening in 2013/2014. To take a random example, Jon Stewart was hilarious in 2011, but by 2021 I saw him as deeply unfunny, and also as part of the problem.
I still hold many of my left-of-center views, from healthcare, taxes, and social insurance to urban planning and the energy transition. If Trump does not overthrow American democracy and trample on basic civil liberties, then I expect him to be the chaos president, like he was last time.
And yet, my vote for Harris was a reluctant vote, more against Trump and what he represents than anything else. The Democrats fucked up big, and I no longer care as much as I used to. If nothing bad happens, then I can let out a sigh of relief that I was wrong, and be glad that the UNRWA-supporting “de-escalation” appeasers are out of power. If bad things do happen, then, well, The People are merely getting what they voted for, in a landslide no less. If worse comes to worst and America becomes a hybrid regime or outright dictatorship, then I can flee back to my homeland, as I was uselessly dreaming of doing since I was 6, and console myself by saying that I did what I could when I could, and what happened since was beyond my control.
The next four years are going to be very interesting times.
Comment #105 November 7th, 2024 at 2:28 pm
Udi #97
Yossi Alpher’s forecast is that this slippery slope towards a one-state reality is likely to play out over the next several decades.
Comment #106 November 7th, 2024 at 4:12 pm
One thing that fills my heart with joy is that it’s a 100% certainty that the Trump/Musk honeymoon won’t last very long.
Musk already reached to Trump at the start of his first presidency, and that went nowhere.
But this time around Musk has entangled himself to Trump so tightly that he’s gonna have to deal with him for the long run, because any fallout between the two will make Musk look like a phony opportunist, and much worse, could jeopardize all the government contracts that Trump will now control.
And we know that Trump doesn’t deal well with people who are smarter than him (that’s a low bar), the only ones who stick around are the lowest IQ sycophant morons.
Add to this that Musk’s own ego has now reached Trump levels of narcissism, and they’re both totally unable to control their social media ramblings, so it’s bound to be quite a spectacle.
I’m just gonna sit back and enjoy…
Comment #107 November 7th, 2024 at 5:50 pm
One last comment and I shut up.
As a narcissist, Trump is really playing with the odds here.
One thing that could catch up with him is America’s ageism.
America expects a strong man as a President (I say “man” because so far no woman managed to get elected).
When the “West” frontier closed, in late 19th century, it was the end of an era for the American myth of the strong man, the cowboy.
Teddy Roosevelt exploited this and re-imagined a new strong man as a leader.
https://i.imgur.com/dswxNmW.jpeg
FDR made sure to never be seen in his wheelchair in public.
Reagan: https://i.imgur.com/cd7YFKN.jpeg
W Bush: https://i.imgur.com/LsTGesN.jpeg
The country was extremely cruel towards Biden when he started to decline.
This is to say that Trump is 78, unhealthy, and the odds of someone his age dying in the next 4 years is something like 20%.
But something far worse than sudden death could happen to him.
He’s not immune to a quick mental decline (like Biden’s), a stroke, a bad fall, … and there’s no doubt it would be extremely difficult for him to cope with something like this.
Unlike when one gets shot in the ear, you can’t rise from this with the fist up in the air.
And I doubt his MAGA followers will be able to cope with this very well either.
Comment #108 November 8th, 2024 at 4:10 am
@J.D.Vance
You wrote:
“Russia’s status as a nuclear power means that neither the US nor NATO will engage directly, as they are unwilling to risk escalation into a nuclear conflict.”
I agree, but look at this quote from Ben Shapiro: (thefp.com/p/ben-shapiro-vote-donald-trump)
When I held a fundraiser for Trump a few months ago, he told this story. He said:
“You want to know why Vladimir Putin never invaded Ukraine on my watch? Because I called him and I told him, “Vlad, Vlad, don’t you do it.” And Vlad said, “Why not, Mr. President?” And I said, “Because, Vlad, if you do, I’m gonna bomb the s*** out of you.” And he said, “No, you won’t, Mr. President.” And I said, “Well, I might!”
So that is Trump bluffing and Putin knows this and has called the bluff. And no, it doesn’t matter which US president is bluffing. Nevertheless Ben Shapiro and most Republicans believe, that the bluff worked.
The only option is to force Putin to get tired of the war by supporting the Ukraine in its defense. Nuclear powers do loose wars as e.g. the Soviet Union in Afghanistan or the US in Vietnam as a result of the determination of their opponents.
Trumps intent to cut aids to the Ukraine illustrates the emptiness of his earlier threat and invites Russia to continue its path on its way to the restoration of the Soviet Union. Leaving the Ukraine to itself will end and loose the war and provide the settings for the start of the next one.
Comment #109 November 8th, 2024 at 7:53 am
One last comment and I shut up.
Regarding Trump’s threat/plan to deport millions of undocumented immigrants.
Trump won’t even have to actually do this. Practically it’s totally unrealistic anyway.
He’s just going to deport tens of thousands of undocumented in confederate states.
This will make his base happy (making it look like to them that he fulfilled his promise), but, more importantly, this will be enough to send the other millions of undocumented fleeing to liberal sanctuary cities on the coasts.
The plan here is to put those cities under so much strain that they will go bankrupt, for revenge or just to drive the voters there to align with the far-right.
This is a plan we already see happen during last year under a smaller scale when the confederate states started bussing the asylum seekers at the South border to sanctuary cities.
In NYC, (corrupt) mayor Adams already was struggling to get extra funding from Biden, under Trump he’ll get a negative amount.
Since Trump’s victory, NYC is already seeing a surge in undocumented moving in.
PS: After an election we forget that winning the election is actually the *easy* part. Keeping one half of 334 million people happy is quite another matter entirely.
Comment #110 November 8th, 2024 at 8:05 am
Uspring
“The only option is to force Putin to get tired of the war by supporting the Ukraine in its defense.”
People forgot that’s how the West won the cold war. Keep putting the pressure through the economics, by outspending them.
Of course Putin said that the USSR losing the cold war and breaking up was the biggest tragedy of the 20th century, and I expect Trumpistan to start agreeing with that.
Everyone knows that Trump already played the “I’m gonna nuke you” card the first time around with NK and Iran. Then Putin and Kim realized they could use the same card… but they quickly found out that the more you use it, the less effective it becomes. Trump is about to find it out too.
Of course, were he to actually start using nukes (during his first term he seemed genuinely confused as to why we don’t), I’m sure Trumpistan is going to normalize that too (assuming anyone is still around).
Comment #111 November 8th, 2024 at 9:31 am
Upspring #108
Russia has roughly four times the population, an adjoining border, and fighting largely on farmland. Your analogies are not analogous. More WWI than Vietnam Nam or Afghanistan.
Comment #112 November 8th, 2024 at 10:25 am
Also the case that representatives of the Russian Government have routinely stated that no level of likely losses will be considered an unacceptable level of losses. Operations will continue until objectives are achieved no matter the cost.
Russia has made some advances recently and some western military observers have concerns that the defensive line is in danger of wider collapse (I don’t know how well this wider collapse possibility represents the situation). Wars that are politically limited in terms of scope and/or time turn to s##t against an equipped determined foe.
Comment #113 November 8th, 2024 at 11:59 am
The irony is that Putin’s war is sacrificing a significant chunk of Russia and Ukraine’s supply of men in their prime while the two countries’ demographics are also in a very grim downward spiral because of very low birth rates.
Comment #114 November 8th, 2024 at 1:22 pm
https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/08/politics/doj-charges-three-iranian-plot-to-kill-donald-trump/index.html
Gee, I wonder who the axis of evil prefers as US president
Comment #115 November 8th, 2024 at 2:42 pm
Vladimir #114: The axis of evil was split on who it preferred, with all the non-Islamist parts very obviously preferring Trump.
Comment #116 November 8th, 2024 at 3:08 pm
Mullahs vowing revenge for Soleimani is not the same as a policy preference, even if other evidence might show so.
Comment #117 November 8th, 2024 at 3:30 pm
Vladimir
the funerals of general Suleimani, that Trump assassinated with a drone strike.
Only a total idiot would have thought that this would go unpunished…
https://youtu.be/-x88HVir4qA
Comment #118 November 8th, 2024 at 5:36 pm
Vladimir #114
“Gee, I wonder who the axis of evil prefers as US president”
Politics is not a zero sum game. No one is arguing that Trump was bad for Iran. Trump walking out of the nuclear deal was bad for Iran. But it was also bad for the US. Instead of trading with Iran we are sanctioning them. And it is really bad for Israel that Iran is so much closer to having Nuclear weapons.
On the other hand, it was good for Putin, to get into better relations with Iran and a supply of Shahed dones.
Comment #119 November 8th, 2024 at 9:58 pm
Not on-topic for this post (and this old post of yours is too old to comment on!) but perhaps people will find some joy in this: the 27-state Turing machine that was designed to halt iff Goldbach is false has been formally verified in Lean to have the claimed behaviour.
Comment #120 November 8th, 2024 at 10:17 pm
The US is basically moving back to a time with two opposing cultures, one based on the rule of law and intellectuals (the north) coming from aristocratic England/Europe, one with strong/macho men with a tradition of freedom and taking justice in their own hands (the south, the pioneers) coming from the shepherd class of England.
Comment #121 November 9th, 2024 at 7:18 am
To keep a few things in perspective, Russia is indeed gaining territory in the Ukrainian front, but the total captured so far in 2024 is 500 square miles, which is about 1% of the size of NY state. We’re talking about the supposed second army of the world, after Putin has switched on the war economy in Russia…
That said, what really matters is the rate of capture, but it’s unlikely either side around the war front would suddenly collapse, so Ukrainians aren’t in any real rush to cave to making concessions to Putin, knowing that he never respected any past agreements.
Comment #122 November 9th, 2024 at 10:26 am
A very interesting discussion at the Bulwark, including David Frum
Comment #123 November 9th, 2024 at 11:06 am
For those who wonder about all of Trump’s criminal cases:
Comment #124 November 9th, 2024 at 11:17 am
OhMyGoodness #112:
I wouldn’t expect Putin to advertise the conditions under which he would resign his mission in the Ukraine.
Comment #125 November 9th, 2024 at 11:26 am
fred #121
Yes. The wrong direction to fulfill the non negotiable portion of the Ukrainian plan to evict the invaders. As of July (since March 2022) the US alone has provided Ukraine $54 billion in weapons and around $50 billion in other aid. If you ever wondered what is included in $50 billion in weapons here is the list. I haven’t looked at what the Euros have provided.
https://media.defense.gov/2024/Jul/03/2003497646/-1/-1/1/UKRAINE-FACT-SHEET-3-JULY.PDF
The point is that even if this continues, and even with no further change of territory, the Ukrainians run out of front line replacements first. Someone mentioned this above that Ukraine cannot win a war of attrition. They just do not have enough population to prevail a WW I type conflict.. The strategy needs to change radically or just more human grist for the front line mill to prolong.
Comment #126 November 9th, 2024 at 12:27 pm
Here is a map with territory controlled by Ukraine prior to February 2022 in dark outline (Far Eastern Ukraine and Crimea). The area outside of this in dark red outline and shaded red is the current area controlled by Russia. The 500 square miles is just the latest addition. The total is much larger.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-8-2024
Comment #127 November 9th, 2024 at 1:16 pm
Have you seen this https://x.com/RichardHanania/status/1854926149308366891 ? Reminds me of how we elected Reagan and Iran immediately released the hostages.
Yes Trump is a boorish narcissist who does not concede when he loses. But you have to give credit where credit is due.
Comment #128 November 9th, 2024 at 1:31 pm
Should read-controlled by Russia (not Ukraine) prior to February 2022
Comment #129 November 9th, 2024 at 2:42 pm
Uspring #124
I agree but if you extrapolate from what has transpired to date then no basis to doubt the integrity of these statements. If planning future military activity you must plan for the case that these statements represent true intentions.
Comment #130 November 9th, 2024 at 3:10 pm
T vs H #127
https://x.com/FT/status/1855012683826831390
Comment #131 November 9th, 2024 at 3:25 pm
Uspring #124
There is also historical precedent for Russia successfully trading significant military resources for strategic advantage.
Comment #132 November 9th, 2024 at 5:43 pm
Trump vs Hamas
“Reminds me of how we elected Reagan and Iran immediately released the hostages.”
Those were different times indeed:
https://www.nytimes.com/1982/08/13/world/reagan-demands-end-to-attacks-in-a-blunt-telephone-call-to-begin.html
I guess if you’re an Israeli who’s pro-Bibi, Trump’s victory is good news indeed.
But I’m not so sure that it’s good news for anti-Bibi Israelis and even more so for American Jews.
First, it’s not like Bibi hasn’t been able to do exactly what he wanted, the guy is totally unshackled, the Biden administration couldn’t influence him in the least, and Biden still delivered all the weapons and aid to Israel.
Of course, maybe all the talk about ceasefire from Biden was just theater to try and cool down things in the US…
But that’s my point, at least Biden tried to cool down things here, and it’s not just about students on campuses. But even Biden/Harris suggestion of ceasefire was seen as anti-Zionism, not only by Israelis but by American Jews too.
With Trump it’s gonna be obvious to everyone that it’s not about the foundational principle to help Israel, no matter what, in a pro-Zionist way, but that it’s about being 100% pro-Bibi very specifically, and I think that’s going to be a worse outcome long term for the popularity rating of Israel worldwide and in the US itself among the general population, which is also going to turn into a worse situation for American Jews than if Harris had won… again, Harris would have helped Israel just as much, but not by being pro-Bibi explicitly (which is normal because neither government should appear to interfere explicitly with each other’s democratic processes).
Unless of course you believe that Trump will go further and stick to his word that he would start to jail/deport anyone in the US who shows the smallest pro-Palestinian sentiment, all in the name of expending the definition of antisemitism, making it a capital crime, etc… but I believe that would be an even worse outcome for Jews in the US because the average American would start to question why Israel is having such a huge influence on our fundamental right of free speech, contradicting Musk and various other ideologists on the side of Trump (of course, it’s always about double standards anyway).
Comment #133 November 9th, 2024 at 10:15 pm
Guys, let’s keep things objective when it comes to the US helping Ukraine:
The US military budget for 2024 is 841B$.
The aid to Ukraine in 2024 is less than 10% of this.
Quite a great f’ing deal to weaken Putin’s aggression without losing a single US troop.
On top of that the US weapon industry is getting fat contracts, with the weapons being used on the field, something invaluable to improve them.
Then, the US help is 0.4% if its GDP… wow, that ranks the US 29th!
Reagan era Republicans would be ashamed of this.
https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-support-tracker/
France is 23rd.
Canada is 21st.
Belgium is 16th.
Poland is 9th.
Slovakia is 8th.
Sweden is 6th.
Finland is 5th.
Latvia is 4th (1.4% of its GDP committed to helping Ukraine).
Lithuania is 3rd.
Estonia is 2nd.
Denmark is 1st (1.86% of its GDP).
You see a pattern? The closest a country is to Russia or/and the more they got f’ed by Russia during the USSR era, the more they commit without batting an eyelid.
You think that’s a coincidence? You think they’re clueless?
When it comes to a ceasefire, Ukraine will decide. They’re the ones who got invaded, because of their aspiration to join the democratic West. They’re the ones losing population and troops, they’re the ones who remember Bucha.
Comment #134 November 9th, 2024 at 10:24 pm
Last point:
Besides, if the US were to turn its back on Ukraine, what message would this send to the rest of the world?
It would tell the world that the US randomly drops the countries that are ready to make sacrifices to join the West… helping Russia would mean sending the message that, instead, maybe they’d be better off joining the BRICS.
Diplomacy only works based on reputation.
For decades after WW2, the US policy was clear and reliable, a beacon of stability.
After two Trump presidencies, the US will have become too unreliable for its allies to keep reacting to its change of policies, and they will have to move away.
The US really can’t afford this if it wants a chance against China because this will require a strong alliance, it won’t be able to do it alone.
Comment #135 November 10th, 2024 at 7:06 pm
To expand on Fred’s last comment #134. Nuclear proliferation is now baked into the cake.
Putin and North Korea’s Kim have demonstrated that nuclear blackmail works, and what US ally can at this juncture still rely on the US to have their backs?
So, lots of new job opportunities for physicists. Japan, Taiwan South Korea. They will all clandestinely scramble to develop nuclear break-out capabilities.
Comment #136 November 11th, 2024 at 8:15 am
I am very sad and angry at democrats for letting trump win. Trump and his Fox News counterparts tout themselves it’s a mandate. Trump just retained the same voter base as last year but slightly improved. Democrats were blinded by their 2022 mid term elections performance as it did not pivot them to listen to their voters but instead focused on demonizing trump though true but did not resonate with the people. Abortions or 2020 riots didn’t matter as people are willing to let go those issues when they are suffering from high cost of living and immigration issues. Only few understand why democrats are good for the country. The extreme leftist and useless wokist are hijacking the party. The party with strong leadership should listen to the people and work with the opposition who are sitting across the aisle. Obama and Clinton were successful in negotiations which gave them their second term. We need to return to Obama and bill Clinton liberalism not AOC or ilhan Omar liberalism who are hijacking the party. Some of AOC or ilhan ideas are worth listening to but USA is not ready for such kind of drastic changes. At the end of the day this election once again taught economy matters the most. Though people hate trump but they overlooked his bigotry, compulsive lying, monarchical attitude towards governance and other negative things to vote him to power. They gave him another chance but he is sure to squander this opportunity as he doesn’t understand governance but will give his own definition for governance. It’s a wake up call for democrats to reorganize and reorient themselves as the party for the people. I feel like they needed this medicine but at the cost of trump coming to power is what scaring the shit out of me.
Comment #137 November 11th, 2024 at 10:15 am
Quax #135
I agree with you completely.
Then to paraphrase fred-
-It is in US interest to lead the West as it has since WW II and add allies to assist in the coming conflict with China. In this regard Ukraine should be supported with ongoing weapons shipments and let Ukrainians die fighting China’s ally Russia in preference to Americans dying even if there is no reasonable discernible path to victory assuming current strategy continues.-
Presumably this implies strategies that would measure Russia’s willingness to use first strike nuclear weapons are unacceptable.
Also yes, DeGaulle reached a similar conclusion about developing nuclear weapons in country at the conclusion of WWII.
Comment #138 November 11th, 2024 at 10:15 am
The problem is that almost everyone doesn’t understand the talking points around inflation: once the prices have increased, curbing the rate of inflation doesn’t mean they will go back down (deflation),and typical normal inflation level is too low for people to detect this, it’s like boiling the frog. But when inflation is abnormal, then it’s way more obvious.
But even if people understood this, it wouldn’t matter, because, in final analysis, it’s not about prices going up, but about salaries not keeping up with the prices, so everyone feels screwed, even the people who understand the theory… e.g. check your current salary against your inflation adjusted salary from 15 years ago, and you’ll see what I mean… the average american just realized this harsh fact in the last 3 years, and somehow they’ve rewarded the billionaires tech bros and conmen (all of which are immune to inflation) to “fix” this for them.
Comment #139 November 11th, 2024 at 12:38 pm
OhMyGoodness #129 and #131:
You can’t extrapolate indefinitely an enormously costly war. It will eventually hit a limit for both the Ukraine and Russia. You seem to recognise only limits for the Ukraine. Russia is larger, of course, but it doesn’t have backers like the EU and the US (up to now). Western military equipment is far superior and their economies are much stronger.
Putin isn’t completely irrational. He expected the war to be over in a few days. Now it’s difficult to back out without losing his face. But the cost of the war in terms of bloodshed, weaponry and sanctions is immense.
Trump should pressure Putin and not Selensky. It’s Russia invading the Ukraine and not the other way around. People tend to forget this.
Comment #140 November 11th, 2024 at 2:09 pm
Uspring #139
and what almost noone is mentioning is that Putin’s war has turned Russia into a vassal of China (they need China to buy their oil, and nearly all the stuff that’s now on store shelves is made in China… China’s GDP is nearly 9 times Russia’s, although same per capita), and the longer the war lasts, the worse and more irreversible it’s gonna get.
Comment #141 November 11th, 2024 at 3:15 pm
Uspring #139
Same mistakes different war. Americans always believe that others think as they do and will act as they think they should.They don’t and they won’t. I am sure your version of rationality and Putin’s differ considerably.
The cost structure of the Russian war effort is a magnitude different than US cost structure. As an example the Abram’s tanks were taken out of combat soon after arrival because 2 $10 millon per Abrams were destroyed by cheap drones.
The US alone provided $50 billion in weapons and and $50 billion in other direct aid since the invasion and through July of this year. The Russians control much more Ukrainian territory now than before the invasion. The weapons and the Ukrainian efforts have not produced any material reclamation of territory. There is a cause effect curve ripe for extrapolation.
What additional pressure can possibly be applied to Putin. The oil price cap has been ineffective with China and India buying oil above the cap and so 10 billion or so a month in oil revenue. Considerable gas revenue also but I haven’t looked at what it might be. The only additional military pressure that might be applied would violate Russia’s warnings about nuclear weapons. Are you suggesting that risk be taken? What additional pressure is available.?
If the strategy in war is to hope your foe gets tired and quits then not a confidence inspiring foundational basis. You could be right and tonight he might announce-That’s it, our soldiers will return to Russia. I doubt that’s the case and doubt it will be the case at any near time. Strategic war planning on this basis isnothing but hope your foe acts as you think he should.
You are right-stronger economies in the West but in this case I expect the endgame will be driven by men. Who can continue to muster forces at the front. That is the weakness of the current strategy. Ukraine has fewer men and the other Western countries are not willing to provide soldiers.
There are certainly ways to really change the balance but not the will to do so in the West.
Comment #142 November 11th, 2024 at 3:36 pm
fred #140
China is their largest buyer with India second. The Indians are refining this crude and selling the refined products in the EU apparently.
Comment #143 November 11th, 2024 at 4:05 pm
fred #138
On average, wages more or less caught up with inflation after the peak in mid-2022, but the prices and price shocks are persistent.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=1AoPD
Voters are not going to see prices come back down from 2024 levels, let alone to 2019 levels. Let’s see if what they get on immigration is what they were looking for.
Comment #144 November 11th, 2024 at 4:41 pm
About fears of political retaliations from Trump: he never did or suggested anything as despicable as FEMA denying help to hurricane victims who voted for the other party. Democrats did that. Cancellations, censorship, pressure to self-censor, and now this. People are afraid to speak their mind out of fear of Democrats’ retaliation; not the other way around.
It happens so often that what you think about the other tells more about you then the other. Many times autocrats or autocratic parties tried, often successfully, scare public into supporting them by claiming that the opponents would do some awful things, the awful thing being exactly what the autocrats are doing themselves. This makes the allegations familiar and easy to project on the “other.” We can see this technique in Putin’s current rhetoric and in so many other autocracies around the World.
I don’t think that US is in more danger of becoming in dictatorship as it would be of becoming a party autocracy if the colors reversed.
Comment #145 November 11th, 2024 at 6:17 pm
Re: Michael P #144, we should all know about the “fearsome, autocratic and despicable presumably Democrat” leader of 12 low-level employees of Crew 33, who Trump is not like.
Comment #146 November 12th, 2024 at 12:47 am
Quax #135, nuclear proliferation is indeed a scary prospect. In my view one of the main motivations to establish NATO in 1949 was to provide the US nuclear umbrella to protect technologically advanced nations, so that they would not have an incentive to develop their own nuclear weapons. The more fingers there are on various buttons, the greater the risk that miscalculation or a simple error would lead to end of the human civilization. In the 50s even Sweden had a clandestine program to develop nukes, into which a lot of credibility was brought by existence of the ASEA company building nuclear power plants.
With emergence of Trump policies, it may turn out to have been a grave error to rely on continuity of an US policy of such vital importance, at the time Mr. Putin experiments with ways to do nuclear-backed expansion. France has it own isolationist instincts, and UK is an island that has even left the EU. It is hard to see they would take the role the US has had.
Trump withdrawing from the Paris climate agreement is another scary prospect. Not only because of its direct effect on the planet, but also because it would turn the global tide more favourable to petrostates, which would allow Russia to better fund its re-arming by selling fossil fuels. The current plan of using Wagner to get gold from Mali and Sudan is not a bad plan, either, at the time of rising gold prices.
These would be times demanding strong alliances and wise leaders. Not many visible.
Comment #147 November 12th, 2024 at 1:41 am
OhMyGoordness #141, re:”I expect the endgame will be driven by men. Who can continue to muster forces at the front.”
As pointed out by a local pundit Arkady Moses, the same applies to any negotiated solution. If the West negotiates a cease-fire and, say, a demilitarized zone, which party will send peacekeepers to observe it? If mr Putin reneges on the agreement and invades again, or tests how much he can stretch the terms before getting a reaction – which party is going to intervene? The isoliationist-minded Trump-led US would be very reluctant to do so, and Europe has weakened itself to the point that it does not have sufficient forces.
https://www-hs-fi.translate.goog/mielipide/art-2000010767666.html?_x_tr_sl=fi&_x_tr_tl=en
Comment #148 November 12th, 2024 at 9:16 am
Mikko Kavaranta #146
In my view De Gaulle reached the correct decision. Relying on a third party (US) to respond to a nuclear attack, with the cost of the US absorbing a nuclear attack as a result, provides reduced surety with respect to having control over your own nuclear warheads. Reduced surety implies reduced deterrence value. France was assisted by sanctioned assistance of particularly Israelis but also US personnel with the thought in the US that having an independent set of warheads did in fact provide additional deterrence. Allies having their own warheads a positive and foes a negative.
It’s a messy world and avoiding the reality of that world doesn’t make it more orderly but does negatively impact the quality of decisions on how to proceed. The US media often provides the fairy tale version of these situations and that forms the basis of beliefs until it comes completely unglued. It seems to be a consistent pattern
Mikko Kiviranta #147
Thank you for the link that does succinctly set out pertinent issues.
Possible courses of action include escalating and increasing risk of some form of first strike or not and doing the best you can in an all around bad situation.
Comment #149 November 12th, 2024 at 10:54 am
To me, the real concern with all the issues the world is currently dealing with (wars, global warming, nuclear proliferation) is that they simply may not be any actual perfect solutions left, or if there are, there just isn’t any way of knowing what could work and we’re too pressed for time to be able to experiment because things are mostly irreversible… so, at best, there are maybe just some paths left that will slow down the inevitable, and we can only hope we’re on one of those tracks.
And the irony is that the belief that things can actually be fixed perfectly leads to in-fighting , flip-flopping, or even inaction that makes things even worse.
The fact that in the 21th century the world as a whole still doesn’t have a global common vision for the future of humanity (any sort of common goal we could all agree on) is really hitting us back very hard. As time passes, the strategy of trial and error, or discovering the way through competition, is less and less viable.
Comment #150 November 12th, 2024 at 10:54 am
Of course Russia, India, and China have independent nuclear arsenals. Brazil is very close if they restarted their program, South Africa destroyed their weapons , and Iran is close. North Korea is new to the club and Pakistan’s balance India’s. US, UK, France, and Israel are of course independent. Non proliferation hasn’t really fostered allies having these weapons and foes not.
Comment #151 November 13th, 2024 at 6:02 am
As Dr Aaronson noted some months ago, and someone above noted, Ukraine gave up their nuclear arsenal. If you consider a Russian decision tree for use of a tactical nuclear device in Ukraine at this time, the tree and risk assessment are considerably different now then they would have been if those weapons retained. The situation elsewhere is similar except development in country instead of surrender. South Korea and Japan as examples seem to me prone to increased risk due to the third party involvement of the US.
Comment #152 November 13th, 2024 at 8:25 am
Sorry to drag this out but my conclusion is that global security would increase if South Korea and Japan had their own nuclear arsenals rather than decrease.
Comment #153 November 13th, 2024 at 11:24 am
OhMyGoodness #141:
“The only additional military pressure that might be applied would violate Russia’s warnings about nuclear weapons.”
Nuclear powers don’t easily deploy these kinds of weaponry. They are optional only in cases of a direct threat to the existence of their own countries. Military engagement in another not nuclearly armed state doesn’t attain this level.
A failure to steal foreign territory does not pose an existential risk to Russia itself. Russia is a viable state without owning parts of the Ukraine. I don’t see a nuclear risk in keeping up the current level of support to the Ukraine and not even one stepping it up.
Along the lines you are suggesting: If China seizes Taiwan will Trump declare that he cannot help since Taiwan is much too small to defend iself and besides, that China has nukes?
#148:
“In my view De Gaulle reached the correct decision.”
If every other European state had thought like this, they’d have nukes at every gas station. An atomic umbrella works nicely even if only a few states actually possess nuclear bombs _and_ believably establish, that they will use them on the behalf of others.
Now the US seems to want to withdraw from international obligations, which will cause a proliferation of weaponry of all sorts and encourage aggressive powers to grab as much as they desire.
The idea, that the world is safer if every country is nuclearly armed is very strange. Local nuclear conflicts break out more likely than global ones and are prone to involve neighbouring countries by fallout etc.
Comment #154 November 13th, 2024 at 1:59 pm
Uspring #153
Russia considers Crimea and at least the Donetsk Region as part of the Russian state. They were annexed by Russia.
Also Russia changed its nuclear doctrine in September to include the following
-the importance of nuclear weapons to prevent an escalation of military actions and their termination on conditions that are acceptable for the Russian Federation and/or its allies-
This link as an example-
https://www.csis.org/analysis/why-russia-changing-its-nuclear-doctrine-now
If your statements were correct the US could provide full combat support, including deployment of troops, to Ukraine. It would be a completely different war.
As for proliferation, my view is that global security would improve, rather than worsen, if South Korea and Japan had nuclear arsenals just as the US position was that global security would improve (not worsen) when France had a nuclear arsenal. Forgive me if I don’t address your comments about nuclear weapons in gas stations.
Comment #155 November 13th, 2024 at 3:01 pm
Uspring #153
Statement from Medvedev in May of this year-
said it would be a “fatal mistake” on the part of the West to think that Russia was not ready to use tactical nuclear weapons against Ukraine.
He also spoke of the potential to strike unnamed hostile countries with strategic nuclear weapons.
“This is, alas, neither intimidation nor bluffing,” said Medvedev.
Comment #156 November 13th, 2024 at 5:52 pm
I feel like I’ve reached a state of relative peace. Let the storm rage all it wants, my mind is my sanctuary. More reason to take better care of it.
Not to sound smug, but one can say that instead of the West teaching democracy to the East, it now appears that the East has taught demagoguery to the West!
Comment #157 November 14th, 2024 at 6:01 am
When their kid needs to undergo a serious surgery, everyone will hope to get the most qualified surgeon out there.
But, when it comes to running the country, apparently a majority wants the people in charge to be just as dumb and unqualified as they are.
I guess they think that running the country and the world is a clown show and nothing really matters besides the LOLs.
That must partly come from the arrogance of thinking that America really is great.
Comment #158 November 14th, 2024 at 6:37 am
I may be missing some event(s), or mistaken in some other way, but this looks like to me a clear new phase of nuclear strategy as a claimed adjunct to conventional warfare.
Comment #159 November 14th, 2024 at 9:19 am
I’m not a single-issue voter, but if I WERE a single-issue voter, that issue would be freedom of speech, because THAT is the most essential “error-correcting mechanism”, and I would find it somewhat astonishing if you thought the Democrats and Harris were better on that issue than the Republicans and Trump. Whatever horrible policies Trump may implement, he is not going to become a Stalin-like figure who censors media and jails or bankrupts people for politically incorrect speech.
Comment #160 November 14th, 2024 at 10:44 am
Nothing to do with politics, but a plug, I find this science youtuber to be super interesting, he tackles the most difficult questions with pretty clear explanations
Comment #161 November 14th, 2024 at 11:09 am
OhMyGoodness #154 and #155:
Maybe I wasn’t clear enough about what kind of support I meant. I thought about conventional up to say 100 km range weapons but no troops.
And I’m fine with France and the UK having a nuclear arsenal. If Trump recedes from the Nato, then this will be the only armament of this kind to protect Europe. That doesn’t imply, that I want every state in the EU to have these. I think we’re not too far apart on this issue.
I wouldn’t give much credence to the announcements made by the Kremlin. Putin has threatened to employ his nuclear capabilities the day after his troops crossed the border. I don’t know whether he actually means to use them. But I’m sure he would say so even if he didn’t mean it.
Comment #162 November 14th, 2024 at 11:41 am
Mike Huckabee as US ambassador in Israel…
Not only peace in the Middle-East is finally on the way, but the rest of the world will soon see all the wrong of its anti-Israel sentiment!
What a win-win /s
Comment #163 November 15th, 2024 at 5:13 am
Uspring #161
I understand that Ukraine has huge incentive to make this larger considering the current outlook. I would expect nothing less, but the consistent messaging from US agencies has been-
“Intelligence agencies concluded that granting Ukraine’s request to use Western missiles against targets deep in Russia could prompt forceful retaliation while not fundamentally changing the course of the war.”. (New York Times)
I can’t say that they have a better assessment than you but it is a material concern.
The cycle thus far has been that the next name brand weapons system is required to change the tide. The weapons system is delivered with accompanying media hoopla break dancing HIMARS). The weapons system then has no strategic impact on the course of the war.
Comment #164 November 15th, 2024 at 8:55 am
Joseph Shipman
“Whatever horrible policies Trump may implement, he is not going to become a Stalin-like figure who censors media and jails or bankrupts people for politically incorrect speech.”
Like all Trump supporters, you’re either clueless or disingenuous.
It’s always the same pattern “Trump is horrible but he’ll do (xyz) right”.
In this case, the hilarious claim that Trump is a defender of free speech…
Sure, when it comes to pushing the most ridiculous conspiracies and lies, Trumpistan is all for it, of course!
But that doesn’t constitute the entirety of “free speech”, and Trump has a long history of suing or treatening to sue various comedians and commentators over things they said about him. Of course this never went anywhere because this fucking moron has no clue what free speech is, which is to say that he’s for it when it comes to what he wants to say, but he’s against it when it comes to what everyone else is allowed to say:
Trump sued Bill Maher over a joke
https://www.reuters.com/article/lifestyle/trump-withdraws-orangutan-lawsuit-against-comic-bill-maher-idUSBRE9310PL/
Trump threatened to sue Rosie O’Donnell
https://www.today.com/today/amp/wbna16304661
And, of course, Trump must have been explained by his lawyers that there are strict rules that draw the line between free speech and defamation, and he has been actively trying to change libel laws
https://www.aclu.org/news/free-speech/trump-once-again-threatens-change-federal-libel-laws-dont-exist
Comment #165 November 15th, 2024 at 3:19 pm
Joseph Shipman #159:
I’m sorry, are you serious?
Let’s go through some of the “astonishing” reasons why I think the Democrats are better than Trump on free speech. Here is Trump’s track record on the issue:
If I had to bet on which candidate is more likely to “become a Stalin-like figure who censors media and jails or bankrupts people for politically incorrect speech”, I’d put my net worth on Trump.
I challenge you to produce a list of evidence supporting your argument. I guarantee you will not be able to make Kamala look even 10% as deranged, authoritarian, and undemocratic on the free speech issue as Trump.
Comment #166 November 15th, 2024 at 7:17 pm
Joseph Shipman #159,
Agree 100%. This is the top issue for me as well, and for the same reasons.
In fact, the leftists’ assault on free speech in the recent years is the primary reason I switch from Democrats to Republicans. Too much political correctness, censorship, mandatory virtue signaling, cancellations, etc.
I didn’t vote for Trump though for the reasons outlined by OP. Voted for Kennedy so that I could tell my grandkids in the distance future that I voted for Kennedy and observe them trying to calculate my age.
Comment #167 November 16th, 2024 at 5:40 am
A politician I have found refreshing for his independent thought is Fetterman. I don’t agree with all his positions but he is not the usual Progressive automaton that I mistakenly assumed he was. There is hope.
Comment #168 November 16th, 2024 at 10:13 pm
One really bad news for the rest of the world will be the impact of Trump’s second (and third) term on global warming.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/thousands-join-effort-clean-up-catastrophic-spanish-floods-2024-11-02/
The bad news for the USA is that it is now officially a country of fat morons (from the Ancient Greek word moros, which means “dull” or “foolish”) and this is the new definition of “American Exceptionalism”.
I don’t mean this as an insult, it’s a clinical diagnosis based on measurable data, like the weight of the population (71% of adults are now overweight/obese) and the results of the latest election across various population profiles.
Let’s hope RFK Jr will tackle those two terrible health disasters at the same time…
Comment #169 November 17th, 2024 at 11:37 pm
@me #119
That 27-state Turing Machine has now been outdone, by a formally-verified-in-Lean 25-state one. One can I hope find a small amount of joy in this.
I love the disclaimer in the main README of the repo:
Comment #170 November 18th, 2024 at 11:26 pm
Michael P #166: your grandchildren will think you are nuts.
Comment #171 November 19th, 2024 at 6:32 pm
Am I the only one feeling like he’s living in an alternate version of the movie “DON’T LOOK UP”, except that reality is even more of a parody but less funny?
I do recommend this movie, especially if you feel stuck in one of the early stages of grief (denial, anger, depression) and want to move towards acceptance… the ability to laugh at disaster is a good coping mechanism.
Comment #172 November 20th, 2024 at 7:27 am
Hello Scott. Lots of discussion of “revolution” in quantum foundations lately, by which I mean Jacob Barandes and Časlav Brukner appearing on podcasts discussing their ideas. Would love to hear you comment.
Comment #173 November 21st, 2024 at 9:22 pm
If anyone had doubts on the autocorrect feature of Democracy this news should put it to rest. The powerful post of AG nomination falls through the cracks even before it reaches confirmation hearings…why ? , because the power is distributed in a democracy. The Senate has to confirm nomination , and Senators get elected on their own merits, not to mention some of those grumpy old ones don’t even bother about getting reelected.
The general public should focus on further strengthening the democratic institutions and the constitution, rather than any individuals, as individuals are for the present but institutions are for eternity
Comment #174 November 22nd, 2024 at 4:49 am
Escalation is going much faster than I expected. Biden administration tries to fasttrack “defeating Russia” business?
DOD changes nuclear deterrence strategy, making it possible for Putin to do a limited nuclear attack with less fear of nuclear retaliation. Probably in hopes that if Putin chose to do so, political backlash would tear Russia apart. The stakes in the Game are rising.
Comment #175 November 23rd, 2024 at 12:10 pm
Prasana #173
I enjoyed your post-well phrased. I agree with your conclusion.
Comment #176 November 25th, 2024 at 2:55 pm
@Hamish Todd:
I listened to an interview with Barandes, and yeah his stuff sounds cool and all, but I think it becomes less convincing if you know where to look. He argues that QM can be reduced to some special kind of classical processes such that the measurement problem disappears, then he talks for a while about these processes and their time divisibility. But he doesn’t address the big question of Bell inequality violation. Do these stochastic processes involve superluminal messaging or super determinism? At least one of those is needed but either would make the theory a lot less compelling.
That put me in the mood and right after I listened to a recent interview with Avshalom Elitzur, where he talks about his long-held views about QM (such as the “Becoming” idea). I was fascinated by what he thinks. Now he’s been talking about it for near 20 years (so I would not call it a revolution) and part of my fascination is probably because I don’t fully get what he’s saying (or its weaknesses), but still to me it was thought provoking!
Comment #177 November 25th, 2024 at 4:27 pm
Prasanna
the bar was incredibly low there (like, below sea level): a 40-year-old perv who shipped and paid 17-year-olds for sex during drug fueled orgies, and brags about it in congress… he dropped his own candidacy so that GOP senators wouldn’t have to “struggle” with it, with the added bonus that any other new shitty nominations after this will now look “reasonable”…. pheew, what a victory of democratic institutions.
And if the state of our democracy was that healthy, that scumbag wouldn’t have made it to congress in the first place. The institutions are only as good as the people we put in charge of them.
Even authocrats have some kind of “standards”…
Comment #178 December 4th, 2024 at 1:23 am
As a Jew who visited Israel for the first time this year, I 1000% agree with you. I also really loved these quotes. It touches me how so many of us have similar shared experiences at this time.
“Being Jewish is a fundamental part of my humanity—if I didn’t know that before I’d witnessed the world’s reaction to October 7, then I certainly know now.”
“How much time have you spent looking at pro-Israel people on Twitter (Hen Mazzig, Haviv Rettig Gur, etc.), and then—crucially—reading their replies? I spend at least an hour or two per day on that, angry and depressed though it makes me, perhaps because of an instinct to stare into the heart of darkness, not to look away from a genocidal evil arrayed against my family.”
The world’s reaction to 10/7 also has made me so much more aware of the importance of my Jewishness. I naively thought that antisemitism was mostly a thing in the past or for other countries, and it’s clear how wrong I was. I follow Israeli news every day now, which I’d never done once before. I follow Haviv a lot too. I feel deeply betrayed by the left.
Still, aligning ourselves with such a terrible person would be a horrible mistake. As you say, we at least need to preserve the amazing system we have and live to fight another day, not throw it away. It also sounds like Trump also was not in favor of attacking Iran last time, something he and Bibi disagreed on, so I’m not so sure that he will be this time. Now that we’re stuck with him, I hope our pro-Trump/pro-Israel friends are right. All we can do now is hope that the worst probability spaces remain mere probabilities.