{"id":2984,"date":"2016-11-23T20:01:01","date_gmt":"2016-11-24T01:01:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/scottaaronson.blog\/?p=2984"},"modified":"2017-01-12T09:05:53","modified_gmt":"2017-01-12T14:05:53","slug":"a-paper-trail-thats-never-checked-might-as-well-not-exist","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/scottaaronson.blog\/?p=2984","title":{"rendered":"A paper trail that’s never checked might as well not exist"},"content":{"rendered":"

Update and Action Item:<\/b><\/span> Just since late this afternoon, the Jill Stein campaign has already raised more than $1 million toward requesting hand recounts in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. \u00a0Their target is $6-7 million. \u00a0I just donated what I could; if you agree with this post, then please do the same<\/a>. \u00a0It doesn’t matter at this point if you disagree with Stein, or even (like me) think she shouldn’t have run: the goal is just to get a recount to happen before the deadline expires.<\/p>\n

Another Update (11\/24):<\/strong><\/span> In an amazing\u00a0demonstration of the power of online fundraising, the Stein campaign has already, in less than 24 hours, raised the $2.5 million needed to fund a recount in Wisconsin. \u00a0Now they’re working on Pennsylvania and Michigan. \u00a0Amusing that Stein seems finally to have found a winning cause: Hillary! \u00a0(“Fighting for Hillary even when Hillary won’t\u00a0fight for herself.”) \u00a0Again: please donate here<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Third Update (11\/25):<\/strong><\/span> \u00a0The recount is on<\/a> is Wisconsin! \u00a0The Stein campaign hasn’t yet filed in Pennsylvania or Michigan, but will do so next. \u00a0So, all the commenters\u00a0who came here to explain to me that this\u00a0was a scam, no judge would it allow it to go forward, etc.: please update your priors. \u00a0And next time, if you won’t listen to me, at least listen to Alex Halderman…<\/p>\n

\n

This will probably be my last election-related post. \u00a0After this (assuming, of course, that the effort I’m writing about fails…), I plan to encase myself in a bubble, stop reading news, and go back to thinking about quantum lower bounds, as if we\u00a0still lived in a world where it made sense to do so. \u00a0But this is\u00a0important.<\/p>\n

As many of you have probably seen, several\u00a0of the US’s\u00a0top computer security experts, including my former MIT colleague Ron Rivest<\/a> and my childhood friend Alex Halderman<\/a>, have publicly urged that an audit of the US election take place. \u00a0But time is quickly running out<\/strong>. \u00a0If, for example, the Clinton campaign were to request a hand recount, the deadlines would be\u00a0this Friday in Wisconsin, Monday in Pennsylvania, and next Wednesday in Michigan. \u00a0So far, alas, the Clinton campaign seems to have\u00a0shown little interest, which would leave it to one of the third-party candidates to request a recount (they have the legal right too, if they can come up with the money for it). \u00a0In the meantime, I urge everyone to sign a petition<\/a> demanding an audit.<\/p>\n

For me, the key point is this: given the proven insecurity of electronic voting machines, an audit\u00a0of paper ballots ought to be completely routine<\/strong>, even if there weren’t the slightest grounds\u00a0for suspicion. \u00a0In this particular case, of course, we know for a fact (!!) that Russian intelligence\u00a0was engaging in cyber-warfare to\u00a0influence\u00a0the US election. \u00a0We also know that Russia has both the will and the technological ability\u00a0to tamper with foreign elections using vote-stealing malware—indeed, it nearly succeeded<\/a> in doing so in Ukraine’s 2014 election. \u00a0Finally, we\u00a0know that Trump, despite losing the popular vote, surprised just about\u00a0everyone by outperforming his\u00a0polls in three crucial swing states—and that within those states, Trump did systematically better<\/a> in counties that relied on\u00a0electronic voting machines than in counties\u00a0that used scanners and paper ballots.<\/p>\n

Nate Silver has tweeted that he sees no evidence of foul play, since the discrepancy disappears once you control for the education level of the counties\u00a0(for more, see this FiveThirtyEight article<\/a>).<\/p>\n

But that’s the thing. \u00a0In a sane world, skeptics\u00a0wouldn’t need<\/em> to present statistical proof of foul play\u00a0in order to trigger a hand count. \u00a0For if enemy actors\u00a0know that, in practice, hand counts are never going to happen, then they’re free\u00a0to be completely brazen in tampering with the childishly-insecure<\/a> electronic voting machines themselves. \u00a0If no one ever looks at them, then the paper records might as well not exist.<\/p>\n

Would anyone in the 1950s or 60s have believed that, a half-century hence, Russia actually would<\/em>\u00a0acquire the terrifying power over\u00a0the\u00a0US that the right-wing\u00a0Cold Warriors once hyperventilated about—sometimes choosing to exercise that power, sometimes not—and\u00a0that 2016’s conservatives\u00a0would either shrug or\u00a0welcome<\/em> the development, while\u00a0the only people who wanted to take reasonable\u00a0precautions\u00a0were\u00a0a few rabble-rousing professors and activists?<\/p>\n

Fate has decided\u00a0that we should live in a branch of the wavefunction where the worst triumph by flaunting their terribleness\u00a0and where nothing makes sense. \u00a0But however infinitesimal the chances anyone\u00a0will listen, we should still insist\u00a0that the sensible things be done—if nothing else, then simply\u00a0as a way to maintain our own mental connection to the world of sense.<\/p>\n

Happy Thanksgiving.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Update and Action Item: Just since late this afternoon, the Jill Stein campaign has already raised more than $1 million toward requesting hand recounts in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. \u00a0Their target is $6-7 million. \u00a0I just donated what I could; if you agree with this post, then please do the same. \u00a0It doesn’t matter at […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"_wpas_customize_per_network":false},"categories":[16,8],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2984","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-rage-against-doofosity","category-the-fate-of-humanity"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/scottaaronson.blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2984","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/scottaaronson.blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/scottaaronson.blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/scottaaronson.blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/scottaaronson.blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2984"}],"version-history":[{"count":11,"href":"https:\/\/scottaaronson.blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2984\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3002,"href":"https:\/\/scottaaronson.blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2984\/revisions\/3002"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/scottaaronson.blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2984"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/scottaaronson.blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2984"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/scottaaronson.blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2984"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}