{"id":2612,"date":"2016-01-03T09:25:46","date_gmt":"2016-01-03T14:25:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/scottaaronson.blog\/?p=2612"},"modified":"2016-12-10T04:46:39","modified_gmt":"2016-12-10T09:46:39","slug":"edging-in","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/scottaaronson.blog\/?p=2612","title":{"rendered":"Edging in: the biggest science news of 2015"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>For years, I was forced to endure life with my nose up against the glass of the <a href=\"http:\/\/edge.org\/contributors\/what-do-you-consider-the-most-interesting-recent-scientific-news-what-makes-it\">Annual <em>Edge<\/em> Question<\/a>. \u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/edge.org\/annual-question\/what-are-you-optimistic-about\">What are you optimistic about?<\/a> \u00a0Ooh! ooh! Call on me! \u00a0I&#8217;m optimistic about someday being able to <em>prove<\/em> my pessimistic beliefs (like P\u2260NP). \u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/edge.org\/annual-question\/how-is-the-internet-changing-the-way-you-think\">How is the Internet changing the way you think?<\/a> \u00a0Ooh, ooh! I know! Google and MathOverflow are saving me from having to think at all! \u00a0So then why are they only asking Steven Pinker, Freeman Dyson, Richard Dawkins, David Deutsch, some random other people like that?<\/p>\n<p>But all that has changed. \u00a0This year, I was invited to participate in <em>Edge<\/em> for the first time. \u00a0So, OK, here&#8217;s the question:<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\"><strong>What do you consider the most interesting recent [scientific] news? \u00a0What makes it important?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/edge.org\/response-detail\/26637\">My response is here<\/a>. \u00a0I wasn&#8217;t in love\u00a0with the question, because of what I saw as an inherent ambiguity in it: the news that&#8217;s most interesting to <em>me<\/em>, that I have a comparative advantage in talking about, and that people probably want to hear me talk about (e.g., progress in quantum computing), is not necessarily what I&#8217;d regard as the most important\u00a0in any objective sense (e.g., climate change). \u00a0So, I decided to write my answer precisely about my internal tension in what I should consider most interesting: should it be the recent progress by John Martinis and others toward building a quantum computer? \u00a0Or should it be the melting glaciers, or something else that I&#8217;m confident will affect the future of the world? \u00a0Or possibly the mainstream attention now\u00a0being paid to the AI-risk movement? \u00a0But if I really want to nerd out, then why not\u00a0Babai&#8217;s graph isomorphism algorithm? \u00a0Or if I <em>actually<\/em>\u00a0want to be honest about what excited me, then why not the superquadratic separations between classical and quantum query complexities for a total Boolean function, by Ambainis et al. and my student Shalev Ben-David? \u00a0On the other hand, how can I justify even caring about such things while the glaciers are melting?<\/p>\n<p>So, yeah, my response tries to meditate on all those things. \u00a0My original title was &#8220;How nerdy do you want it?,&#8221; but John Brockman of Edge had me change it to something blander (&#8220;How widely should we draw the circle?&#8221;), and made a bunch of other changes from my usual style. \u00a0Initially I chafed at having an <em>editor<\/em> for what basically amounted to a blog post; on the other hand, I&#8217;m sure I would&#8217;ve gotten in trouble much less often on this blog had I had someone to filter my words for me.<\/p>\n<p>Anyway, of course I wasn&#8217;t the only person to write about the climate crisis. \u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/edge.org\/response-detail\/26578\">Robert Trivers<\/a>, <a href=\"http:\/\/edge.org\/response-detail\/26685\">Laurence Smith<\/a>, and <a href=\"http:\/\/edge.org\/response-detail\/26591\">Milford Wolpoff<\/a> all wrote about it as well\u00a0(Trivers most chillingly and concisely), while <a href=\"http:\/\/edge.org\/response-detail\/26687\">Max Tegmark<\/a> wrote about the mainstreaming of AI risk. \u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/edge.org\/response-detail\/26712\">John Naughton<\/a> even wrote about Babai&#8217;s graph isomorphism breakthrough (though he seems unaware that the existing GI algorithms were already extremely fast in practice, and therefore makes misleading claims about the new algorithm&#8217;s practical applications). \u00a0Unsurprisingly, no one else wrote about breakthroughs in quantum query complexity: you&#8217;ll need to go to <em>my<\/em> essay for that! \u00a0A bit more surprisingly, no one besides me wrote about progress in quantum computing at all (if we don&#8217;t count the loophole-free Bell test).<\/p>\n<p>Anyway, on reflection, <strong>2015 actually\u00a0was a pretty awesome year for science<\/strong>, no matter how nerdy you want it or how widely you draw the circle. \u00a0Here are other advances that\u00a0I easily could&#8217;ve\u00a0written\u00a0about but didn&#8217;t:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>PH has finally been <a href=\"http:\/\/arxiv.org\/abs\/1504.03398\">proven infinite<\/a> relative to a random oracle<\/li>\n<li>We finally understand why computing the <a href=\"http:\/\/arxiv.org\/abs\/1412.0348\">edit distance<\/a> between two strings takes nearly-quadratic time<\/li>\n<li>Terry Tao <a href=\"http:\/\/arxiv.org\/abs\/1509.05363\">solved the Erd\u00f6s Discrepancy Problem<\/a><\/li>\n<li>The loophole-free Bell test that I <a href=\"https:\/\/scottaaronson.blog\/?p=2464\">blogged about here<\/a> (<a href=\"http:\/\/edge.org\/response-detail\/26790\">Anton Zeilinger<\/a> and <a href=\"http:\/\/edge.org\/response-detail\/26748\">Hans Halvorson<\/a> discussed this in their <em>Edge<\/em> answers)<\/li>\n<li>Recent progress on the emergence of spacetime from entanglement, and understanding the role of computational complexity in quantum gravity (<a href=\"http:\/\/edge.org\/response-detail\/26656\">Lenny Susskind<\/a>, <a href=\"http:\/\/edge.org\/response-detail\/26783\">Amanda Gefter<\/a>, and <a href=\"http:\/\/edge.org\/response-detail\/26563\">Donald Hoffman<\/a> all discussed these things in their <em>Edge<\/em> answers)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>I&#8217;ve now read all\u00a0(more or less) of this year&#8217;s <em>Edge<\/em> responses. \u00a0Even though some\u00a0of the respondents pushed personal hobbyhorses like I&#8217;d feared, I was impressed by how easy\u00a0it was\u00a0to discern <em>themes<\/em>:\u00a0advances\u00a0that kept cropping up in one answer after another and that one might therefore guess are actually\u00a0important (or at least, are currently <em>perceived<\/em> to be important).<\/p>\n<p>Probably at the top of the list was a new gene-editing technique called CRISPR: <a href=\"http:\/\/edge.org\/response-detail\/26668\">Randolph Neese<\/a>, <a href=\"http:\/\/edge.org\/response-detail\/26638\">Paul Dolan<\/a>, <a href=\"http:\/\/edge.org\/response-detail\/26683\">Eric Topol<\/a>, <a href=\"http:\/\/edge.org\/response-detail\/26605\">Mark Pagel<\/a>, and <a href=\"http:\/\/edge.org\/response-detail\/26605\">Stuart Firestein<\/a>\u00a0among others all wrote about this, and about its implications for creating designer humans.<\/p>\n<p>Also widely-discussed was the discovery that most psychology studies fail to replicate (I&#8217;d long assumed as much, but apparently this was big news in psychology!): <a href=\"http:\/\/edge.org\/response-detail\/26648\">Nicholas Humphrey<\/a>, <a href=\"http:\/\/edge.org\/response-detail\/26650\">Stephen Kosslyn<\/a>, <a href=\"http:\/\/edge.org\/response-detail\/26751\">Jonathan Schooler<\/a>, <a href=\"http:\/\/edge.org\/response-detail\/26695\">Ellen Winner<\/a>, <a href=\"http:\/\/edge.org\/response-detail\/26682\">Judith Rich Harris<\/a>, and <a href=\"http:\/\/edge.org\/response-detail\/26659\">Philip Tetlock<\/a> all wrote about that.<\/p>\n<p>Then there was the Pluto flyby, which <a href=\"http:\/\/edge.org\/response-detail\/26595\">Juan Enriquez<\/a>, <a href=\"http:\/\/edge.org\/response-detail\/26580\">Roger Highfield<\/a>, and <a href=\"http:\/\/edge.org\/response-detail\/26740\">Nicholas Christakis<\/a> all wrote about. \u00a0(As Christakis, Master of Silliman College at Yale, was so recently a victim of a\u00a0social-justice mob, I found it moving how he simply ignored those baying for his head and turned his attention heavenward in his <em>Edge<\/em> answer.)<\/p>\n<p>Then there was progress in deep learning, including Google&#8217;s Deep Dream (those <a href=\"http:\/\/d.ibtimes.co.uk\/en\/full\/1447156\/nebula-photograph-captured-by-hubble-telescope.jpg?w=762\">images of dogs in nebulae<\/a> that filled your Facebook wall) and DeepMind (the program that taught itself how to play dozens of classic video games). \u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/edge.org\/response-detail\/26689\">Steve Omohundro<\/a>, <a href=\"http:\/\/edge.org\/response-detail\/26635\">Andy Clark<\/a>, <a href=\"http:\/\/edge.org\/response-detail\/26629\">Jamshed Bharucha<\/a>, <a href=\"http:\/\/edge.org\/response-detail\/26780\">Kevin Kelly<\/a>, <a href=\"http:\/\/edge.org\/response-detail\/26794\">David Dalrymple<\/a>, and <a href=\"http:\/\/edge.org\/response-detail\/26587\">Alexander Wissner-Gross<\/a> all wrote about different aspects of this story.<\/p>\n<p>And recent progress in SETI, which <a href=\"http:\/\/edge.org\/response-detail\/26739\">Yuri Milner<\/a> (who&#8217;s given $100 million for it) and <a href=\"http:\/\/edge.org\/response-detail\/26577\">Mario Livio<\/a> wrote about.<\/p>\n<p>Unsurprisingly, a bunch of high-energy physicists\u00a0wrote about high-energy physics at the LHC: how the Higgs boson was found (still news?), how nothing <em>other<\/em> than the Higgs boson was found (the biggest news?), but how there&#8217;s now the slightest\u00a0<em>hint<\/em>\u00a0of a new particle at 750 GeV. \u00a0See <a href=\"http:\/\/edge.org\/response-detail\/26610\">Lee Smolin<\/a>, <a href=\"http:\/\/edge.org\/response-detail\/26703\">Garrett Lisi<\/a>, <a href=\"http:\/\/edge.org\/response-detail\/26611\">Sean Carroll<\/a>, and <a href=\"http:\/\/edge.org\/response-detail\/26732\">Sarah Demers<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Finally, way out on the Pareto frontier of importance and disgustingness was the recently-discovered therapeutic value of transplanting one person&#8217;s poop into another person&#8217;s intestines, which <a href=\"http:\/\/edge.org\/response-detail\/26746\">Joichi Ito<\/a>, <a href=\"http:\/\/edge.org\/response-detail\/26788\">Pamela Rosenkranz<\/a>, and <a href=\"http:\/\/edge.org\/response-detail\/26731\">Alan Alda<\/a> all wrote about (it also, predictably, featured in a recent <em>South Park<\/em> episode).<\/p>\n<p>Without further ado, here are 27 other answers that struck me in one way or another:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/edge.org\/response-detail\/26616\">Steven Pinker<\/a> on happy happy things are getting better (and we can measure it)<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/edge.org\/response-detail\/26738\">Freeman Dyson<\/a> on the Dragonfly astronomical observatory<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/edge.org\/response-detail\/26766\">Jonathan Haidt<\/a> on\u00a0how prejudice against people of differing political opinions was discovered to have surpassed racial, gender, and religious prejudice<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/edge.org\/response-detail\/26786\">S. Abbas Raza<\/a> on Piketty&#8217;s r&gt;g<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/edge.org\/response-detail\/26654\">Rebecca Newberger Goldstein<\/a>, thoughtful as usual, on the recent study that said\u00a0it&#8217;s too simple to say female participation is lower in STEM fields&#8212;rather, female participation is lower in all and only those fields, STEM or non-STEM, whose participants believe\u00a0(rightly or wrongly) that &#8220;genius&#8221; is required rather than just conscientious\u00a0effort<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/edge.org\/response-detail\/26675\">Bill Joy<\/a> on recent advances on reducing CO<sub>2<\/sub> emissions<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/edge.org\/response-detail\/26785\">Paul Steinhardt<\/a> on recent observations saying that, not only were the previous &#8220;B-modes from inflation&#8221; just galactic dust, but there are <em>no<\/em>\u00a0real B-modes to within the\u00a0current detection limits, and this poses a problem for inflation (I hadn&#8217;t heard about this last part)<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/edge.org\/response-detail\/26701\">Aubrey de Grey<\/a> on new antibiotics that are grown in the soil rather than in lab cultures<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/edge.org\/response-detail\/26714\">John Tooby<\/a> on the evolutionary rationale for germline engineering<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/edge.org\/response-detail\/26713\">W. Tecumseh Fitch<\/a> on the coming reality of the &#8220;Jurassic Park program&#8221; (bringing back extinct species through DNA splicing&#8212;though probably not dinosaurs, whose DNA is too degraded)<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/edge.org\/response-detail\/26667\">Keith Devlin<\/a> on the new prospect of using massive datasets (from MOOCs, for example) to <em>actually<\/em> figure out how students learn<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/edge.org\/response-detail\/26644\">Richard Muller<\/a> on how air pollution in China has become one of the world&#8217;s worst\u00a0problems\u00a0(imagine every child in Beijing being force-fed two packs of cigarettes per day)<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/edge.org\/response-detail\/26658\">Ara Norenzayan<\/a> on the\u00a0demographic trends in religious belief<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/edge.org\/response-detail\/26622\">James Croak<\/a> on amazing advances in battery technology (which were news to me)<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/edge.org\/response-detail\/26621\">Buddhini Samarasinghe<\/a> on (among other things) the power of aspirin to <em>possibly prevent cancer<\/em><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/edge.org\/response-detail\/26619\">Todd Sacktor<\/a> on a new treatment for Parkinson&#8217;s<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/edge.org\/response-detail\/26764\">Charles Seife<\/a> on the imminent availability of data about pretty much everything in our lives<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/edge.org\/response-detail\/26777\">Susan Blackmore<\/a> on &#8220;that dress&#8221; and what it revealed about the human visual system<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/edge.org\/response-detail\/26759\">Brian Keating<\/a> on experiments that should soon tell us the neutrinos&#8217; masses (again, I hadn&#8217;t heard about these)<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/edge.org\/response-detail\/26752\">Michael McCullough<\/a> on something called &#8220;reproductive religiosity theory,&#8221; which posits that the central purpose of religions is to enforce\u00a0social norms around mating and reproduction\u00a0(for what it&#8217;s worth, I&#8217;d always regarded that as obvious; it&#8217;s even expounded in the last chapter of <em>Quantum Computing Since Democritus<\/em>)<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/edge.org\/response-detail\/26754\">Greg Cochran<\/a> on the origin of Europeans<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/edge.org\/response-detail\/26747\">David Buss<\/a> on the &#8220;mating crisis among educated women&#8221;<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/edge.org\/response-detail\/26606\">Ed Regis<\/a> on how high-fat diets are better (except, isn&#8217;t this the principle behind Atkins, and isn&#8217;t this pretty old news by now?)<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/edge.org\/response-detail\/26720\">Melanie Swan<\/a> on blockchain-based cryptography, such as Bitcoin (though it wasn&#8217;t entirely clear to me what point Swan was making about it)<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/edge.org\/response-detail\/26599\">Paul Davies<\/a> on LIGO getting ready to detect its first gravitational waves<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/edge.org\/response-detail\/26597\">Samuel Arbesman<\/a> on how weather prediction has gotten steadily\u00a0better (rendering our culture&#8217;s jokes about the perpetually-wrong weatherman outdated, with hardly anyone noticing)<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/edge.org\/response-detail\/26626\">Alison Gopnik<\/a> on how the ubiquity of touchscreen devices like the iPad means that toddlers can now master computers, and this is something genuinely new under the sun (I can testify from personal experience that she&#8217;s onto something)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Then there were three answers for which the &#8220;progress&#8221; being celebrated, seemed to me to be progress racing faster into WrongVille:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/edge.org\/response-detail\/26690\">Frank Tipler<\/a> on how one can conclude a priori\u00a0that there must be a Big Crunch to our future (and hence, the arena for Tiplerian theology) in order to prevent the black hole information paradox from arising, all recent cosmological evidence to the contrary\u00a0be damned.<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/edge.org\/response-detail\/26757\">Ross Anderson<\/a>\u00a0on an exciting conference whose participants\u00a0aim to replace quantum mechanics with local realistic theories. \u00a0(Anderson, in particular, is totally wrong\u00a0that you can get Bell inequality violation from &#8220;a combination of local action and global correlation,&#8221; unless the global correlation goes as far as a &#8216;t-Hooft-like superdeterministic conspiracy.)<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/edge.org\/response-detail\/26607\">Gordon Kane<\/a> on how the big news is that the LHC should\u00a0soon\u00a0see superparticles. \u00a0(This would actually be fine except that Kane omits\u00a0the crucial context, that he&#8217;s been predicting superparticles just around the corner again and again\u00a0for the past twenty years and they&#8217;ve never shown up)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Finally, two responses by old friends that amused me. \u00a0The science-fiction writer\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/edge.org\/response-detail\/26594\">Rudy Rucker<\/a> just became aware of the discovery of the dark energy back in 1998, and considers that to be exciting scientific news (yes, Rudy, so it was!). \u00a0And\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/edge.org\/response-detail\/26773\">Michael Vassar<\/a>\u00a0&#8212;the Kevin Bacon or Paul Erd\u00f6s of the rationalist world, the guy who <em>everyone<\/em>&#8216;s connected to somehow&#8212;writes something about a global breakdown of economic rationality, $20 bills on the sidewalk getting ignored, that I had trouble understanding (though the fault is probably mine).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>For years, I was forced to endure life with my nose up against the glass of the Annual Edge Question. \u00a0What are you optimistic about? \u00a0Ooh! ooh! Call on me! \u00a0I&#8217;m optimistic about someday being able to prove my pessimistic beliefs (like P\u2260NP). \u00a0How is the Internet changing the way you think? \u00a0Ooh, ooh! I [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"jetpack_seo_schema_type":"","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"{title}\n\n{excerpt}\n\n{url}","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"_wpas_customize_per_network":false,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[5,11,4,8],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2612","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-complexity","category-nerd-interest","category-quantum","category-the-fate-of-humanity"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/scottaaronson.blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2612","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/scottaaronson.blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/scottaaronson.blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/scottaaronson.blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/scottaaronson.blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2612"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/scottaaronson.blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2612\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2616,"href":"https:\/\/scottaaronson.blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2612\/revisions\/2616"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/scottaaronson.blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2612"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/scottaaronson.blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2612"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/scottaaronson.blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2612"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}